CODE Bet AFL Show – Round 12 of the 2023 AFL Season: best bets, player props and picks for every AFL game this weekend! The CODE Bet AFL show this week digs into the biggest clashes this weekend with for the best player props, match bets, game picks and AFL Fantasy value, with a Friday night picks, line bets, over unders and not Harry McFive? With all seven AFL games broken down and picked, there’s everything you need for your AFL betting for the weekend ahead. CODE Bet’s Jaymz Clements, Alex Donnelly and Social guy Leo dive into betting tips for all the teams and players who will dominate in this week’s AFL action.
Gold Coast and Adelaide head into this match with both teams needing to win and neither able afford to lose at this stage of the season. That’s the scene setter for Round 12 action at TIO Stadium on Saturday night as the Suns take on the Crows.
Which team will back up its big win from last weekend?
GOLD COAST SUNS (5-6) v ADELAIDE CROWS (6-5) BETTING PREVIEW
GOLD COAST SUNS: $1.88 (via Ladbrokes)
ADELAIDE CROWS: $1.97 (via bet365)
TIO Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm
Full CODE Bet Match Centre here
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT
- Adelaide have won 14 of its last 16 against Gold Coast.
- Gold Coast has won its last three at TIO Stadium.
- Ben King has 3+ goals in his last two games against Adelaide.
THE MATCH-UP
Both teams are fighting for a place inside the top eight on Saturday night, as Gold Coast and Adelaide go head to head in search of a crucial victory at TIO Stadium in Darwin.
The Suns hold a 5-6 record in 2023 after upsetting the Western Bulldogs by seven points last weekend and have now won three straight in Darwin.
Adelaide got back on board taking care of Brisbane at home 95-78, Adelaide are now 5-2 at the Adelaide Oval this season, but 1-3 when playing out of state.
Gold Coast belted Adelaide 116-73 in Queensland last year when these two teams last met.
That marked one of only two Gold Coast wins in the last 16 games between the two teams, with the Crows covering the line in 14 of those 16
Jack Lukosius of the Suns celebrates a goal. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
A MUST-WIN GAME
Nothing like a touch of hyperbole, but this is one of those games that Gold Coast must win if they want to play finals in 2023; a big win against the Western Bulldogs needs to be backed up with a win against Adelaide.
The conditions in Darwin suit the way Gold Coast love to play, as they are a phenomenal contested ball team led by Matt Rowell who had 23 contested possessions last week to make it 158 of those for the season – it must be the grass – his form has been paramount to how Gold Coast have gone since Touk Miller got injured.
If we’re to find a knock on the Suns, it’s that Gold Coast isn’t kicking winning scores and putting enough pressure on their opposition. The Suns are ranked 12th in the competition this season, compared to 7th for the Crows.
The Suns have only gone past 100 points once this year (and that was against West Coast), but have six scores of 80 and above: that‘s where we find four of the five Gold Coast wins this season.
Josh Rachele of the Crows celebrates a goal. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images
WIN AWAY FROM HOME
Flat track-bullies is what’s coming to mind regarding Adelaide this season; only one win out of Adelaide and that was a struggle against Hawthorn in Tasmania and a quick breakdown shows how different Adelaide are away from home in 2023.
- Adelaide Oval 7 games – 5-2 – 696 points at 99.43 per game
- Away – 4 games – 1-3 – 281 points at 70.25 per game
The Crows are a five-goal inferior team away from home this season and if they play to that average, they’ll likely lose to Gold Coast on Saturday.
The Crows are averaging 376 possessions a game at Adelaide Oval vs 326 away from home, showing that their output suffers away from familiar surrounds.
To the positives and why Adelaide can win this game, the Crows are the No. 1 scoring team per-inside 50 in the competition, which will stretch the defence of the Gold Coast who are ranked 10th for points conceded.
Given the conditions, Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine will need to be at their mercurial best in the hot and steamy conditions getting to the feet of Tex Walker. Tex is also in brilliant form and kicked three last week.
Ben King of the Suns kicks the ball. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
KING TO LEAD THE SUNS TO THE PROMISE LAND
Ben King has been fantastic this season after returning from injury: 27 goals in 11 games so far has been a great return. He has been inaccurate in the last three weeks kicking 9.7 compared to 18.3 prior to that.
If he can have five or six shots on goal, Gold Coast are going to be supremely hard to beat.
THE PICK
Given the issues Adelaide have had away from home this season and that Gold Coast have had a game in the tough Darwin conditions, the lean is towards the Suns, just and that 2.5 start with TopSport is too good to ignore, given the H2H price elsewhere is $1.88.
[all odds as of June 1]
– CHECK OUT CODE BET’S AFL BETTING TIPS, PREDICTIONS AND ODDS ANALYSIS HUB HERE –