When to jump on fallen premiumns

Back on burning questions – thanks Tim Michell – and maybe even back in KFC SuperCoach.

Well, not quite yet, but I’m slowing making up ground.

Nothing went my way in the opening month and I was ranked 54,206 after four rounds.

Now, after three solid weeks, I’m on the cusp of the top 10,000 at 11,089. It’s definitely still not where I want to be, but it’s a start.

So, what’s next?

That is the big burning question on the minds of many KFC SuperCoaches at the moment.

Spot fires keep popping up everywhere, bringing some upgrade plans to a halt – or from even been derived at all.

I’ve had to put out a few myself – and just as I thought they stopped, Luke Davies-Uniacke gets injured a week after Darcy Parish.

“I was just thinking this morning, normally at this time of year, I have a whole plan to finish my team,” a renowned KFC SuperCoach figure said to me on Tuesday.

“Not sure what it is about this year but I’ve got no clue.”

Fair assumption, but, no, it is not Dan Batten.

Feeling the same? You’re in the right place.

This is my plan for the next seven weeks – it’s far from perfect but KFC SuperCoach is rarely perfect.

You probably don’t want to copy it, but it might get you thinking about yours.

DPP CHANGES: ALL THE LATEST POSITION STATS, CONTENDERS

ROUND 10

Heading into this weekend, as you can see below, I have 17 premiums – if you include a resurgent Hayden Young and Harry Sheezel – plus Jason Horne-Francis, and 16 trades left.

Sadly, no boosts, after using my final one last week to upgrade to Clayton Oliver and trade out an injured Darcy Parish.

Going through this plan has reinforced my first thought in holding Luke Davies-Uniacke.

At $497k, and with dwindling trades, it’s really out of need.

But, remember, it’s best-18 from Round 12 to 15, so it hurts me for two weeks at the most, even if North say he’ll miss three games.

I’ve always loved the bye rounds.

So to sum it up, I plan not to trade this week.

ROUND 11

Sorry to bore you again, but it might be a similar story ahead of Round 11.

All my rookies will play and I will have no injuries.

Haha.

ROUND 12

Now we’re getting to the action.

Before trades, at this point anyway, I will have 21 playing, plus Campbell Chesser and Charlie Constable who could force their way back in – the young Eagle, in particular.

Given the four clubs on the bye in Round 12 – Brisbane, Fremantle, St Kilda and Sydney – most KFC SuperCoaches shouldn’t have too much trouble fielding a strong side.

When looking at your available players over the bye rounds, it’s important to focus on your premium players. Someone might say they have 19 playing when you have 17. But an extra premium scorer might outweigh Alex Cincotta’s 33. Sorry, Alex.

So, it’s all about preparing yourself for the next three weeks of trading.

I’d love to make multiple downgrades ahead of Round 12, but reality is, for the money I need to make, it might be too early to trade Cincotta, Seamus Mitchell and returning Docker Matt Johnson, who still hopefully has cash generation in him after his suspension for a dangerous tackle.

But with a bye in Round 13, Cat Sam Simpson, who hopefully gets to around $280k – and that’s without factoring in a big score in his next two games – will be the one I trade ahead of the first bye round.

Pray for rookies.

If you don’t desperately need them for the final two bye rounds, upgrading or downgrading Lions Connor McKenna and Darcy Wilmot will help open things up here.

The premium you bring in will miss a match, so make sure it works for your side first.

TRADES: Sam Simpson (approx $280k) to a rookie (approx $123k)

CASH IN BANK: $177k

TRADES LEFT: 15

ROUND 13

It’s only Gold Coast and Geelong with a week off in Round 13 so, even though I have Tom Stewart and Noah Anderson, it should finally be a fun week of KFC SuperCoach, with our four lowest scores still dropping out.

Again, how good are the byes!?

Initially, when working through this plan, I was just going to make another single downgrade. But, to make the trades I want next week, I need more money.

If he does play in Round 10 – please Justin – there will only be two more price rises for Johnson to this point. But even if he hits 50 in both games, the second-year midfielder will push his price to $210k.

And he had 22 disposals against the Lions in his last outing, with some early clangers – including the free kick against which resulted in the ban – affecting his final score.

I’ll be taking $80k if it’s on offer – and the downgrade option is there.

I will also need whatever I can get out of Blake Drury at this stage, too. The good news is, he will – hopefully – play three more times and – again hopefully – score more than 17.

TRADES: Matt Johnson (approx $210k) to a rookie (approx $123k), Blake Drury (approx $160k to a rookie approx $102k)

CASH IN BANK: $322k

TRADES LEFT: 13

ROUND 14

OK, maybe they aren’t that good.

But this is the week – with Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn, Melbourne and West Coast on the bye – I will start to spend the money.

Max Gawn and Sam Walsh might be forward by this time, but Gawn has the bye and, unless he drops significantly, I won’t be able to get to Walsh.

So, all going well – haha – it could be Lachie Neale and Jack Steele, if his knee is OK, into the midfield. This will send Errol Gulden and Jason Horne-Francis forward.

It will give me 15 premiums and Horne-Francis, plus a few rookies, for the round.

TRADES: Alex Cincotta (approx $280k) to rookie, Seamus Mitchell (approx. $300k) to Jack Steele (approx $520k), Kade Chandler (approx $345k) to Lachie Neale (approx $550k).

CASH IN BANK: $74k

TRADES LEFT: 10

ROUND 15

With Carlton, GWS, North Melbourne, Port, Richmond and the Bulldogs out of action, the bye-round fun has well-and-truly stopped now. But the good news is there’s only one round left.

My plan this far out, is to make a downgrade – hopefully one of my recent rookies has made some quick cash.

Then, trade Horne-Francis, who has the bye, to Gawn, if he’s a forward.

For numbers, I will also consider moving on Harry Sheezel for a shiny new forward in Walsh (pending funds) or a cheap Callum Mills to finish the midfield, if he’s returned and played one game, sending his value plummeting, by this point.

Whether to hold Roos young gun Sheezel, who has scored seven KFC SuperCoach tons in the opening nine rounds, will be a big decision for many coaches ahead of Round 15.

Regardless of which way I go, that will leave one rookie on field with seven trades.

TRADES: Rookie downgrade, Jason Horne-Francis (approx $430k) to Max Gawn (approx $550k), Harry Sheezel (approx $450k) to Callum Mills (approx. $420k)

CASH IN BANK: Hopefully some.

TRADES LEFT: 7

ROUND 16/17

Then, to finish the side, I will look to use two – but probably three, depending how much cash I can generate in the meantime – trades to make that final upgrade.

If it’s Mills the previous week, Jack Macrae after the bye at $520k-ish as a forward will be ideal. Returning Collingwood big man Darcy Cameron, depending on how the Magpies set up in the ruck with Mason Cox in form, will also be in the discussion, given his likely price.

Then sit and panic with four or five trades in hand for the final seven rounds.

Of course, this trade plan is subject to the inevitable carnage that KFC SuperCoach will throw at us during the bye rounds.

But, hey, it all sounds nice.