With the first batch of players arriving in camp this week, Wales’ Rugby World Cup preparations will soon be in full swing.
Warren Gatland currently has an extended squad of 52 players with it set to get cut before they embark upon their first overseas training camp in Switzerland in early July.
The squad will get slashed further before they go to Turkey and play three warm-up tests against South Africa and England (twice, before the New Zealander arrives at the 33 players he takes to the World Cup in France.
Here are the tough decisions facing Gatland over the coming weeks and months.
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Back-three
The back-three is arguably an area of strength for Wales who aren’t short of firepower.
If Wales’ pack can win front foot ball, and at the very least gain parity in the contact area, then the likes of Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams can hurt teams.
But as he is confined to 33 players he may need to sacrifice a player in the back-three to make sure all his bases are covered elsewhere.
Louis-Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams, and Liam Williams are pretty much nailed but there are places up for grabs.
It is very likely to be a straight shootout between the experienced Alex Cuthbert and Dragons speedster Rio Dyer for one spot, while the ever reliable Leigh Halfpenny is also in the mix.
Halfpenny’s goal kicking may win him a spot but Gatland could also opt to use Gareth Anscombe as a makeshift full-back should injuries occur, while George North, and Mason Grady can also cover wing.
It’s likely to be a World Cup too soon for Cai Evans, and Tom Rogers.
Centres
Midfield will surely be an area of concern for the Wales management.
If one was to rewind the clock back to the 2011, 2015 and 2019 World Cups they’d soon realise one of the main reasons behind Welsh success was the experience, and cohesion, of their centres.
In 2011 and 2015 Wales had experienced pair Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies, who had played a significant amount of test rugby, while they also had a telepathic understanding of each other.
It was the same in 2019 when Davies was partnered with his then Scarlets teammate Hadleigh Parkes.
But Gatland’s predecessor Wayne Pivac never really nailed down a first choice centre pairing, and Gatland has been sent a hospital pass in this respect.
With Joe Hawkins ineligible owing to the 25 cap law, Gatland has some serious thinking to do.
One player who hasn’t yet featured under Gatland due to injury is Johnny Williams. The Scarlets star fits the mould of the type of centre Gatland has historically selected. He is a unit with tremendous footwork who constantly gets over the gainline, while he is also an underrated distributor with a turn of pace.
George North hasn’t been at his best of late but he has too much class and experience to be left out, while Mason Grady, Joe Roberts, Keiran Williams, and Max Llewellyn have enormous potential.
In 2019 Gatland took three centres with North used on the wing, and the problem is this time there are few nailed on selections.
George North will almost certainly go, while consistent performer Nick Tompkins is also a front-runner.
Grady’s experience at test level will give him an edge over Llewellyn, Roberts, and Ospreys centre Williams.
It could be a straight shootout between powerful Scarlet man Williams and Grady.
Half-backs
Let’s start with those who are as close to certain selection as you can get.
Dan Biggar falls into this bracket with Wales in need of his experience, leadership, game management and goal kicking prowess.
A day will surely come where Scarlets playmaker Sam Costelow is an automatic selection in the Wales side but he might have to bide his time until after the World Cup.
The likelihood is Gatland will have to make a call between Gareth Anscombe, who was his first choice heading into the 2019 tournament before a savage ACL injury put paid to his chances, and the resurgent Owen Williams.
Scrum-half is an interesting one. Rhys Webb ended the Six Nations as first choice, while Tomos Williams brings something different to all the other number nines which gives him an edge in selection.
In recent months Gareth Davies has been playing some of his best rugby in years for the Scarlets.
The 32-year-old’s experience and game breaking ability could be a big asset for Wales but there are many within the game who believe the quicker service of his regional teammate Kieran Hardy should get him the nod.
Whatever side of the fence you sit on, it’ll likely come down to a choice between Scarlets pair Davies, and Hardy.
Front-row
Wales’ scrum never convinced during the Six Nations and got taken to the cleaners against France in Paris, while Gatland has already identified the need for more mobility and ball carriers in his front-five.
In 2019 he took four props, and he’ll almost certainly take the same number to France in the autumn.
Uncapped duo Kemsley Mathias and Corey Domachowski are two players who will go on to win many caps but this may be a World Cup too soon for them.
Nicky Smith has been one of the form props in European rugby this season, with the Ospreys man’s destructive scrummaging a big plus point.
Gareth Thomas has been one of the success stories of the past couple of seasons with his strong scrummaging a crucial factor.
Rhys Carre isn’t as strong in the tight as the other two but he is an explosive carrier around the park and fits the profile of prop Gatland likes.
With that in mind, one of Smith or Thomas could well miss out.
The selection of Montpellier’s former England international Henry Thomas has thrown a real spanner in the works at tighthead.
Tighthead is arguably the weakest position in the squad so Gatland is absolutely right to take a close look at the experienced Thomas.
Tomas Francis would appear to be the front-runner given the fact he’s anchored the Wales scrum admirably for the past eight years but he hasn’t been at his best of late.
Dillon Lewis is not a renowned scrummager but he has improved while his work around the park speaks for itself.
Thomas could put serious pressure on Francis but it would be a big callif Gatland took Kieron Assiratti or Will Davies-King to France.
Hooker is far more straightforward. Both Ken Owens and Dewi Lake are virtual certainties, but Gatland will have to make a tough choice between Ryan Elias, and Elliot Dee.
Second-row
The recent retirement of Alun Wyn Jones may have shocked many but Gatland still has many options at lock.
The New Zealander is a big fan of Adam Beard, while Cory Hill’s recall is timely given how well he played for Wales during the latter years of the first Gatland era.
Will Rowlands is also nailed on, which likely means Dafydd Jenkins, Christ Tshiunza, Ben Carter, and Rhys Davies fighting for one spot.
A big advantage of Tshiunza is he can play lock, blindside, and openside but the return of Hill makes his less of an advantage because the former Cardiff man can also cover the back-row.
Carter’s progress has stalled over the past year, and you sense he has a lot of work to do.
Physical Ospreys man Davies has been outstanding at regional level, and certainly has the physicality to hold his own at test level, but the fact Gatland invested so much time in Jenkins during the Six Nations means he’s the front runner here.
Back-row
The back-row is on a par with the midfield as the toughest area to select.
Wales have lost a significant amount of experience over the past couple of months with the retirements of Justin Tipuric and Josh Navidi, along with Ross Moriarty making himself unavailable.
There’s no point discussing who wears the No 8 jersey because Taulupe Faletau is the first name on the team sheet.
Four years ago Gatland took six loose-forwards which gives those who can play across the back-row a significant advantage.
Both Josh Macleod and Taine Basham can play six, seven, and eight so you’d expect those two to be competing for one spot.
Leicester Tigers’ Tommy Reffell, and Ospreys man Jac Morgan are very likely to go, while Gatland is a big fan of Aaron Wainwright who can play blindside, and No 8.
Despite his age, veteran blindside Dan Lydiate is also someone who cannot be discounted.
Gatland has some sleepless nights ahead of him before he settles on his final 33.
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