New PropTrack modelling has identified what every Geelong suburb’s median home price could be in five years, including which may grow up to 60 per cent.
The exclusive PropTrack forecast shows areas such as St Albans Park, Lara, Leopold, Mt Duneed and Armstrong Creek could have million-dollar median house prices by 2028.
The predictions, which were calculated by appling the rate of growth from the past five years to the next five, shows the trend of worsening housing affordability continuing across the region.
With the 2023 budget handed down by the Federal Government, will there be some relief for struggling buyers and renters?
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Prices are tipped to double at Point Lonsdale and Anglesea – where the median price could reach $4.1m by 2028, with coastal and lifestyle areas among the best performers.
Across Geelong’s suburbs, prices are tipped to rise between 30 and 60 per cent, with blue ribbon suburbs such as East Geelong, Highton and Manifold Heights among the more subdued areas.
PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said the region’s appeal had grown broadly and would continue to drive demand for property.
Mr Ryan said it was less clear whether the lifestyle and amenity factors that were so strong during the pandemic would stir prices as much in the coming five years.
Inner city development is set to place more strain on the demand for housing leading up to the Commonwealth Games, Geelong agent Nathan Ashton said. Picture: Alan Barber
“What’s more sustainable is that really solid growth we’ve seen across Geelong,” he said.
“One of the big things we’ve seen the post-Covid world is that there’s more people able to work remotely and even more people are able to work further away from cities such that they’re only commuting one or two days a week.
“It means that there’s a bigger diversity of people that can move further away from Melbourne.”
Mr Ryan said more people were becoming aware of the benefits of living in regional cities such as Geelong and Ballarat and Bendigo, which was creating a snowball effect.
6 Normanby St, East Geelong.
“Once people know people that have moved those regions and they hear that they’re very nice and they try it themselves, that draws more and more people in.
“It’s easier to build for amenities things like bars and coffee shops and things like that. And so this is kind of take a life of their own.”
Gartland, Geelong agent Nathan Ashton said inner city development in preparation for the Commonwealth Games and overseas migration were expected to be key drivers impacting on housing values.
A slowdown in home building could also see growth area values jump, he said.
39 Britannia St, Geelong West, is listed for auction with price hopes of $1.4m.
“The volume of inner city development is going to bring a transient workforce to Geelong.
“They are going to need places to live and that should fuel a revitalisation in and around the CBD,” he said.
“So I think the lack of supply of rental accommodation and property to lease from now up to the Commonwealth Games in 2026 is going to be one of the major factors.”
Foreign students and migrating workers would also add to competition for properties, he said
But a more gradual rise would most likely be the reality, he said.
“We are not going to see any spikes but we will see some gradual increase over time.”
27 Fawkner Crescent, Armstrong Creek, is listed with $1.1m to $1.19m price hopes.
Buxton director Ben Riddle said there were serious question marks over the predictions, considering the flat property market impacted by rising interest rates and government policies designed to slow the economy.
“The past five years in Geelong have probably been the best five years that we’ve probably ever seen when it comes to growth,” he said.
Record low interest rates delivered that growth, fuelled by the global pandemic in which government stimulus poured fuel on to the fire, he said.
Mr Riddle said prices were expected to remain in a lull as higher interest rates held sway, meaning for the predictions to come to fruition, there would need to be double-digit growth for two or three years.
Mr Ryan said Geelong prices had retreated 5.6 per cent in a year to May as interest rates rose.
“It’s a slow down in borrowing costs, I don’t think it’s a slowdown due to lack of demand.”