Damien Hardwick is stepping away as coach of Richmond: what effect has that had on the Tigers betting prospects for 2023?
AFL: Damien Hardwick reveals where Dustin Martin told him to go and holiday now that he has stood down as Richmond senior coach.
That announcement bought to an end a 14 season, 307 game relationship which yielded three AFL premierships for Richmond in 2017, 2019 and 2020.
It leaves Richmond in a predicament.
After 10 games of the 2023 AFL season, the Tiges have a 3-6-1 record which has them in 14th position, but only two wins out of the top eight.
Saturday night against Essendon proved what we said last week about the Tigers in our CODE Bet weekly AFL wrap: they were not a 10x better team that the betting market suggested after the win over Geelong, as their odds were slashed from $251 to $26.
Those premiership odds are now out to between $34 and $51 for Richmond to win the 2023 AFL flag.
It’s not difficult to see why. The naturally attacking Tigers are ranked 15th for points scored in 2023 at a measly 77.9 points a game while missing Tom Lynch for the majority of the season.
It’s a far-cry from even last year when the Tigers ranked 2nd in points per outing at 98.7.
The Tigers are the worst team in the AFL as far as kicking efficiency is concerned, with 63.3% of kicks hitting their intended target and across this season they’ve looked a pale imitation of their imperious best.
Last round’s nail-biting 1-point loss to Essendon was a good distillation of why the Tigers are a good chance to not play finals – a lack of attacking options and composure when needed have plagued them all year – and after the Hardwick announcement they now sit at very short odds of between $1.21 and $1.30 to miss the Top 8.
If, on the other hand, there’s belief out there that this could be a boost for the Tigers (as we’ve seen plenty of times when teams make a coaching change), the markets range between $3.50 and $4.20 for Richmond to still make the finals.
It just makes this weekend’s game against Port Adelaide at the MCG that much more intriguing.
Richmond will go into that as a 2.5 point underdog (check out the CODE Bet odds comparison Match Centre here), while the next month will be crucial.
In the next four games the Tigers play Port, GWS, Fremantle and St Kilda: that’s a Top 4 team, a Top 8 team and a Fremantle squad that just had back-to-back wins over Sydney and Geelong.
Their final 13 games does include tilts against the lowly trio of West Coast, Hawthorn and North, but also has games against Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and another against St Kilda before closing with a return bout against Port.
So this week really does loom as an absolutely crucial test for Richmond’s finals hopes.
RICHMOND – 2023 Updated Premiership odds
TOP 4 Odds
To Make The Top 8
To Miss The Top 8
[all odds as of May 23]
-CHECK OUT CODE BET’S AFL ODDS AND BETTING ANALYSIS HUB HERE-