SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 18 05 23
Copper rallies despite US dollar strength as inventory levels fall
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Artemis Resources Ltd (ASX:ARV, OTCQB:ARTTF, AIM:ARV) – Recent geological insights guide exploration at the Lulu Creek prospect
Blencowe Resources PLC (LSE:BRES) – £0.6m fundraising to progress DFS on Ugandan graphite project
Cornish Metals Inc (AIM:CUSN, TSX-V:CUSN, OTC:SBWFF)* – Valuation 48p/s – Shaft re-access work and instillation of dewatering pumps
Great Western Mining Corporation PLC (AIM:GWMO)* – Final Results for year ending 31st December 2022
Keras Resources PLC (AIM:KRS)* – Fully focussed on N America as Togo takes on the Nayéga manganese project
Tertiary Minerals PLC (AIM:TYM)* – Exploration update for Lubuila Copper Project
Gold $1.975/oz – Prices slide as optimism rises over US debt ceiling resolution and Treasury yields climb
- Gold slid again today, with spot prices down 50bp to $1,975/oz, a three-week low.
- The move tracks a selloff in US Treasuries, pushing 10-year yields to hold around the 3.6%, a 30bp rally since last week.
- The move in yields and the dollar, which is holding near two-month highs, follows a further repricing of rate hike expectations, with traders now expecting a 69% change of no hike next month.
- Biden met with Kevin McCarthy yesterday to push for a resolution to the debt ceiling, with analysts now expecting the US to avoid a default.
- This renewed optimism has reduced the demand for safehaven assets such as gold, with the bearish momentum a partial reflection of that.
- US retail sales highlighted strong US consumer sentiment remains, adding further complications to the Fed’s fight against inflation.
- ETFs have been slashing gold holdings in line with rising Treasury yields, with the past four days marking the largest series of outflows since March 7th.
Copper rallies following extended sell-off as traders look to long term
- Copper prices jumped $100/t to $8,250/t after extensive losses since mid-April.
- Weak Chinese data has been weighing on the metal, with copper rod output falling 3.5% mom in April as orders slide.
- Global exchanges are seeing some draws of physical copper, although refined premiums suggest demand remains weak.
- Conversely, LME inventories are sitting at their highest levels since January.
- The metal remains in contango, suggesting traders have sufficient access to physical supply.
- However, analysts at CRU are forecasting a major concentrate deficit between 2025-2027.
- On the other hand, expectations for a surplus in 2023 and 2024 remain.
- SMM expects a surplus of copper cathode supply this year owing to rising China smelting capacity.
Iron ore prices rally as Chinese mills ramp up production
- Iron ore prices rallied to three-week highs of $108/t, with analysts pointing to improving steel margins, lower inventories and a ramp up of mill activity.
- 114 mills surveyed by Mysteel suggest ore inventories have been on the slide for three weeks, now down 7.6% since April. (Reuters)
- Several blast furnaces were undergoing maintenance procedures at the start of this month.
- Coking coal, coke and steel prices have all rallied in line with iron ore.
Dow Jones Industrials +1.24% at 33,421
Nikkei 225 +1.60% at 30,574
HK Hang Seng +0.53% at 19,664
Shanghai Composite +0.40% at 3,297
Economics
US – Weekly 30-year mortgage applications fell 5.7% vs +6.3% previously
- 30-year rate 6.57% vs 6.48% previously
- Housing starts rose 2.2% to 1.40m units in in April vs -4.5% in March
- Building permits fell -1.5% to 1.416m units vs -3% in March
China – Qianhai Mercantile Exchange plans to launch lithium carbonate, nickel sulphate and cobalt contracts
- Chinese house price index fell slightly by -0.2% vs -0.8% previously
Japan – Export growth slows to 2.6% yoy, lowest since Feb 2021
- Slowdown primarily driven by weak exports for cars, car parts and steel.
- Exports to Asia now in 4-month contraction but showed strong growth to the US and EU.
- Imports fell 2.3%, first decline in 27 months.
- Q1 GDP rose 0.4% qoq vs 0% in Q4 and 1.6% yoy in Q1 vs -0.1% yoy in Q4
- Stock market hit a 33-year high
EU – CPI at 7% yoy in April, CPI core at 5.6% yoy
- Core CPI rose 5.6% and 5.7% yoy in April.
