Round 12 of the AFL saw the first of four bye rounds come and go and we were treated to some phenomenal games (how good was Sunday!?) and some not-so-good footy (hello Carlton).
What are the cases for and against teams making the finals, top four and even winning the premiership in 2023?
COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES – 1st (11-1)
- Premiership: $3.25
- Minor Premiership: $1.70
- To make Grand Final: $1.85
(odds via Ladbrokes)
The Magpies won again, as expected, tightening a stranglehold on the betting for premiership, top four and minor premiership.
What did we learn from the game against West Coast?
That the Magpies are beatable.
Take out the typical last quarter rampage for Collingwood and go to the 23rd minute mark of the third quarter: if Andrew Gaff kicks the goal, the margin is just nine points. Instead he misses and Collingwood kick nine of the next 10 goals to cartwheel away.
We’ll know more later in the week if any of the knocks to Will Hoskin-Elliott and Ash Johnson are of any issue, but the big worry is the looming suspension of Jordan De Goey.
Playing it safe it looks to be a minimum three weeks.
The Pies have a HUGE game on Monday against Melbourne at the MCG before the bye and then take on Adelaide at the MCG following that.
For punters, if Collingwood happen to lose this weekend, there will be a better price post-bye.
BRISBANE LIONS – 4th (8-3)
- Premiership: $5
- Top four finish: $1.30
(odds via Ladbrokes)
The Lions had the bye after the loss to the Crows in round 11.
A trip to the MCG against Hawthorn awaits this weekend.
Let’s see if the Lions can travel and win before they take on the Swans next weekend at the Gabba.
There’s not much of an edge in current betting; if they win (and win well) away from home that might change.
AFL Round 12. Jacob van Rooyen of the Demons celebrates a 2nd quarter goal. Picture Michael Klein.
MELBOURNE DEMONS – 3rd (8-4)
- Premiership: $5.50
- Top Four finish: $1.55
(odds via Ladbrokes)
The Demons were hardly convincing in the win over Carlton on Friday night, but a win is a win and it keeps the Dees on the fringe of the top four.
The worry is that in the last month the Dees have scored 312 points at an average of 78 per game. Thankfully the Dees are two from four in the last month which softens that blow a little bit.
With the return of Clayton Oliver likely this weekend, the Dees have a massive boost ahead of the King’s Birthday game against Collingwood at the MCG on Monday.
PORT ADELAIDE POWER – 2nd (10-2)
- Premiership: $6.50
- Minor Premiership: $5.50
(odds via Ladbrokes)
We said it a month ago about Port, that they were well set up for a top four finish.
After the last two weeks, what about a minor premiership?
The Power are one game behind Collingwood currently and Port are the most in-form team in the AFL.
The first half against Hawthorn on Saturday was the best footy any team has played this year (16 goals was phenomenal). Yes the second half was a dip, but the game was over.
Zak Butters and Connor Rozee continue to dominate the midfield with 55 disposals and two goals between them and if that form keeps up Port will keep winning.
With six more games at the Adelaide Oval, plus Carlton and the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium (where they have won their last nine) a small bet at $5.50 for the Minor Premiership is good value.
Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins of the Cats celebrates a goal. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images
GEELONG CATS – 8th (6-6)
- Premiership: $9.50
- Top eight finish: $1.40
(odds via Ladbrokes)
The Cats turned around their recent form with a runaway victory over the Western Bulldogs.
The bye comes at an important time for Geelong with plenty of their older players needing a break or due to return from injury.
6-6 isn’t exactly where folks expected the premiers to be after 12 games, but the Cats are still the best attacking team in the AFL with 1188 points scored for the season.
A trip to the Adelaide Oval to take on the Power post bye will give punters a great guide on Geelong.
WESTERN BULLDOGS – 7th (7-5)
- Premiership: $19
- Top eight finish: $1.40
- To miss top eight: $2.30
(odds via Ladbrokes)
Here comes the slide: it has been said by the column all year that the Western Bulldogs can’t score and it will stop them from winning games of footy.
Once again on the weekend, the Bulldogs got its total into the 70s and did everything in their power to not get to 80+.
They succeeded.
It was a game they should have won and, again, they didn’t.
The thread in five of the Bulldogs seven wins this year? Scores of 80+.
All five losses? Less than 80.
The Bulldogs beat Brisbane at Marvel, Adelaide in Ballarat – two teams with big question marks about away from home – and an out of sorts Fremantle, who have won four of five since.
Win all the possession stats you want – as the Bulldogs did so on Saturday with nine of the top 10 possession getters on the ground wearing Bulldogs colours – but it doesn‘t matter if you don’t win.
