With the Rugby World Cup a little over three months away it’s safe to say Wales aren’t in as strong a position as they have been in the past.
In 2011, 2015, and 2019 Warren Gatland had a settled side with significant experience behind their belts, while players had an almost telepathic understanding of each other, and the game plan.
This time around it is somewhat different with Gatland, who was reappointed as head coach following the sacking of Wayne Pivac, paying the price for the flawed selection policy of his predecessor over the past three years.
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WalesOnline take a look at what players, injury permitting, are nailed on to start Wales’ World Cup opener against Fiji in Bordeaux on September 10.
Back-three
There’s plenty of quality in the back-three but you could argue not one player is guaranteed his place.
Gatland has always been a big fan of Leigh Halfpenny whose technical proficiency and prolific goal kicking has been a huge asset to Wales over the years but at 34 he isn’t guaranteed a place in his 33-man squad.
When fully fit and at his best Liam Williams is Wales’ best full-back but there have always been concerns over his decision making under pressure, with many coaches of the opinion he dies too often with the ball.
He is the likely starter at full-back but is by no means guaranteed.
Cardiff wing Josh Adams is another who has been a fine servant to the red jersey since making his test debut in 2018 but he was below par during the Six Nations, while Rio Dyer and Alex Cuthbert are both likely to be fighting for a place in the overall squad.
Louis Rees-Zammit is very likely to start but even the razor-sharp Gloucester wing is not a certainty given he was in and out of the side during the Six Nations.
Verdict – Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit, and Josh Adams will be the likely back-three but are they certain of their positions? No.
Centres
The midfield will surely be an area of concern for Gatland with the World Cup on the horizon.
In 2011 and 2015 Wales had experienced pair Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies, who had played a significant amount of Test rugby, while they also had a telepathic understanding of each other.
It was the same in 2019 when Davies was partnered with his then Scarlets team-mate Hadleigh Parkes.
But Gatland’s predecessor Wayne Pivac never really nailed down a first-choice centre pairing, and Gatland has been sent a hospital pass in this respect.
With Joe Hawkins ineligible owing to the 25-cap law, Gatland has some serious thinking to do.
He hasn’t been at his best since damaging his ACL in 2021 but George North’s experience makes him the strong favourite to wear the number 13 jersey against Fiji, although the up and coming Mason Grady cannot be discounted.
As for who starts at inside centre we may as well take names from a hat.
Powerful Scarlets midfielder Johnny Williams ticks every box except one – he can’t stay fit – while experienced Saracens man Nick Tompkins is as reliable as anyone.
Ospreys tyro Keiran Williams is the form centre in Wales but will his inexperience on the international stage count against him?
Verdict – There’s more chance of buying the winning lottery ticket than accurately predicting who lines up in midfield for Wales against Fiji.
Half-backs
Wales have some decent strength in depth at 10 but there is no guaranteed starter.
The experienced Dan Biggar, who held the captain’s armband during the dying embers of the Pivac era, is probably the favourite but even the Toulon man was dropped during the Six Nations with Owen Williams starting against England and Italy respectively.
But Gatland will be delighted to welcome Gareth Anscombe back from injury.
In 2019 Anscombe was Gatland’s first-choice playmaker heading into the World Cup but suffered a horrific lower leg injury in a warm-up Test against England which kept him on the sidelines for the best part of two years.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if Gatland prefers Anscombe at 10 but the presence of Biggar and Williams means he is not a guaranteed starter.
With regards who starts at scrum-half the smart money is Gatland swapping between Rhys Webb and Tomos Williams, depending on the opposition.
Verdict – No nailed-on starters at half-back either.
Front-row
Following British & Irish Lions Test prop Wyn Jones’ shock omission from the extended training squad it is highly likely Gatland will take Nicky Smith, Gareth Thomas and Rhys Carre to France.
All three are quality operators but there is very little between all three looseheads with each one boasting different strengths meaning there isn’t a nailed-on starter here either.
One would think the experienced Ken Owens would be close to a guaranteed selection given he was captain during the Six Nations but the return to fitness of giant Ospreys hooker Dewi Lake complicates matters.
Owens is the more experienced player and his throwing in at the lineout is more accurate, but Lake is young, while his ball carrying is hugely impactful. Lake also mirrors freakish Springboks hooker Malcolm Marx at the breakdown which will appeal to Gatland.
For the majority of the past eight years Tomas Francis has been an automatic selection at tighthead given his set-piece prowess but his standards have slipped of late.
Dillon Lewis may not be a top-end international-class scrummager but his set-piece work has improved, while he offers far more around the park than the Ospreys man.
It’s also very doubtful Gatland would have selected 31-year-old former England international Henry Thomas in his extended squad if he wasn’t a serious contender to tour.
Verdict – There are players who are nailed on for the 23 but as for guaranteed starters in the front-row? There aren’t any.
Second-row
As long as he is fit Racing 92-bound lock Will Rowlands is as close to a nailed-on starter as possible, even more so after Alun Wyn Jones’ abrupt retirement last week.
Wales missed Rowlands badly during the Six Nations when he was sidelined with a shoulder injury.
The 31-year-old is a dynamic ball carrier, a very good lineout forward and is extremely physical in the tight exchanges.
Gatland has always been a big admirer of giant Ospreys lock Adam Beard but the return of Cory Hill means he is no longer an automatic starter.
Verdict – Will Rowlands is nailed on to start but who partners him is far from certain.
Back-row
There’s no point discussing who wears the No 8 jersey with Taulupe Faletau the first name on the entire team sheet.
He may be at the tailend of his career but the Cardiff star remains one of the top three No 8s in world rugby, while there is quite literally no alternative option.
The retirements of Josh Navidi and Justin Tipuric, along with the unavailability of Ross Moriarty, complicates things a bit more in the back-row.
Wales may have lost a lot of experience but Jac Morgan and Tommy Reffell have the potential to develop into world-class loose forwards.
Gatland will certainly start with one of those against Fiji but which one is the question.
Of course, he could opt to pick both of them in the same back-row from the off looking to attack Fiji at the breakdown where both players specialise but would that be the right balance.
He may prefer a more natural blindside such as Dragons man Aaron Wainwright, a player he has long admired, to ensure more a better variety of skills in the back-row.
Verdict – Taulupe Faletau is absolutely nailed on to start but the rest of the back-row selection is up in the air.
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