Argentina rules out Chile-style lithium nationalisation
- An Argentinian mining official noted that ‘any ideas there may be of nationalising lithium have the fundamental hurdle of our national Constitution, which establishes that natural resources belong to provinces.’
- The announcement follows several lawmakers’ move to propose nationalising the Country’s lithium sector.
Australia -Employment falls 4.3k in April vs 25k expected growth, unemployment up to 3.7% (3.5% Expected)
Currencies
US$1.0823/eur vs 1.0821/eur yesterday. Yen 137.63/$ vs 137.15/$. SAr 19.403/$ vs 19.240/$. $1.246/gbp vs $1.242/gbp. 0.664/aud vs 0.664/aud. CNY 7.022/$ vs 7.001/$.
Dollar Index 102.97 vs 102.98 yesterday.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,977/oz vs US$1,986/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 93.9moz vs US$94.0moz yesterday
Platinum US$1,069/oz vs US$1,072/oz yesterday
Palladium US$1,476/oz vs US$1,489/oz yesterday
Silver US$23.56/oz vs US$23.64/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$7,000/oz vs US$7,000/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 8,257/t vs US$8,198/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,293/t vs US$2,265/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 21,180/t vs US$21,205/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,509/t vs US$2,525/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,048/t vs US$2,050/t yesterday
Tin US$ 25,020/t vs US$24,800/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$76.7/bbl vs US$74.9/bbl yesterday
- Crude oil prices moved higher yesterday in line with the general markets as hopes were raised for a deal to raise the US Government’s debt ceiling.
- The EIA reported a 5mb US crude inventory build last week, offset slightly by a 1.4mb gasoline draw and little change to distillate stocks, with refinery utilisation increasing by 1% to 92%.
- Separately, the EIA announced a revision to its estimate for the number of drilled wells per rig in the US due to higher productivity, and now uses a higher rig efficiency of slightly more than 1.3 wells per rig-month (from 1.2).
- European energy prices were stable as EU natural gas storage levels rose 3.2% w/w to 64.3% full (vs 45.5% 5-year average), with ~5TWh builds in France, Germany and Italy contributing to aggregate storage of 726TWh.
Natural Gas US$2.368/mmbtu vs US$2.378/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$53.40/lb vs US$53.40/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$106.8/t vs US$105.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$541.4/t vs US$537.8/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$108.3/t vs US$108.3/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$164.0/t vs US$163.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$224.0/t vs US$224.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$34,930/t vs US$34,930/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$66,791/t vs US$66,061/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$33,111/t vs US$31,352/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$3,990/t vs US$3,990/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,315/t vs US$1,315/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$325/mtu vs US$325/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$775/t vs US$775/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.5/lb vs US$7.5/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 32.25/kg vs US$32.25/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$327/t vs US$328/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$94.0/t vs US$94.0/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$380.0/t vs US$380.0/t
Battery News
German carmakers lobby for tariff-free access to UK
- From 2024, EVs shipped between the UK and the EU will need to have 45% of their parts, and 60% of battery materials, sourced from within the EU or UK or face a 10% tariff, under the “rules of origin” terms set out in their post-Brexit trading agreement.
- With most batteries still sourced from Asia, most EVs are likely to fall short of the new requirements.
- VDA, the German car industry lobby group, has said that urgent adjustments need to be made to the agreement because the European battery industry had not developed fast enough, and tariffs would place “a significant competitive disadvantage for the European car industry in relation to its Asian competitors in the so important UK market”.
- The UK government has already been in discussion with the European Commission about extending the 2024 tariff, but an EU official revealed that Brussels was not open to change.
- Stellantis has already warned that it could be forced to close its UK plant at Ellesmere Port partly due to the impending rules.
- In its statement it also told a parliamentary “If the cost of EV manufacturing in the UK becomes uncompetitive and unsustainable, operations will close.”
Company News
Artemis Resources Ltd (ASX:ARV, OTCQB:ARTTF, AIM:ARV) 0.73p, Mkt Cap £11.3m – Recent geological insights guide exploration at the Lulu Creek prospect
- Artemis Resources reports that a review of historical exploration data, in conjunction with recent work by the Geological Survey of Western Australia (GSWA) and the company’s 2020 drilling results confirms gold mineralisation in association with disseminated sulphide and quartz veins at its Lulu Creek prospect.
