Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the eight remaining games in Round 10.
North Melbourne versus Sydney
Nick Larkey with 2+ goals
Nick Larkey is back rolling again.
The Roos forward started out the season on fire, kicking 12 goals through the first three games, came back to earth over the next three, booting just two majors total.
Yet it looks as though Larkey is back out of his slump, having kicked multiple goals in each of his last three matches and playing with confidence.
Matched up against a depleted Sydney backline, there’s nothing standing in the way of Larkey kicking a bag… or at least a pair.
Chad Warner 25+ touches
While Chad Warner hasn’t quite exploded into superstardom like many hoped after his breakout year in 2022, the young gun is still having an excellent season.
Averaging 24.6 disposals through the first nine games, Warner has been one of the most pivotal players in Sydney’s engine room.
The midfielder becomes even more important in the absence of his running mate Callum Mills, who faces a month on the sidelines with a calf issue.
Expect Warner to pick up the slack and have a field day against the struggling Kangaroos.
Jack Makeham
Western Bulldogs versus Adelaide
Tom Liberatore to have 20+ touches and 5+ clearances
Tom Liberatore is in the form of his life.
The heart and soul Dog is the second-highest ranked player this season according to the AFL player ratings, behind only his teammate Marcus Bontempelli.
With a season-low of 23 disposals and three clearances, you’d expect Liberatore to at least have 20 and five in conditions that could suit stoppage footy in Ballarat.
He’s averaging 27 touches and seven clearances so far this year, making this stat-line a certainty if he remains fit.
Darcy Fogarty to kick two or more goals
With Taylor Walker and Riley Thilthorpe out of the side, Darcy Fogarty will be Adelaide’s main focal point looking inside 50.
Having kicked multiple goals in all but two games this season, Fogarty should again get plenty of shots on goal given his teammates will be looking to him more often than not.
Two goals is an easy marker given Adelaide may need him to go big if they’re to win in Ballarat.
Lachlan Geleit
Fremantle versus Geelong
Tom Stewart to enjoy 20+ disposals, 5+ intercept possessions
The Geelong vice-captain had the day of his career last year against the Dockers, enjoying 40 disposals, 14 marks, nine rebound 50s and six inside 50s.
If allowed to roam as he pleases, Stewart will likely do the same once again. Justin Longmuir would likely be happy to allow that again, given the Dockers triumphed the Cats down at GMHBA Stadium.
The 30-year-old hasn’t dropped below 20 touches since returning from injury in Round 3 and it’d take a drastic shift – and effort from the Dockers – to stop him racking up that number and intercept possessions on Saturday afternoon.
Luke Jackson to kick at least one goal
The former Demon has been amongst the league’s best players over the past fortnight and he’ll likely get the Esava Ratugolea matchup when he plays forward this weekend.
Ratugolea’s intercepting capability has been brilliant in his first season down back, but on the vast expanses of Optus Stadium, his one-on-one ability will be tested.
If Fremantle can continue the speed on the ball – as seen across the last two weeks – Jackson, one of the best one-on-one players himself, should find enough space to get at least a goal.
But if he starts racking up the touches too, that’s when the Geelong coaching staff will get worried.
Seb Mottram
Brisbane versus Gold Coast
Daniher to kick 2+ goals and take 5+ marks
Joe Daniher is in a rich vein of form which has resulted in 17 goals in his last five outings.
He booted six majors against his old club the Bombers last week so is primed coming into this Q-Clash.
In two games against the Suns last year he kicked 3.4 and 3.1, adding to 3.4 and 2.2 in 2021, making it a total of 11.11 plus 15 marks in four Q-Clashes.
At the Gabba this year, he has kicked 15 goals and taken 24 marks in four outings.
The stage is set for another strong home performance from Joe and we’re tipping him to kick two goals at the very least while taking at least five marks.
Rowell and Anderson to combine for 40+ disposals, 7+ tackles and 8+ clearances
Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson have been doing a mountain of work in the middle for the Suns in the absence of Touk Miller.
Rowell averages 21.6 disposals, nine tackles and 7.7 clearances in 2023.
Anderson is dominating in finding the pill, averaging 27.8 touches plus 3.9 tackles and 7.3 clearances.
