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Programming note: Ottawa Playbook will not publish May 22. We’ll be back in your inbox Tuesday morning.
Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. We’re your hosts Zi-Ann Lum, Kyle Duggan and Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we’re keeping up with JUSTIN TRUDEAU at the G-7. We have notes on the DANIELLE SMITH/RACHEL NOTLEY showdown. And we talk to JANE PHILPOTT about PIERRE POILIEVRE and safe supply.
First, though: News overnight that WestJet and its pilots union have reached an 11th-hour deal.
JAPANESE BREAKFAST — Remember Build Back Better World? Of course not. That marquee, China-challenging G-7 initiative landed 23 months ago. A whole Canadian election ago. There’s been, like, three seasons of Love is Blind since then.
Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Japan to binge briefings and leverage Canada’s vast natural resources as a salve for his peers’ economic security worries. But differences aside, the Group of Seven faces the existential challenge of showing that democracies work. Subsidy wars be damned.
— All in a day: While you were sleeping, G-7 leaders kicked off the summit by visiting the Hiroshima Peace Park before sessions on the Ukraine war, Indo-Pacific tensions and nuclear non-proliferation.
The leaders issued a statement this hour that condemns Russia and announces new sanctions. “Our support for Ukraine will not waver.”
— Guest of honor: President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY of Ukraine is expected to travel to Hiroshima in person, POLITICO’s Eli Stokols and Stuart Lau report.
— Other business: The U.S. and Japan will be working to persuade Europe to adopt more hawkish policy on China.
“It’s important to show that there is alignment and strength in democracies,” says TREVOR KENNEDY, the Business Council of Canada’s vice president of trade and international policy. The G-7 is a league of leading economies and Kennedy says there’s pressure to show they can work with emerged and emerging democracies.
— News today: POLITICO reports that Italy’s right-wing leader GIORGIA MELONI is ready to tell her G-7 counterparts that Italy will leave China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
— Non-G-7 countries at the table: Australia, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Comoros, Cook Islands and Vietnam.
“You’ll also see a desire to push back against economic coercion to enhance economic security among G-7 partners, but also other partners that share certain values,” Kennedy said.
— TBA: Economic coercion by any other name implies China, specifically the Chinese Communist Party and its policies. By weekend’s end, it will be clear if a c-word — coercion or China — makes it onto the final communiqué.
Trudeau will return to Canada with barely enough time to recover from jet lag before special rapporteur DAVID JOHNSTON announces if a formal public inquiry is needed to probe foreign interference from Beijing.
Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way?
SMITH VS. NOTLEY — There may be no purer Rorschach test in politics than a highly anticipated election debate. If you liked the cut of DANIELLE SMITH‘s jib, you probably thought she won Thursday night’s Alberta leaders debate with RACHEL NOTLEY.
Flip the party preference, flip the results. That’s the way of the partisan brain.
— Was there a consensus on the outcome? Not exactly. MIKE SOLBERG called it a “SPICYYYYYY” one. KEN BOESSENKOOL ruled it a draw. MAX FAWCETT called it for Smith.
LUCAS MEYER might’ve won the take contest: “I suspect the UCP is happy tonight and that [the] NDP feel it was good, but could’ve been great. A lot of ammo went unfired.”
Clear as mud, right?
— It wasn’t useless: Nearly half of voters told Ipsos their choice could depend on the debate, so all the arguing and contrasting and pivoting chased that potential support.
Here are four takeaways from the fracas:
1. Pipelines still matter. Alberta is a rare province in which a New Democrat can boast about building a pipeline to tidewater without alienating the base. Smith and Notley violently agreed that emissions can fall even if oil and gas investment and production endures.
Welcome to the province where the Oilers are celebrated, not renamed.
Smith complained that Notley wouldn’t disavow a federal plan to achieve a net-zero energy grid by 2035. Even Notley’s NDP cousins in Saskatchewan, Smith said, supported Premier SCOTT MOE‘s commitment to net zero by 2050. (In a bit of theater of the absurd, former Saskatchewan premier BRAD WALL also gave credit to his past rivals.)
2. Imperfection is a selling point. Notley’s term as premier coincided with an oil price crash and a tough economy. Many voters still blame her for the bad times. Smith carries a talk radio career’s worth of baggage that has haunted her for years.
The leaders’ closing statements both offered contrition for real and/or perceived faults.
Smith: “My commitment to you, if reelected, is to serve you with everything I have, and to the best of my ability — however imperfect that may be at times.”
Notley: “You may not always agree with me, and I may not have always gotten it right, but I say what I mean, and I mean what I say.”
3. That broken ethics law. The timing of Alberta ethics commissioner MARGUERITE TRUSSLER‘s report couldn’t have been more nightmarish for the UCP leader. Hours before the debate, Trussler found that Smith broke the conflict-of-interest rules by contacting Attorney General TYLER SHANDRO about charges against anti-Covid measures protester ARTUR PAWLOWSKI.
