Geelong is in the exact same position as it was this time last year. So are the Cats actually better placed than before that dominant 16-win streak?
Fresh off a loss to a middling St Kilda, the Cats sat seventh on the ladder with a 5-4 record and a percentage of 121.4.
The Cats looked a better side than that but didn’t look like a team that could rip off 16 wins on the trot and cruise to a dominant premiership triumph.
St Kilda inflicted Geelong’s last loss of 2022 in round 9. Picture: Michael Klein
Fresh off a loss to a middling Richmond last week, Geelong is virtually in the exact same spot – with a 5-4 record, a percentage of 127.5 and sitting seventh.
Defender Zach Tuohy described this year as “eerily” similar to last and coach Chris Scott also said last week he can draw several similarities to where things sat 12 months ago.
But the numbers tell a slightly different story.
Where Geelong showed the hallmarks of a premiership defence in the first nine weeks of last season but blunting opposition ball movement, they have dropped away this year.
This time last year, the Cats’ defence allowed the third-least scores off turnovers and were the second best team at stopping the opposition moving the ball from one end to the other.
This year, Geelong ranks 13th and 10th.
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So much of the game is played on the turnovers and Geelong’s slip will only cause problems as the season wears on.
A look at the most obvious number – the game scores – bears out Geelong’s defensive concerns.
The Cats have conceded at least 89 points five times this year and over 100 three times.
Between round 18, 2018 and the start of 2023, a string of 103 games, Geelong had only conceded 100 points four times.
The Cats certainly have excuses for working their way through their defensive lapses.
Key back Jack Henry hasn’t played a game yet and Sam De Koning has been in and out, while Esava Ratugolea has been thrust into the No.1 key defensive job while he still figures out how to be a backman.
Any quick look at Geelong’s injury list will show the Cats have a mountain of improvement to come, but they were in a similar position this time last year before clearing the casualty ward as the winning streak continued.
At the other end of the field, Geelong’s attack has generally been humming.
Only Melbourne has scored more so far this season and a stretch of four games on the trot where the Cats scored at least 127 points sent shockwaves through opposition coaching boxes.
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Through the first nine rounds last year, Geelong sat eighth in the competition for scores out of clearances and this year the Cats have leapt up to first, adding to an already deadly turnover attack.
If nobody saw last year’s dominant win streak coming, at least this year the Cats know they are capable of such feats.
Should they get a fully fledged backline up and running, there is no reason the Cats can’t do it again.