Stradbroke Handicap tips: Runner-by-runner analysis

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Queensland’s premier race the $3m Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) takes centre stage at Eagle Farm on Saturday.

The time-honoured race was first run 1890 over six furlongs (1200m), when it was won by Pyrrhus. The distance of the race was changed to seven furlongs in 1953 and in 1972 it was converted to the metric distance of 1400m.

CLICK HERE: TONY BRASSEL’S STRADBROKE HANDICAP TOP 5

The BRC Sprint has produced the last two winners of the Stradbroke Handicap – Tofane in 2021 and Alligator Blood last year.

Here is the runner-by-runner analysis of the field in the 2023 Stradbroke Handicap.

1 – ROTHFIRE

Genuine Group 1 class sprinter that was dealt a blow to his chances when drawing the outside gate, barrier 23. He ran third in this race last year with 54.5kg, rises 2.5kg to carry 57kg this year and comes into the race off a similar performance in the Kingsford Smith Cup, beaten just over a length in third. Good track and distance figures.

VERDICT: Faces a monumental task from the outside gate with topweight.

2 – SUPERSTORM

Unconventional lead-up – going first-up into a Stradbroke. Only had one start since 2021 and finished down the track in the Group 2 Australia Stakes at The Valley in January, then the horse was sold by his former owner Bob Peters. He has won first-up once previously from five starts and is one from four over 1400m. Does have the services of James Orman.

VERDICT: It would be some story but it’s unlikely.

3 – VILANA

Comes into this off a sixth placing in the Kingsford Smith Cup but a couple of rivals met him better at the weights here after beating him home. He is the winner of two from five 1400m runs and has the services of James McDonald but is he more effective on rain affected ground? On good tracks he’s 7:2-0-0, on wet tracks he’s 7:5-1-0. Forecast looks too bright for him.

VERDICT: There’s a few ahead of him on form.

4 – SCALLOPINI

There’s not too many more consistent gallopers in training than this bloke, he shows up whenever he goes to the races. Returned from a freshen up and was only collared late when a close fourth behind Surf Dancer in the BRC Sprint. He has excellent distance stats (18:8-3-1) although Eagle Farm is probably not his most preferred track 14:3-5-2. Is drawn to get a sweet run.

VERDICT: Has a rough place chance.

5 – CONVERGE

Arrives here with genuine Group 1 weight-for-age form. Was respectable in the Canterbury Stakes when never on the track back in March then later that month was a close third behind Anamoe in the George Ryder Stakes which is one of Australia’s highest rating weight-for-age races. Then failed in the Doncaster but was under a fitness cloud leading into the race and the heavy track wasn’t to his liking. Off a freshen up he an eye catching second in the Kingsford Smith Cup when trainer Adrian Bott said he wasn’t ready. Fitter, likely to get his preferred dry track and his track and distance figures are good.

VERDICT: A genuine player.

6 – SURF DANCER

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Stablemate of Converge and caused a surprise when charging home over the top of them to win the BRC Sprint. The 1400m trip is his optimum distance going off his record of 9:4-0-1 and his racing style should be suited by a strongly run handicap but there is a query over the quality of his form prior to his last start win which makes the BRC Sprint questionable. Drawn to get the right run.

VERDICT: Place prospects appear best.

7 – GENTLEMAN ROY

Returned from a short break and went back from the gate, never getting into the race when beaten almost six length in the Kingsford Smith Cup. His usual pattern is to race on speed and he’s drawn to be much closer in the run this time. He did cross the line first, before losing on protest, in the CF Orr Stakes at weight-for-age during the Melbourne autumn. Excellent 1400m figures (5:2-2-0) and at his best on good ground. Winkers are back on.

VERDICT: Capable of making sharp improvement here.

8 – ELEVEN ELEVEN

The formguide doesn’t overly excite but he loomed halfway down the straight in the Kingsford Smith Cup before his condition gave out over the final 200m. He did start favourite in this race last year and it’s well documented that he does his best racing in Queensland. The barrier draw forces him to go back and come with one run at them.

VERDICT: Expecting an improved performance but place is best.

9 – THINK ABOUT IT

The deserved favourite. At his first go at Group 1 level he sat three-wide and left his rivals without excuses when winning the Kingsford Smith Cup at weight-for-age. Now he meets anything out of that race better at the weights, he draws more favourably than the likes of Converge and Vilana and he’s undefeated over 1400m. He’s hard to knock.

VERDICT: The one they have to beat.

10 – CARDINAL GEM

Victorian galloper that headed to Queensland after contesting post-Melbourne autumn carnival stakes races where he announced himself as a progressive talent with two solid wins in Listed and Group 3 grade. Closed off stylishly in his first Brisbane run in the BRC Sprint to capture third, beaten less than a length. He has excellent 1400m figures (11:5-2-2) but remains a maiden from eight good track starts (8:0-1-1) which is concerning. Drawn to get a good run.