As said last week, back the Bulldogs to miss the eight. Averaging 78 points scored per game isn’t the path to continued success.
FREMANTLE DOCKERS – 10th (6-5)
- Premiership: $26
- Top eight finish: $1.90
- To miss top eight: $1.72
(odds via Ladbrokes)
The Dockers had the bye, but have won four of its last five games.
A big month awaits with games at home against Richmond and Essendon.
With away games against GWS and Western Bulldogs all shaping as key clashes if the Dockers are to make the top eight.
Reilly O’Brien of the Crows looks dejected after a loss in Round 12. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images
ADELAIDE CROWS – 12th (6-6)
- Premiership: $26
- Top eight finish: $2.15
- To miss top eight: $1.75
(odds via Ladbrokes)
What happened on Saturday night? The Crows were up by 35 points at one stage and got mauled by Gold Coast of all teams.
As said last week, Adelaide (prior to last round) averaged 99 points per game at home and only 70 per game away: at least they improved that average by scoring 87 on Saturday night.
But the Crows are now 1-4 away from Adelaide Oval.
Izak Rankine and Josh Racehele went missing when it mattered most. At least Tex Walker and Darcy Fogarty had five goals between them, no complaints there and same goes for Jordan Dawson who had 30 and a goal.
The Crows should move to 7-6 this weekend with a win over West Coast before the bye.
ESSENDON BOMBERS – 6th (7-5)
- Premiership: $34
- Top eight finish: $1.85
- To miss top eight: $1.90
(odds via Ladbrokes)
“Yeah we banked the points and that is all that matters,” said an Essendon mate of mine on Monday morning over a coffee.
Look into the eyes of those Essendon fans and there is stress about the win over North Melbourne on Sunday, despite the victory. There is the worry of expecting this Bombers team to go on with the job.
Essendon are currently fifth for points scored in 2023 (Brisbane are 6th with 3 points less and a game in hand) but have leaked the sixth most points in 2023.
If the Bombers can fix up the defence, they are in the conversation for sure.
The lucky part is that they now play a team that couldn’t currently kick a score on an Auskick squad.
So how enticing is the game against Carlton on Sunday evening now?
SYDNEY SWANS – 12th (5-6)
- Premiership: $41
- Top eight finish: $3.25
- To miss top eight: $1.35
(odds via Ladbrokes)
The Swans had the bye week off, letting some of those battered bodies get a needed rest.
Tom McCartin and Dane Rampe are due to come back in the next two weeks, which is huge for the Swans defensive structure and depth.
They must beat St Kilda on Thursday to have any hope of finals, before a tough challenge against Brisbane next weekend.
If the Swans need any more motivation, it’s game 350 for Lance Franklin.
Jack Lukosius of the Suns celebrates a goal with teammate Nick Holman. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images
GOLD COAST SUNS – 11th (6-6)
- Premiership: $81
- Top eight finish: $4
- To miss top eight: $1.35
(odds via Ladbrokes)
Welcome to the finals conversation Gold Coast! Two big wins against Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs in the last two weeks has set them up as top eight contenders.
Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell have been brilliant in the last month and have led the charge in the absence of Touk Miller.
Jack Lukosius might want to stay in Darwin forever having booted 10 goals in the last two weeks and Max King is in good form too.
The Suns have the bye this weekend, but must win their next two games against Carlton and Hawthorn to have any hope of making the eight.
ST KILDA SAINTS – 5th (7-4)
- Premiership: $51
- Top eight finish: $1.50
- To miss top eight: $2
(odds via Ladbrokes)
The Saints had the bye last weekend but have lost two of it’s past three and played that awful game against the Kangaroos prior to that.
Thursday all of a sudden feels like a must win against the Swans, or the Saints slide will continue.
RICHMOND – 13th (4-7-1)
CARLTON – 14th (4-7-1)
GWS – 15th (4-8)
(odds via Ladbrokes)
For the next three teams, Carlton, Richmond and GWS, the Blues kicked six goals for the second week in a row and are awful (watch them beat Essendon now), while Richmond and GWS are good enough to knock off any team on their day but feel too far off at this stage.
HAWTHORN – 16th (3-9)
Least wins: $26
NORTH MELBOURNE – 17th (2-10)
Least wins: $4.50
WEST COAST – 18th (1-11)
Least wins: $1.12
The attention at the bottom of the ladder is fewest wins.
After seeing the trio of Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast play over the weekend, it’s a struggle to see how West Coast can win more games than North (heartbreaking again) and Hawthorn.
LEAST WINS 2023
WEST COAST EAGLES – $1.12
[all odds as of June 6]
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