An electric “dolphin” launching at Sea World could be responsible for creating a new wave through Australia’s automotive industry.
That is the prediction of market experts, who say the launch of BYD’s Dolphin electric car next week could start a price battle among other manufacturers and make the technology accessible to a wider audience.
But they warn Australia still needs better policies to ensure the competition takes hold and more consumer education about the ultimate price – and price savings – of the new vehicles.
BYD’s latest launch, set for next Thursday on the Gold Coast, triggered widespread speculation after the company promised it would deliver “the most affordable, high-quality EV launched in Australia”.
While predictions about its local cost have raged, the electric car is expected to undercut the current record of $43,990 offered by other Chinese brands, MG and GWM.
Electric Vehicle Council chief executive Behyad Jafari says the promise highlights growing downward pressure on next-generation car technology – pressure that is likely to intensify by the federal government’s commitment to introduce a fuel-efficiency standard in coming months.
“Whether it’s this car or another, we are seeing electric vehicle prices fall,” he said.
“It won’t be long before we see electric vehicles in the $30,000 price ranges and we saw sales pick up pretty quickly when $40,000 electric vehicles became available.”
The prices are a long way from where Australian buyers were as little as four years ago, he says, when “the most popular electric vehicle cost around $120,000”.
Four battery-powered cars are now available in Australia with a price tag under $50,000, even though the most popular electric vehicle in the country, the Tesla Model Y, costs $68,900.
Splend chief executive Chris King, whose company procures electric vehicles for rideshare subscriptions, says falling costs are overdue in Australia, which has missed out on the mass-market models and growing competition seen in many other countries.
“The way the EV space has developed, they’ve started with the more premium segment and they’re moving down to more cost-effective segments as production costs come down and they reach scale,” he said.
“We’ve seen (cheaper EVs) in London for more than three years now and they’re the same kind of cars that we’ll see in Australia.”
Mr King says a “sharp price point” for the BYD Dolphin could set the tone for the electric vehicle market and inspire competition from other automotive brands that have yet to launch electric cars in Australia.
“Over the next 12 months, I think we’ll start to see the likes of Volkswagen here… and there’s some really good products coming out from Kia and Hyundai,” he said.
“The more choice and the more price competition, the more people who can afford to get into an EV.”
Australian Electric Vehicle Association national president Dr Chris Jones says there are still questions about whether BYD’s Dolphin will be the first electric car to break the $40,000 barrier, however.
Its New Zealand pricing, equivalent to $45,000, raised concerns the car could fall short of the record, even though added costs between the nearby markets are different.
“Any car price that starts with a three will be hot news,” Dr Jones said.
“If the driveway price is under $40,000 that will be a real breakthrough.”
It is also no accident that a Chinese vehicle brand is leading the price trend, he says.
Vehicle sales data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries shows China became the fourth largest source of new cars in Australia last year, narrowing the lead from Japan, Thailand and South Korea.
And strong demand for electric vehicles in the country, where the cars made up 19 per cent of all new sales in 2022, is fuelling demand for local brands to produce a wider range of vehicles, Dr Jones says.
“The Chinese manufacturers have volume on their side,” he said.
“The vast majority of products they make get sold locally into the Chinese market and that’s enormous so they’ve got numbers to make low-margin vehicles viable.”
Australia may not see all the vehicles offered in China, he says, like the $16,000 BYD Seagull released earlier this year, though its release could encourage other automakers to push into the $20,000 price range in Australia.
Despite the focus the purchase price of electric vehicles, Mr Jafari says they may become less relevant to those considering an investment.
In addition to state-based incentives of up to $6000 and fringe-benefit tax cuts, Mr Jafari says consumers should be encouraged to consider the total cost of owning a car, from petrol to regular servicing.
“We’re used to thinking about buying cars purely in terms of the up-front price because all petrol costs were largely the same,” he said.
“With an electric car, you’re actually going to make savings back of more than $2000 a year, every year, from lower fuel and maintenance costs.
“That does make a pretty big difference.”