- Lulu Creek is located around 20km west of the company’s Carlow Castle project area and lies within the broader Carlow Castle exploration area and is located “along the … [northern] … margin of the 90 km long Regal Thrust who’s splay and secondary structures host numerous mineral occurrences including the Company’s Carlow Castle gold-copper-cobalt deposit”.
- “Drilling has defined … [a quartz diorite intrusion hosting gold mineralisation] … over a 2 km strike length with elevated gold in rock chips over a strike length of 4 km”.
- The company explains that an “Induced Polarisation (IP) survey … [is] … to commence in late May to help identify disseminated sulphides at depth”.
- Among the results from its 2020 drilling which the company highlights in today’s announcement are
- A 2m wide intersection averaging 1.62g/t gold from a depth of 34m in hole CWRC-006; and
- Intersections, each of 1m, at a grade of 4.89g/t gold and 13.7g/t silver from a depth of 24m in hole CWRC-011 and 1.15g/t gold from 9m depth in hole CWRC-017.
- The company explains that at “the time of the 2020 drill program, the significance of intrusion related gold within the Pilbara was not fully appreciated with resources being directed to more advanced projects within the company portfolio” but that work by the GSWA which “identified the presence of ‘Sanukitoid like’ intrusive bodies around the Karratha (granitoid) Dome 2.5 km north-west of the Lulu Creek intrusion” has provided a more focused exploration perspective.
- Exploration Manager, Luke Meter, said that in the context of “a new understanding of the importance of intrusion related gold in the Pilbara, including the identification of Sanukitoid like intrusions by the GSWA in the vicinity of the Karratha Granodiorite, some 2.5 km from Lulu Creek. The significance of the historic gold mineralisation … becomes apparent”.
- In addition to the planned IP survey, “a mapping and reconnaissance program will be conducted to identify extensions and new unidentified intrusions within the vicinity of Lulu Creek”.
Conclusion: Early-stage exploration at Lulu Creek is being guided by recent geological insights and being followed up by geophysical induced-polarisation surveys and futher mapping and reconnaissance sampling. We await the results with interest.
Blencowe Resources PLC (LSE:BRES) 5.1p, Mkt Cap £9.7m – £0.6m fundraising to progress DFS on Ugandan graphite project
- Blencowe Resource reports that it has raised £635,000 though the issue of 12.7m shares at 5p/share. We estimate that the new shares represent approximately 6% of the enlarged capital.
- The funds will be used to “to maintain momentum on the Definitive Feasibility Study” for the Orom Cross Graphite Project in Uganda which hosts shallow open-pittable graphite mineralisation containing an indicated and inferred JORC resource of 24.5mt at an average grade of 6% total graphite.
- The company says that Orom Cross is “expected to benefit from a low strip ratio and free dig operations, thereby ensuring lower operating and capital costs”.
- Welcoming the additional funds “to continue the DFS work programmes without delay”, Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, confirmed that “we are making progress on our metallurgical studies in China and the US, with initial results expected in the near term. A favourable outcome in the test work has the potential to ultimately provide a funding solution for Orom-Cross to first production”.
- Initial production at Orom-Cross is expected to be 55,000tpa with average annual production of 101,000tpa over an initial 14-year life of mine (PFS July 2022).
Cornish Metals Inc (AIM:CUSN, TSX-V:CUSN, OTC:SBWFF)* – 12.69p, Mkt cap £68m – Shaft re-access work and instillation of dewatering pumps
Valuation 48p/s
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- Work towards the reopening of the South Crofty tin mine is going a pace with news on progress for the refurbishment of the NCK shaft and on the dewatering plant.
- Shaft refurbishment: Management have now ordered two single drum winders for working on the shaft.
- The main winder is coming from from Siemag Tecberg along with a spare, emergency winder from Zitron due in October and August this year.
- Dewatering: Testing of the submersible pump for the shaft has been done with the pumps due for instillation in May and June.
- “The above water timber compartments in the shaft have been inspected down to No.1 Level, with most sets found to be in good condition.”
- The new £6.5-7.0m water treatment plant will be commissioned shortly with dewatering due to start this summer.
- The MWTP ‘Mine Water Treatment Plant’ is designed to handle 25,000m3 a day indicating an 18-month dewatering program
- “Wet commissioning of the MWTP is now expected to commence in late June (rather than late May) and extend through July, with commencement of mine dewatering in early August.