VERDICT: Doubt he has the class to be winning this.

11 – HOLYFIELD

Finished down the track when resuming in the Victory Stakes then was again outclassed when finishing worse than midfield in the BRC Sprint. His 1400m record (16:5-3-3) is solid but he’s yet to win in six starts at Eagle Farm and he’s had plenty of goes at stakes level with a Group 3 win his best success.

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VERDICT: Making up numbers.

12 – AFT CABIN

Classy Godolphin three-year-old that comes through the Doomben 10,000 where he finished fourth, beaten just over a length by Giga Kick. Kept up to the mark in a 1045m trial at Randwick last week and he looked the part when dominating his opponents. The query is 1400m, go back to the Hobartville in the autumn where he was found out over the latter stage. A wide gate (19) hasn’t made his task any easier.

VERDICT: Will need everything to go his way.

13 – ROYAL MERCHANT

Progressive filly that has been a model of consistency this year. Took things to a whole new level in her two most recent starts in Adelaide when winning the Group 2 Tobin Bronze Stakes before winning the Group 1 Goodwood at her most recent start. She’s yet to win in four starts at 1400m and there is a genuine query over the quality of the SA form.

VERDICT: She will find this a bridge too far.

14 – RUTHLESS DAME

High class stablemate of Royal Merchant. Went down by a cigarette paper in the Group 1 Surround Stakes during the early part of the autumn the off a let-up she proved much too good in the Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes when charging home over the top of them. The rise to 1400m should suit and the Robert Sangster form should hold up as it was a strong race on paper. Michael Dee in the saddle is another plus.

VERDICT: One of the genuine contenders.

15 – CHAIN OF LIGHTNING

She was good first-up in the Rubiton Stakes back in February then her form fell off a cliff before returning from a fresh-up where she was an eye-catching fourth behind Ruthless Dame in the Robert Sangster Stakes. She gets a 2kg weight swing to her favour over Ruthless Dame here but that’s offset somewhat after drawing barrier 18. Comes into this on the fresh side – that could be key to her chances?

VERDICT: Not without each-way claims with some luck in running.

16 – PALAISIPAN

Handy mare whose form ties in with the likes of Ruthless Dame and Chain Of Lightning through other horses but she’s coming into this off a last placing when she pulled up with a hoof injury in the Kingsford Smith Cup. At her best she’s got some strong form references over the past year.

VERDICT: At her best, she’s the best roughie in the race.

17 – TICK TOCK QUEEN

Comes out of second level form races and she hasn’t been good enough so this looks well beyond her.

VERDICT: Outclassed here.

18 – HAWAII FIVE OH

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Progressive three-year-old colt that got all the favours before taking advantage of his good fortune when winning the Fred Best Classic. It was a similar story the run prior, in easier company in the Hawkesbury Guineas. The 1400m trip is a tick, as is the dry track and the barrier.

VERDICT: Commands respects with a lightweight.

19e – ALPINE EDGE

Got too far back in the Kingsford Smith Cup before making ground while never a winning threat. That effort followed his win in The Archer at Rockhampton but that form hasn’t measured up at the top level since. His record (3:0-0-0) says 1400m is a stretch.

VERDICT: Won’t finish in the placings.

20e – OPAL RIDGE

A bit of X-factory about this NSW filly. She arrives in Brisbane on the fresh side after making the older horses look second rate in the Luskin Star Quality at Scone, a race that’s proved a strong future form pointer in recent years. She wants a good track and her turn of foot is suited to a strongly run handicap which this is likely to be. Now she just needs to get into the field.

VERDICT: Can win if she gets a run.

21e – DRAGON LEAP

Did nothing two back in the Victory Stakes then turned it around last time when dropping in class and finishing second in the BRC Sprint. Did he improve or was the BRC Sprint that much easier? Drawn to get all favours and wants a firm track.

VERDICT: He’s not up to A-grade in Australia.

22e – SINAWANN

Trialled up strongly in Sydney before resuming in the BRC Sprint and he was starting to make some ground up late after getting too far back. Kept up to the mark with a soft trial at the Sunshine Coast last week.

VERDICT: Has talent and will appreciate a strongly run race. Place best.

23e – YELLOW BRICK

Highly regarded local three-year-old that chased home Hawaii Five Oh in the Fred Best Classic. At the run prior he scored an easy win in the Gold Coast Guineas. If he does gain a start he will meet Hawaii Five Oh 1.5kg worse off from their last start clash and he has to overcome barrier 22.

VERDICT: Faces a task on a few fronts.

TIPS

1. THINK ABOUT IT (No.9)

2. HAWAII FIVE OH (No.18)

3. RUTHLESS DAME (No.14)

4. CONVERGE (No.5)

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