Finding an upgrade on defense

The constant turnover that prevented the Buffalo Sabres from building around its franchise pillars has stopped. Finally, there’s stability throughout the organization’s hockey operations and General Manager Kevyn Adams successfully signed core players after identifying which of the holdovers from the previous regime fit his vision for the franchise.

The Sabres are a popular pick to make a playoff run next spring, which, if accurate, would snap a 12-year drought. There are few holes on the roster and $14.459 million to spend for next season, according to CapFriendly.com.

Adams won’t bail on his long-term plan for short-term gains. His intent is to improve his team around the margins by using some of his assets on the trade market, but he won’t walk away from top prospects or high draft picks.

With his plan in mind, here’s how I would approach each step of a pivotal offseason for the Sabres.

Our first move of the offseason is to extend a qualifying offer to four of the Sabres’ five restricted free agents to retain their rights for next season: forward Tyson Jost, defenseman Kale Clague, winger Brett Murray and winger Linus Weissbach. Weissbach doesn’t require waivers to join the Amerks, so we can have him continue to develop under coach Seth Appert. Winger Lukas Rousek already received a two-year contract from Buffalo.

We’ll walk away from forward Matej Pekar, a fourth-round draft pick in 2018. He’s had trouble staying healthy and no longer fits in the prospect pipeline with so few spots available in Rochester.

Keeping Jost is a priority. He was an ideal fit for the Sabres on and off the ice. His versatility will provide Granato options when building a lineup. Jost, 25, might prefer a multi-year deal, but we’ll bring him back with a one-year, $2.5 million contract. Clague, 25, is another important depth piece, and he’ll be needed if there’s an injury on the NHL roster. We’ll sign Clague to a one-year, two-way contract worth $787,500 with the intent to send him to Rochester before the season begins.

Rousek is back on a two-year contract – the second year is a one-way – and I’d make a similar offer to Weissbach. I’ll reveal my plan for Murray later, but he can’t be sent to the Amerks next season without clearing waivers. The Sabres blocked Murray by acquiring Jordan Greenway before the trade deadline in March.

Completing a contract extension for defenseman Rasmus Dahlin would be my top priority. It’s important to have a clearer picture of the team’s salary-cap space for future seasons. We’ll sign the 23-year-old to an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $10 million when he’s eligible on July 1.

Next, it’s time to try to get Owen Power signed long-term. He and his agent, Pat Brisson, will ponder whether it makes more sense to agree to a bridge contract because Power can position himself for a much larger payday in a few years. After all, Power should amass more points as the Sabres’ second power-play unit improves with the development of young forwards JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn. In this scenario, Power signs a three-year contract that carries a $6 million average annual value. 

The Sabres re-signed Zemgus Girgensons to a one-year contract because he’s an exceptional leader in the dressing room and his style of play can be a beacon to young players who are learning the importance of working hard defensively.

It was going to be challenging to find a replacement for Girgensons if he signed elsewhere. Forwards with his skill set are receiving multi-year contracts in free agency, and the Sabres have no interest in blocking Rousek, Weissbach and Tyson Kozak.

I’ll walk away from the following pending unrestricted free agents: Vinnie Hinostroza, Jeremy Davies, Austin Strand and Malcolm Subban. My preference is to retain Subban in case we’re not able to pass Eric Comrie through waivers to join Rochester, but we won’t be able to convince Subban to stay after his career year with the Amerks. He signs with another team to be its No. 3 goalie. Strand and Davies are expendable because of the prospects who are expected to be in Rochester, as well as our decision to retain Clague.

We’ll re-sign the following players with the intent to have them in Rochester next season: Sean Malone, Joseph Cecconi and Michael Houser. The Amerks also will need to re-sign a few important players to AHL contracts, most notably Mason Jobst and Kohen Olischefski. Here’s how I envision the Amerks’ roster looking if we successfully pass players through waivers:

Center: Malone, Jobst, Brandon Biro and Tyson Kozak.

Wingers: Rousek, Weissbach, Olischefski, Viktor Neuchev, Isak Rosen, Aleksandr Kisakov, Filip Cederqvist, Olivier Nadeau, Michael Mersch.

Defensemen: Cecconi, Clague, Ryan Johnson, Nikita Novikov, Zach Metsa, Ethan Prow.

Goalies: Comrie and Houser.

Matt Savoie, whom the Sabres drafted ninth overall in 2022, cannot play for the Amerks in the regular season unless it’s on a conditioning assignment because of the NHL’s development agreement with the Canadian Hockey League. My plan, which is an option for the Sabres, is to carry Savoie on the NHL roster at the start of the season.

I’m approaching this exercise with the intent to have Savoie gain valuable NHL experience for several weeks at the start of the season by getting him in the lineup against certain opponents. Then, we’ll scratch him long enough to make him eligible to join Rochester on a conditioning assignment. Savoie will play several games for Appert, then represent Canada at the IIHF World Junior Championship. At the conclusion of the tournament, Savoie will return to the Western Hockey League for the remainder of the junior hockey season. He can be assigned to the Amerks once his junior team’s season is complete.