- The discharge pipes from the MWTP down into the Dolcoath Deep Adit (the historic drainage tunnel running northwards from South Crofty beneath Pool and Camborne to Roscroggan) have been installed.
- Renewable power regeneration: “A turbine will be added ahead of the discharge point that will generate up to 15% of the electricity required to operate the MWTP.”
- Drilling:
- Carn Brea: Drilling at Carn Brea just south of the main shaft encountered a previously unknown zone which could add another 30,000t of in-situ metal to the resource within easy reach of the decline.
- The area was drilled following the digitization of much of the historic mine and drill hole data in Cornwall which clearly shows gaps between mineral lodes.
- The discovery is known as the ‘Wide Formation’ and is inferred to lie parallel to and beneath the known ‘Great Flat Lode’.
- Further drilling is required to determine a new resource in this area and to eventually bring Carn Brea into the South Crofty mine plan.
- United Downs (8km east of the South Crofty): >10,000m of exploration drilling has been done to test the UD Lode, United Mines, Mount Wellington and Trenares Lodes.
- United Downs should be accessible from a 655m decline at the Wheal Maid mine which was built in the 1980s. Further drilling is being considered to follow up on the results.
- Metallurgical drill and testwork programme: Further news is due on the metallurgical work being done in preparation for the mine reopening.
- Drilling at South Crofty to collect samples for metallurgical testing has been ongoing with results due shortly
- We expect news on the following shortly:
- Metallurgical flowsheet design and optimisation work from Wardell Armstrong International;
- Paste backfill studies being conducted by Paterson & Cooke;
- XRT ore sorting testwork being undertaken by TOMRA.
- Mike Hallewell, the former Mill Superintendent and Chief Metallurgist at South Crofty and Wheal Jane has been retained.
- Resource
- South Crofty has an current NI 43-101 defined an indicated resource:
Lower mine:- 2.08mt grading 1.59% tin indicated, within the granite-hosted Lower Mine area
- 1.94mt grading 1.67% tin inferred.
Upper mine: - 0.277mt grading 1.01 tin eq. in the killas-hosted Upper Mine area
- 493kt grading tin eq.
- South Crofty carries the world’s fourth highest mine tin grade and has substantial infrastructure enabling the rapid restart of mining following the dewatering program.
- The mine South Crofty was the last Cornish tin mine to close in 1998 and ranks just behind Bisie in the DRC, San Rafel in Peru, and Renison Bell in Tasmania which has a similar grade to South Crofty.
- First documented production from South Crofty dates back to 1592 when tin and copper production was documented.
- Cash: The company reported a cash balance of C$55.5m at the year end following a £40.5m investment, including £25m by Vision Blue Resources last May.
Conclusion: We look forward to further news on the metallurgical drill and testwork programme. News on progress relating to the Feasibility Study is also expected shortly with the study due for completion by the year end.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Cornish Metals. The analyst formerly worked in the Souht Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals.
Great Western Mining Corporation PLC (AIM:GWMO)* 0.1p, Mkt Cap £4.7m – Final Results for year ending 31st December 2022
- Great Western Mining reports its full year results to 31st December 2022.
- Over the year, the Company successfully formed a JV for the construction of a gravity separation mill to process precious metals.
- Construction has begun on site and the necessary permits have been submitted to the Nevada Department of Environmental Protection.
- Processing will start with both joint venture partners providing their own material before attracting third party material to ramp up revenue and cash flow generation.
- Great Western is considering options for its indicated/inferred JORC-compliant M2 Copper Resource of 4.3mt Cu @ 0.45%, believing there is potential for expansion along strike in both directions.
- The Company continued to progress its prospective exploration licences, with RC drill programmes on the Olympic, Mineral Jackpot and Trafalgar Hill claim blocks.
- Four holes were drilled at Mineral Jackpot in 2022, with highlights including:
- 7.6m @180g/t Ag from 4.6m
- At the historic OMCO Mine, the team successfully established an extension as hoped to the high-grade vein. Drilling highlights include:
- 6.1m @ 2.7g/t Au from 38m
- The team also delivered a maiden JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate at OMCO, totalling 31kt @ 1.6g/t Au in the inferred category.