“It is a threat to democracy to interfere with the administration of justice,” Trussler wrote.
Notley weaponized that finding on the debate stage.
Smith skirted around Trussler’s conclusion, focusing instead on an ace in the hole elsewhere in the commissioner’s report. Trussler found no evidence Smith had contacted crown prosecutors directly about Pawlowski’s legal troubles — a key claim in CBC reporting repeated by the NDP.
Smith called on Notley to apologize for the insinuation. Notley did not.
4. No knockout punches. A large constituency of debate watchers tunes in for the big line. The killer blow that turns the election on its head. Alberta’s 2015 debate had the “math is difficult” snafu that fueled Notley’s rise to power.
— Would there be one in 2023? “There was no defining moment,” DON BRAID writes in the Calgary Herald: “That was good for Smith, because unexpected and vivid surprises can decide elections.”
Notley tried a couple. “Your understanding of the word guarantee is very different from that of most Albertans,” she said, pointing out that time Smith promised never to cross the floor in 2014 before she crossed the floor from the Wildrose Party to the PCs.
Also: “Ms. Smith wants to fight with Ottawa. You want to fight with the media. You want to fight, frankly, with your former self.”
Zingers, to be sure. But knockout blows? No way.
— RICK BELL’s take in the Sun: After the debate, Danielle Smith is still standing and winning
GRADING ON A CURVE — Playbook asked Edmonton-based lawyer and commentator KARAMVEER LALH, a former Tory war roomer, to measure Smith’s performance.
“I think Smith benefitted somewhat from the heavy opposition dump against her coming into the debate in the sense that it lowered expectations for her. A good chunk of Albertans have only ever heard Smith in clips, and this was the first opportunity for many to hear her speak for an extended period of time. She’s clearly very charismatic and I think Albertans who were on the fence about her likely leave the debate feeling more reassured.”
— Was it enough to secure a win? “I don’t think anyone, except maybe JANET BROWN, has done well predicting Alberta elections,” says Lalh. “But I’ll say that so long as nothing else weird happens between now and the start of advance voting on Tuesday, I’d expect Smith to be sniffing around 50 seats when we wake up on the 30th.”
Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is at the G-7 in Hiroshima.
Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Trade Minister MARY NG are in Washington; they’ll hold a media availability at the Canadian embassy at 3 p.m.
NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Port Coquitlam, British Columbia.
SECOND OPINION — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE introduced a motion in the Commons Thursday to end the Liberals’ safe-supply programs and move the funding into treatment services.
It comes on the heels of a National Post report that said the government’s policy is leading to diversion into the black market. The issue came to a rapid boil in Question Period this week.
Playbook was curious to get the thoughts of former Liberal health minister JANE PHILPOTT, who is now dean of the faculty of health sciences and director of the school of medicine at Queen’s University.
On how she reacted to Poilievre’s line in Question Period:
It’s really upsetting to see the way he is framing this and politicizing what is a very serious health issue that causes an enormous number of harms, including death, on a daily basis in the country. It’s not impressive.
On whether her views on safe consumption and harm reduction have changed since leaving politics:
I am absolutely still a completely firm believer in supervised consumption sites. They have saved thousands of lives. I’m really proud of the work we did when I was in government to facilitate the ability of communities to be able to open supervised consumption sites. It’s definitely had a positive impact.
That said, there’s still a lot of work to do and we’re still seeing very, very high numbers of deaths. So, the answers on how to address that are not entirely clear, but we have to look at some of the programs like safer supply, like decriminalization, that have worked in other countries to determine what role those play — and they very much do play a role. There’s much more work to do.
On the extent to which safe supply subsidizes the illicit drug market or allows for diversion:
There’s not an enormous amount of Canadian data on the Canadian approach to safer supply yet. Some of the data that came out earlier this week from the CMAJ is encouraging. It shows, in a relatively small sample of patients, it actually reduced their consumption of drugs.
We have more work to do to understand what’s the best way to do that, so it doesn’t have adverse effects like diversion. But diversion happens anyway.
So, if this actually allows people to be able to reduce their use of drugs, improve their health benefits, have stability in their life — which leads to social stability and reduced harms — then we need to continue to make these programs available and evaluate them along the way to figure out what are the best mechanisms. Because Canada’s approach is a little different than what other countries have used.
There’s no question safer supply programs in general, heavily, have saved lives and actually helped a lot of people be able to find stability and, in many cases, have reduced their consumption of drugs.
On the claim people are dying because of these policies:
People are not dying because of the policies. People are dying because of toxicity and poisoning in the drugs they take.
On whether she ever thinks about returning to politics:
[Laughs.] Let’s say it crosses my mind, occasionally. But at the moment, I’ve got a job that I very much enjoy, and I’ve got lots of work to do here.
Who’s up: CORPORATE WELFARE, as the province of Ontario spars with the feds over who should pay what to salvage the Stellantis deal.
Who’s down: PEEL REGION, which per Ontario Premier DOUG FORD will cease to exist come Jan. 1, 2025.
