The Sydney Swans host the Carlton Blues to kick off the 2023 AFL season’s Round 11 with both teams needing a big win to boost their flagging finals hopes.
SYDNEY SWANS (4-6) v CARLTON BLUES (4-5-1) BETTING PREVIEW
SYDNEY SWANS: $1.97 (via bet365)
CARLTON BLUES: $1.85 (via TopSport)
SCG, Friday, 7.50pm
Full CODE Bet Match Centre here
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT
- Carlton have won three of the last four over Sydney, but the Swans are 11-4 against the Blues since 2012.
- Sydney has lost three straight at the SCG.
- Carlton are 2-8 at the SCG since 2010.
THE MATCH-UP
As round 11 of the AFL kicks off at the SCG on Friday, both Sydney and Carlton are desperate for a win to keep their season afloat.
Last week Sydney snuck over the line against the Roos to arrest a four-game slide but still sit 4-6, while Carlton delivered another dispiriting performance while being smashed by Collingwood to drop to 4-5-1, having lost five of its last six.
The Blues won this clash last year 102-87 at Marvel and over the past few years Carlton have won three of the last four games against Sydney, but over the past decade Sydney have dominated the matchup, winning 11 of the past 15 meetings.
Carlton’s offensive ineptitude is well documented, ranked 13th in the AFL while putting up only 79.3 points a game with the last two Coleman Medal winners is beyond the pale. Giving up only 79.6 a game has them at seventh defensively, but usually giving up more points than you score isn’t a great avenue for success.
Sydney at least can point to injuries for their struggles on defence (giving up 88.3, 14th in the AFL) but they’ve kept their heads above water with the 86.8 points they’re putting up per game (ranked 8th).
Carlton’s last three games have all gone under the total points line, while nine of the past 13 night games Sydney have played at the SCG have gone under as well.
Lance Franklin of the Swans celebrates during round 10 of the AFL. Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
SWANS UNDER THE RADAR
The undermanned Swans were extremely lucky to get by North Melbourne last week to snap their four-game losing streak, but Hayden McLean kicked true and the Swans got their fourth win of the season. But with such a long injury list they face a tough road to stay in the finals hunt.
Luckily they play a Carlton squad this week that’s stumbling around looking for answers and not finding any.
Carlton’s midfield defensive structure is a mess and ball-movers like Luke Parker, Chad ‘Chundley’ Warner and Errol ‘Whoa Errol’ Gulden will be free to roam. Parker had 26 touches last year, Warner 20 and Gulden 23.
With the injuries Sydney have dealt with Gulden in particular has lifted this year, averaging over 25 disposals a game.
But more scarily for Carlton fans is just how much Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin loves tearing up the Blues.
In 19 career games against Carlton, Buddy is 16-3 and has kicked a ridiculous 73 goals, the fourth-highest mark Franklin has against a team over his long and storied career.
Buddy also has bags of 10, 7, 6 and 4 (twice) against the Blues while playing for the Swans, while averaging that 3.8 goals a game against them across his career.
After finding some form last week with 3 majors against North, Franklin should relish going against a Blues backline he’s feasted on before, especially considering he’s at the SCG, where he averages 3.2 snags a game.
Sam Walsh of the Blues tries to clear as he is tackled by Steele Sidebottom of the Magpies. Picture: Michael Klein
THE BLUES ARE STILL BLUE
Carlton is staring into the abyss. Letters from its president, coaching speculation, underperforming stars: they’re all hallmarks of a club in turmoil.
What puts that to rest (for now) is a win on the road against a team they’ve historically underperformed against.
That likely starts in the midfield with the engine room of Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps and Adam Cerra. Sydney allow just under the AFL average of opponent possessions (354.6), but Carlton average 385.4 disposals: whether or not the Blues are in this game falls to the midfield not just getting the ball, but how they use it.
For all those disposals, Carlton are the sixth-worst team for inside-50s: they need to move forward quicker through not just Walsh and Cripps, but the likes of Cerra, Matthew Kennedy and Blake Acres. Cerra is having a career-best year while averaging 27 touches a game and leading the Blues for inside 50s with 51.
Charlie Curnow of the Blues celebrates a goal during round 10. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images
FIRST GOAL KICKER AND BEST SWANS-BLUES PLAYER TIP
Charlie Curnow is leading the Coleman Medal with 36 goals already in 10 games, but as the focus of the Blues attack he’s also kicked the first goal of the game five times since the start of last season.
Plus, against this undersized Swans defence, Curnow should feast and had six against Sydney last year. He’s been threatening: if the Carlton midfield has a fire lit under them and provide decent delivery, Curnow could feast again.
THE PICK
Despite the injury list it’s hard to go past Sydney at home against a team they’ve historically had the wood on, but the form of the Swans at home with three straight losses and not covering the line in five straight games is a worry.
On the other side, if Carlton don’t respond this week, their season is looking cooked, but the 2-10 SCG record speaks volumes and their midfield defence just isn’t quite up to snuff.
This game should be extremely tight and in normal circumstances the Swans experience in big games should see them squeak out the win, but with all those injuries (especially in the backline), the best value lies with Carlton just falling over the line.
Errol Gulden of the Swans kicks a goal during round 10. Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
— BLUES SWANS BARRAGE SAME GAME MULTI —
- Lance Franklin – 3+ goals
In 19 career games against the Blues, Buddy averages 3.8 goals and a total of 73 in 19 stoushes.
- Charlie Curnow – 3+ goals
Curnow had six against the Swans last season and with injuries leaving the Sydney backline undersized, the Coleman leader will have plenty of chances.
- Errol Gulden – 25+ disposals
‘Whoa’ Errol has been terrific this year and is averaging 25.5 disposals a game.
- Adam Cerra – 25+ disposals
Cerra is averaging 27 touches a game this season.
- Sam Walsh – 25+ disposals
Walsh has had over 25 touches in every game he’s played this year.
FIVE-LEG SAME GAME MULTI @ $9.50 (via Betr)
[all odds as of May 24]
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