How can the Swans rebound from a horror Grand Final loss?
SYDNEY SWANS (3-5) v FREMANTLE DOCKERS (3-5) BETTING PREVIEW
SYDNEY SWANS: $1.31 (via betr)
FREMANTLE DOCKERS: $3.75 (via bet365)
SGC, Saturday, 1:45pm
Full CODE Bet Match Centre here
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT
- Fremantle have lost their last six matches in NSW.
- Fremantle has lost the first quarter in 11 of its last 12 matches.
- Tom Papley plays game 150 on Saturday.
THE MATCH-UP
Both teams enter this game with 3-5 records and both face off at the SCG on Saturday afternoon desperate for a win.
The Swans threw everything at Collingwood but – like most other teams – fell short in their efforts to stop the Magpies. Fremantle had it much easier taking on a ‘managed’ Hawthorn, in what was essentially a free kick of a win at Optus Stadium.
Fremantle haven’t won against the Swans in Sydney since July 2011 and these two teams last played in 2022. That was in Perth with Chad ‘Chundly’ Warner having a breakout game, with 35 disposals and a goal, as he led the Swans to a three goal win.
In a worrying sign for the Swans after two big wins to start the season, Sydney have failed to cover the line in five of its past six matches.
Isaac Heeney of the Swans in action. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images
THEY MUST WIN
It is not all doom and gloom for the Swans, a ridiculous injury list in key positions is hardly ideal with Dane Rampe, Tom McCartin, Peter Ladhams and Paddy McCartin all out injured, along with Joel Amartey and others.
If the Swans kicked straight last weekend, a win against Collingwood was not out of the realm of possibility. Isaac Heeney, Peter Ladhams and Aaron Francis missed a combined five shots on goal that looked like ‘sitters’.
The Swans now come home to the SCG where twice in three games this year they’ve kicked over 100 points, and scored 90 or more in six of their last eight games.
Errol Gulden was sensational last week with 37 possessions; he’s in career best form and does not mind a goal against Fremantle. He has kicked three in the two games played against Fremantle.
One last chance for Isaac Heeney to show us how good he is, he has been very scratchy this season and is well off of his best. In his past three games against Fremantle the Heen Machine has seven goals and 64 disposals.
Have to give Tom Papley a mention in game 150 for the Swans. He will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing few weeks.
Luke Jackson of the Dockers in action. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images
THE TALLS CAN DOMINATE
Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson will be licking their lips in anticipation of this matchup against the Swans.
With Swans number one ruckman Tom Hickey having not played a game all season set to play his first game this weekend and Peter Ladhams coming off a poor showing against Collingwood – where he lost the hitout count 46-19.
Darcy and Jackson can dominate the hit-outs and give Fremantle a huge advantage in clearances and set up at stoppages around the ground and if players such as Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong get first use of the ball it could be a long day for the Swans.
Coincidently Andrew Brayshaw was dominant last weekend en route to the win over Hawthorn, totalling 34 disposals, eight tackles and two goals, while Luke Jackson had his best outing as a Docker, finishing with 24 disposals and two goals.
Andrew Brayshaw – 30+ disposals: $2.15 (via Ladbrokes)
A deep dive into Fremantle is worrying, other than the one point loss to North Melbourne in round two. When the Dockers lose, they get hammered. They were choked to death in round one by St Kilda by three goals, then 39, 48 and 49 point losses in their other three of five.
The wins over Hawthorn and West Coast are a bit misleading and don’t reflect the form Fremantle is in.
In 20 games in Sydney against the Swans, Fremantle have averaged 79.4 points and conceded 100.75.
HAYWARD, STOPPED BEING WAYWARD
For such a brilliant kick of the football Will Hayward has 10 goals and nine behinds this year; in the last two weeks he has straightened up and kicked 6.2. He can get the Swans off to a flyer
Errol Gulden of the Swans kicks. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images
THE PICK
Have to be with the Swans, all the indications are there that a few wins on the bounce are coming and they love playing Fremantle at home
— SYDNEY SWANS SATURDAY SURGE SGM —
Reasons outlined above, the Swans are in better form than Fremantle.
- Errol Gulden 25+ disposals
After a career high 37 last week, Gulden should back that performance up.
- Chad Warner 25+ disposals
Warner has had 25+ in five games this season including two of three at the SCG.
Papley will look to light up the SCG in game 150.
McDonald has been the Swans most consistent form this season with 17 goals so far.
[all odds as of May 10]
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