— The Liberal’s gun-control bill is headed to Senate following passage by House of Commons. CP’s JIM BRONSKILL has the story.
— Conservative MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER is guest of honor on this week’s edition of The Herle Burly.
— The Globe’s BILL CURRY reports out of a heated House committee starring DOMINIC BARTON. (Technical issues cut BILL MORNEAU’s testimony short.) Quote of the day via Conservative MP GARNETT GENUIS, who told Barton: “With all due respect, you’re really expecting this committee to swallow quite a fudge.”
— What exactly is a central bank digital currency? Economist TREVOR TOMBE provides answers on the Hub.
— In case you missed him at the Ottawa International Writers Festival, author JOHN VAILLANT was on the Front Burner pod to talk about the science of superfires and his new book, ‘Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast.’
— The Tyee features an investigative report by CHARLES RUSNELL: The bully who haunts Alberta’s election. Spoiler: He says it’s JASON KENNEY.
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Independent watchdog fuels political flames.
In other news for Pro subscribers:
— U.S., Taiwan finish first phase of trade initiative.
— Lawmakers shocked by Pentagon’s $3B Ukraine aid error.
— How Ukraine could become the next South Korea.
— Twitter, Google win big at U.S. Supreme Court.
— China’s commerce minister to meet with Raimondo, Tai.
Birthdays: HBD today to NATIONAL PR senior counsel and longtime politico BOB RICHARDSON, Conservative MP JAMES BEZAN, television personality and former MNA MARIO DUMONT, former MPs MARIA MOURANI and TARIK BRAHMI.
HBD + 1 to JULIA DE LAURENTIIS JOHNSTON.
Saturday birthdays: Conservative MP ANDREW SCHEER. Canada’s former ambassador to the U.S. RAYMOND CHRÉTIEN, JOE OLIVER, OTTO JELINEK and ANDRÉ GABIAS.
Sunday birthdays: Sen. FABIAN MANNING and former premier KATHLEEN WYNNE is 70! Also celebrating: GUY BADEAUX, JACK GRANATSTEIN and ÉRIC CAIRE.
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Spotted: Dozens of parliamentarians, joining a Sparks Street lunchline for free food courtesy of the lobby groups for chicken, egg and turkey farmers, as well as hatching egg producers.
Ottawa’s SUPPLY & DEMAND on Maclean’s list of 20 best places to eat in Canada.
Meanwhile in Washington: U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE at the Canadian embassy where the bar is stocked with Molson Canadian.
Media mentions: MARIE-DANIELLE SMITH is now the permanent news editor in CP’s Parliament Hill bureau. … ERIC MARK is leaving Global News after 6.5 years: “Adventure awaits!”
RYAN MANUCHA won the C$60,000 Donner Prize for Best Book of Canadian Public Policy. Manucha wrote “Booze, Cigarettes, and Constitutional Dust-Ups.”
Movers and shakers: PricewaterhouseCoopers partner JULIEN LASSONDE is lobbying for Korean lithium-ion battery producer SK IE Technology. Lassonde leads his firm’s government incentives practice in Canada, where he connects clients with “tax credits, grants and other government funding programs.”
SK wants to apply for the federal Strategic Innovation Fund. The company has been in talks with Ford to build a cathode factory in Bécancour, Quebec. A different arm of the Korean giant, SK Ecoplant, announced during PM Trudeau’s visit to Seoul that it was buying a stake in a C$4.5-billion investment in a Canadian green hydrogen project.
— KPMG’s BEGONA BERNARDEZ PADILLA is lobbying for Lithion Technologies, which recycles lithium-ion batteries. The company wants “government incentives” for a manufacturing operation in Quebec.
— Longview partner JEREMY SAWATZKY is helping FPX Nickel tap the Strategic Innovation Fund. Sawatzky logged a Thursday meeting with senior staff in Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE‘s office: chief of staff IAN FOUCHER, director of operations PIERRE-YVES BOURQUE, policy adviser KEVIN DEAGLE, and regional adviser for west and north KATYA NOVA.
— Rubicon consultant BRAEDAN DE BAKKER, whose firm describes itself as “ruthless at finding a pathway to success,” is repping Flair Airlines. The carrier’s most recent press release took a dig at Westjet’s labor unrest.
The House does not sit Friday; it will return May 29. The Senate has adjourned until May 30.
Thursday’s answer: “It was [May] the 17th … or the 18th. Whatever.” On one of these dates in 1642, MONTREAL was founded.
Props to GERMAINE MALABRE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DEAN VALENTINO, DOUG RICE, DOUG SWEET, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER and BOB GORDON.
Today’s question via Playbook reader J.D.M. STEWART: Who said: “A leader is expected by the image-maker to be a combination of Abraham Lincoln and Batman, to perform instant miracles. Then, when the poor, honest, decent chap can’t live up to this image, the process of demolition begins so that another superman can be erected on the ruins.”