- Whilst the Company’s cash balance stood at £150k at the end of the reporting period, a successful £800k equity placing has subsequently been completed.
- Going forward, the Company will prioritise pursuing the OMCO vein extension and high-grade silver results from Mineral Jackpot with additional drilling whilst progressing with the mill construction.
Conclusion: Great Western enjoyed substantial success in 2022 with the discovery of the OMCO vein extension, establishing JORC-compliant resources at the historic Olympic mine site and generating exploration targets at Mineral Jackpot alongside high-grade silver intercepts. We are reassured to learn the processing operations are progressing well, establishing itself as the only mill of its kind in the region. We look forward to further updates and additional positive exploration results from the Company’s extensive claim blocks.
*SP Angel act as Broker to Great Western Mining, an SP Angel Analyst has visited Great Western’s Nevada claim blocks
Keras Resources PLC (AIM:KRS)* 5.25p, Mkt cap £3.9m – Fully focussed on N America as Togo takes on the Nayéga manganese project
(Keras holds 100% of the Diamond Creek phosphate mine in Utah, UASA. Keras also holds an 85% interest in Societé General des Mines for the Nayéga manganese project in Togo)
- Keras Resources reports that it has agreed with Togo that the Nayéga manganese project is “a Togolese strategic asset” and that it will be transferred to a state company, Société Togolaise de Manganèse along with Keras Resources’ “intellectual knowledge on Nayéga”.
- Keras will receive a US$1.7m cash payment and “will be paid an advisory fee of 1.5% … of gross revenue generated from the Nayéga mine for the provision of advisory services for 3 (three) years … [as well as] … 6.0% … of gross revenue generated from the Nayéga mine for the provision of brokerage services for the lesser of 3.5 (three and a half) years or 900,000 (nine hundred thousand) tonnes of beneficiated manganese ore produced and sold from Nayéga”.
- The company says that the proceeds from Nayéga “will be used to fund the second US$800,000 tranche for the acquisition of Falcon Isle” which owns the Diamond Creek “high-grade organic rock phosphate mine located in Utah”.
- Keras Resources confirms that as a result of its agreement with Togo it is now fully-funded to start resource exploration in Utah as well as to convert its “current mining permit to a large-scale mining permit which will create significant flexibility in medium to long term mining operations” and to complete the granulator plant and research “the development of liquid organic products from our existing product streams in order to access markets not already served”.
- CEO, Graham Stacey, explained that the agreement over Nayéga “finalises Keras’s transition into a fully focussed high grade organic fertiliser producer in the United States … [and] … draws a line through the uncertainty related to the Nayéga asset”.
- The company confirms that the cash payment from Togo, which is “due on 17 July 2023 and ongoing cashflows associated with this Agreement underpins the already robust Diamond Creek mine economics which Keras will continue to develop into the premier organic phosphate producer in the US”.
Conclusion: Disposal of Nayéga provides funds for Keras Resources to expand and focus on its Utah phosphate business while eliminating uncertainty surrounding the development of the manganese project in Togo.
The deal with the Togo government should give nearly $0.9m a year at a price of $3.5/dmt for manganese and production of 7,480tpa equating to some $2.6m over three years.
Indonesian manganese ore currently sells for around $4/dmt which would give Keral around $3m over three years. If manganese prices rise to $6/dmt the value of the deal to Keras should rise to around $4.4m assuming production of 7,480tpa and to $14m if production runs at 23,375tpa.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Keras
Tertiary Minerals PLC (AIM:TYM)* 0.14p, Mkt cap £2.8m – Exploration update for Lubuila Copper Project
CLICK FOR PDF
- Tertiary provides an update on its Lubuila Zambian copper exploration project.
- The Company announces it has completed a soil sampling programme, including additional follow-up sampling following pXRF results.
- 425 samples were collected targeting Lower Roan Subgroup sediments alongside an historical copper-in-soil anomaly discovered from previous campaigns.
- pXRF results suggest a large, open-ended copper-in-soil anomaly over an area around 1km-0.68km, with peak copper values of 306ppm and an average value of 125ppm Cu.
- Samples will now be sent for wet geochemical ICP analysis.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals
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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver – BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel – Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt – LME
Oil Brent – ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore – NYMEX
Thermal Coal – Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal – SSY
RRE – Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite – Asian Metal
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