We’re forecasting that the midfield duo will stand up against the Lions and combine for at least 40 disposals.
For good measure we’ll thrown in at least seven tackles and at least eight clearances.
Andrew Slevison
Essendon versus Richmond
Merrett to have 25+ disposals and 4+ clearances
Zach Merrett has a fairly decent record against the Tigers.
In his last five against them he has picked up 37, 33, 32, 34 and 30 touches (including a total of 30 clearances at 6 per game) while averaging 27.15 over 13 games career-wise.
In 2023, he is averaging 27.2 touches and 4.4 clearances, and with Darcy Parish and Will Setterfield out of the side, the Bombers are going to rely on him to deliver.
Against the Tigers on Saturday night, Merrett should be ticking off at least 25 disposals while adding four or more clearances to this stats sheet.
Vlastuin and Bolton to combine for 30+ disposals, 6+ marks and 1+ goal
Nick Vlastuin plays his 200th game on Saturday night.
The three-time premiership defender has had a solid season, averaging 18 disposals and 5.6 marks.
Shai Bolton plays his 100th game on Saturday night.
The electric forward/midfielder has found form of late and now averages 20 touches, 3.4 marks and 1.2 goals per game this season.
Richmond’s milestone men should combine for at least 30 disposals and six marks, while we’ll throw in at least one goal (thanks Shai).
Andrew Slevison
Hawthorn versus West Coast
Jai Newcombe for 20+ disposals, 5+ clearances
Champion Data rates Jai Newcombe as one of the league’s best players of recent weeks and it’s not hard to see why.
He was quiet when his side was smashed by the Dockers, but outside of that game hasn’t dropped below 24 touches since Round 4.
Against a decimated midfield, he’ll be one of the best on-ballers on the ground, not just in brown and gold.
The fact he enjoyed 28 disposals last time he played the Eagles doesn’t hurt either.
The Eagles to kick at least 50 points
They couldn’t reach it last week, but surely Adam Simpson’s side is a shoo-in for 50 or more points.
To kick seven or eight goals in a game of football would normally be a sneeze for a professional side, but the Eagles’ struggles run deeper than perhaps any side we’ve seen before.
However, Hawthorn too has issues in defence and has conceded at least 77 points in every contest this year.
Against a defence such as that, even without Jack Darling, expect West Coast to struggle its way to some sort of score.
Seb Mottram
Carlton versus Collingwood
Sam Walsh to have 25 or more disposals
Carlton were without Sam Walsh in last year’s gut-wrenching Round 23 loss to Collingwood in 2022, and they’ll be buoyed by his presence in this game.
After starting the season injured, Walsh hasn’t missed a beat since returning securing at least 25 touches in all five of his appearances.
Walsh also likes playing against Collingwood, with the star midfielder averaging 34.3 touches from his last three games against the Magpies.
25 touches should be a breeze.
Josh Daicos to have 20 or more disposals
While his brother Nick has rightly deserved plenty of plaudits, Josh Daicos has quietly gone about building a career-best season.
Currently Daicos is averaging 27 touches a game, with Collingwood’s wingmen critical to the way they want to move the ball.
In Collingwood’s two wins over Carlton last year, their wings played a huge role with Daicos picking up 23 and 28 disposals in the two tight victories respectively.
Expect him to cruise past 20 on the wide expanses of the MCG.
Lachlan Geleit
GWS versus St Kilda
Toby Greene to kick two or more goals
GWS have been without their captain and superstar Toby Greene in the past two weeks and it has shown.
Having gone down to both the Dogs and Magpies in the past fortnight, the Giants have clearly lacked some star power and they’ll be thrilled he’s returning to play the Saints.
Currently averaging 14 disposals and 2.8 goals a game, you just know Toby will be ready to burst out of the blocks in his return game.
Expect him to have a big performance here.
Brad Crouch to have 20 or more disposals
St Kilda midfielder Brad Crouch has somewhat flown under the radar in 2023, averaging 28 disposals from nine games so far this season.
The former Crow has only picked up less than 20 touches once this season, so don’t expect that to happen again versus the Giants.
With Jack Steele also under an injury cloud, Crouch could well be St Kilda’s go-to man in the middle.
Lachlan Geleit