Nine rounds of the AFL have come and gone and the upper echelon, main contending group of teams to win the 2023 premiership looks to be taking shape.
The 2023 AFL season has also proven extremely even: from fifth to fifteenth (sorry GWS, in 16th you won’t make it) on the ladder, a case can be made for each team’s finals chances.
COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES: 1st (8-1)
The Pies won again over the weekend and for Collingwood it’s now all about ensuring a top four finish and ideally a top two spot from here to guarantee at least two finals at the MCG in September.
What’s scary is the Magpies are yet to play Hawthorn, West Coast or North Melbourne. $2.75 for the Minor premiership almost looks like a lock.
Steven May of the Demons is chaired off in game 200. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images
MELBOURNE DEMONS: 2nd (7-2)
Similar to Collingwood, Melbourne banked another win and got a good percentage boost with the victory over Hawthorn and maintained its status as the best attacking team in the AFL having kicked 146 goals and 86 behinds this year.
A huge test awaits this Friday night against Port at Adelaide Oval. Given the Demons got smashed the last time they played in Adelaide (by Essendon) happy to let the $4.50 pass by as teams around Melbourne have a softer draw in the next month.
BRISBANE LIONS: 3rd (7-2)
A win is a win and Joe Danhier stood up and got himself a bagful of goals with six against his old club Essendon and – aside from Lachie Neale’s new tattoos – it was a perfect night for the Lions.
This is what fans will want to see out of Joe on a more regular basis. If he can do that, the $1.55 for the top four is a lock as the Lions have six home games remaining, plus games against Hawthorn and West Coast.
GEELONG CATS: 7th (5-4)
An unforeseen blip on the radar on Friday night as Geelong were smashed all over the MCG by Richmond. They are still the second best attacking team in the AFL with 940 points in 2023.
The Cats were also 5-4 last year before ripping off 16 straight games, so there’s no real cause for concern. They might not be longer than $6 for the rest of the season, but there’s a hint of inconsistency to them which makes it a tough betting proposition.
Travis Boak of the Power congratulates Ollie Lord of the Power on a goal. Picture: Steve Bell/Getty Images
PORT ADELAIDE POWER: 4th (7-2)
The Power beat North Melbourne last round, but the concussion for Todd Marshall is not at all ideal as the Power have to face the Demons on Friday night.
Port are ranked fifth in attack after nine games, but have played West Coast and North Melbourne which is a stat padder.
Happy to risk the $2.50 for Top four for now, as against the two ‘good’ teams that Port have played this year (Collingwood and Adelaide) they’ve been blown off the park.
$2.87 to miss the eight piques some interest if you think Melbourne can knock them off on Friday night.
WESTERN BULLDOGS: 6th (6-3)
Are the Bulldogs any good despite being 6-3? The 20 point win on Saturday night doesn’t exactly shed much light on that, as for a few minutes it looked as if the Bulldogs were going to blow it against the Blues.
They are the 15th-ranked attacking team in the AFL, which doesn’t scream premiership threat.
We’ll get a good guide on if the Bulldogs are a decent team or not this weekend as they take on Adelaide on Saturday afternoon in Ballarat.
Taylor Walker of the Crows celebrates a goal. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images
ADELAIDE CROWS: 8th (5-4)
Adelaide proved to the competition that they mean business in 2023 with a thumping win over St Kilda led by a five goal haul from Tex Walker.
The Crows now sit fourth in the AFL for attack and ninth in defence.
An important two weeks for the Crows comes up with a game against the Western Bulldogs in Ballarat before hosting Brisbane the following Sunday. If you believe the Crows can win both (plus three games and expected wins against North and West Coast) $7 for the top four is decent value.
RICHMOND TIGERS: 13th (3-5-1)
What to make of Friday night?
In one week the Tigers have jumped from $251 premiership chances to $26 off the back of beating a Geelong team that had its midfield decimated by injuries.
Off that alone, it’s tough to back the Tigers to win the flag: are they a 10x better team this week than they were last week?
The answer is no; they are still ranked 14th in attack for 2023 and not a betting proposition at $26.
The Blues look dejected after a loss. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
CARLTON BLUES: 9th (4-4-1)
Carlton have two Coleman Medallists in the team, yet could only manage one goal in the first half on Saturday night. The Blues then had the audacity to almost win the game.
They are the ninth0best attack in the AFL, which is their ladder spot too. The difference between the best and worst is night and day.
If they beat Collingwood on Sunday the world may implode.
How can you have a bet on the Jekyll and Hyde of the AFL? Just don’t do it to yourself.
ST KILDA SAINTS: 5th (6-3)
Despite still being the best defensive team in the AFL, the Saints got shown up on Sunday by Adelaide and were blown off the park.
Tim Membrey will face a stint on the sidelines with concussion and Jack Steele hurt his knee over the weekend. Max King comes back this week, which is a massive boost for the 13th ranked attacking team in the AFL, as they travel to Sydney to play GWS.
$2.62 for the Saints to miss the top eight is well worth a look, as their draw is quite tricky for a team at their level.
Isaac Heeney of the Swans and team mates look dejected. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images
SYDNEY SWANS: 14th (3-6)
Injuries aside, Saturday was flat out disappointing for the Swans as they were beaten in an element they pride themselves on, clearances (36-49) and contested ball (143-57).
Despite that, the Swans had a chance to win the game before letting it slip for the third consecutive game at the SCG. Despite that, the Swans are ranked eighth for attack in the AFL, but 14th in defence.
They should beat North Melbourne on Saturday at Docklands, but the injury list is a big concern, with Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow waiting for them in Round 11 which looms as a season-definer.
ESSENDON BOMBERS: 10th (4-5)
The 13th ranked defence in the AFL tried its guts out on Saturday night, but were overwhelmed by a Brisbane Lions forward line that is just so potent.
A lack of a key forward is killing Essendon’s season at the moment and that looks to be the one link missing for them as they ranked seventh in attack for 2023.
Dreamtime at the G on Saturday night is a huge occasion and one that the Bombers must win if they are to be a top eight chance.
[all odds as of MAY 15]
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