The Sabres glaring need is a top-four defenseman. Don Granato couldn’t trust his third pair in the final weeks of the regular season, forcing him to overuse Dahlin, Power, Mattias Samuelsson and Henri Jokiharju. The team is very high on Jokiharju and remains confident that he’ll improve. He’d be an excellent partner for Riley Stillman or Ilya Lybushkin. Adding another blue-line option would put Jokiharju in a position to succeed and ensure there’s adequate depth.

My big splash of the offseason is trading winger Victor Olofsson, the rights to winger Brett Murray and Buffalo’s first-round draft pick in 2024 to the Carolina Hurricanes for defenseman Brett Pesce. The Hurricanes reportedly want to re-sign Pesce, but their owner rarely wants to hand out big checks. Olofsson, like Pesce, is entering the final year of his contract and addresses their need for a goal-scorer. It’s better to move Murray in a trade than lose him for nothing. Carolina wants to become a heavier team and Murray is ready for a role in the NHL.

Adams would prefer to acquire a defenseman with term on his contract, but the acquisition cost is going to be high and there aren’t many available. Pesce was at the USA Hockey National Team Development Program at the same time as Granato, and he was drafted by the Hurricanes when Sabres associate general manager Jason Karmanos was in Carolina. If the Hurricanes manage to re-sign Pesce, I’d pivot to Calgary Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin with a similar trade package.

We need to create a roster spot to carry Savoie at the start of the season, so I’m trading defenseman Jacob Bryson to the Seattle Kraken for a sixth-round draft pick. Jason Botterill, now an assistant general manager in Seattle, drafted Bryson and the club will need blue-line depth if it can’t re-sign Carson Soucy.

The acquisition cost for Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck and Philadelphia’s Carter Hart is too high. There isn’t a quality option in unrestricted free agency, either. Tristan Jarry is often-injured, Joonas Korpisalo will want term, Frederik Andersen is expected return to Carolina and Semyon Varlamov is reportedly going back to the New York Islanders. The other candidates aren’t upgrades over Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.

This situation would be easier if Luukkonen were still exempt from waivers. We’d be able to bet on a free-agent veteran on a one-year contract. However, we can’t send him to Rochester without every other team having an opportunity to claim him. Carolina doesn’t need a young goalie, so it’s not going to want Luukkonen in the Pesce trade. Calgary wouldn’t want Luukkonen, either, if we have to pivot to Hanifin as our defense target because the Flames have Dustin Wolf. 

It’s a significant risk to carry Luukkonen, Comrie and Devon Levi into training camp. 

However, there isn’t a goalie on the trade or free-agent market that fits with Adams’ plan in the short or long term. I’d call the Arizona Coyotes about Karel Vejmelka, but their asking price, combined with what I sent to Carolina for Pesce, is enough to scare me off. The Vancouver Canucks are keeping Thatcher Demko, who would be at the top of my wish list.

My confidence in a young tandem is higher than that of other reporters and analysts. The improvement on defense, combined with the development of inexperienced forwards, should lead to fewer quality scoring chances against. We saw in the final weeks of the season how a better team game helped Levi. He’s the guy next season and beyond. There’s confidence within the Sabres’ organization that Luukkonen will be better now that he finally has internal competition, but he won’t receive another opportunity if he falters. 

My wish list for a Girgensons replacement was short. New Jersey’s Miles Wood was at the top, but he’s projected by Evolving-Hockey to receive a three-year contract. Tampa Bay Lightning forward Ross Colton was next because he’s a restricted free agent on a cap-crunched team and his next contract is projected at $3.351 million per season.

If those two options weren’t realistic because of the term on their next contracts, I was going to pivot to one of Girgensons’ buddies from Latvia: center Teddy Blueger, who played for the Pittsburgh Penguins when Karmanos was there with Jim Rutherford.

Blueger is fierce competitor, and his work ethic is revered. He appeared in six playoff games for the Vegas Golden Knights during their run to the Stanley Cup after his trade from Pittsburgh before the deadline. We’ll give Blueger a one-year, $1.6 million contract. He’ll bolster the penalty kill, compete for ice time and wins faceoffs. Blueger is my top target if Jost opts to play elsewhere next season. 

To protect ourselves in case Comrie is claimed on waivers, I’m signing goalie Hunter Shepard, who defeated Rochester in the AHL’s Eastern Conference final as starting goalie for the Hershey Bears. 

There will be a few additional depth signings, particularly on defense, but this takes care of the NHL roster. Rousek and Weissbach will be among the first players recalled if there’s an injury. 

Here’s a look at how I view this lineup coming together with forward lines, defense pairs and goalies:

Jeff Skinner–Tage Thompson–Alex Tuch.

JJ Peterka–Dylan Cozens–Jack Quinn.

Casey Mittelstadt–Tyson Jost–Jiri Kulich.

Jordan Greenway–Peyton Krebs–Kyle Okposo.

Rasmus Dahlin–Mattias Samuelsson.

Owen Power–Brett Pesce.

Henri Jokiharju–Ilya Lyubushkin.

Extras: Matt Savoie, Tyson Jost, Riley Stillman.

Goalies: Devon Levi, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.