Saturday’s renewal of the Group 1 Queensland Derby doesn’t look to have a long tail but Chris Waller’s emerging stayer Kovalica will look announce himself as a top line three-year-old.
He’s set to take on a capacity field for the mile and a half contest with a total of 18 plus two emergencies accepting for the race on Tuesday morning
Here is our runner-by-runner analysis of every galloper set to line up.
1 – KOVALICA
Star three-year-old that performed admirably at weight-for-age last week in the Doomben Cup when third behind Huetor and Numerian. That’s by far the best formlines coming into Saturday’s Group 1 and he’s drawn to get every chance from barrier five with James McDonald on. Only query on him is if he will handle the seven-day back-up but expect Chris Waller gets him here in good order. Does look to be a future star of the staying ranks.
Verdict: Market has it spot on.
RARE AIR for HUETOR ????
The @SnowdenRacing1 import joins Earlwood, Rough Habit and Scenic Shot in winning the G1 Doomben Cup twice! ????????pic.twitter.com/uunDaD4k57
— World Horse Racing (@WHR) May 20, 2023
2 – THE VOWELS
Hard to knock this Toby and Trent Edmonds-trained galloper who is absolutely flying this campaign. Returned with a slashing win at a mile before running on to finish among the placings in the Queensland Guineas and Rough Habit Plate. He was strong at the end of 2000m last start which suggests the extra trip shouldn’t be an issue and he’s got a good record at Eagle Farm (3:2-0-1).
Verdict: Has to improve to turn tables on the favourite but in the mix.
Special Swey runs them into the ground in the Rough Habit! ????@G1TySchil take a bow. ????@cwallerracingpic.twitter.com/w0CUKGkFIW
— 7HorseRacing ???? (@7horseracing) May 13, 2023
3 – ABERFELDIE BOY
Brings solid formlines to Saturday’s classic having run third to D’aguliar and White Marlin before a strong showing in the South Australian Derby when placing behind Dunkel. That was over 2500m and he was strongest through the line so you know he’ll stay and he looks to get a good run in transit from barrier eight.
Verdict: Over the odds.
4 – PROMISES KEPT
Beat home Aberfeldie Boy in the South Australian Derby when a close second to Dunkel. Drawn barrier one and the Racenet speedmap has him settling on pace. Continues to improve and if he does so again on Saturday, Promises Kept can find his way into the finish again.
Verdict: In the mix.
DUNKEL WINS THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY! ????
FIRST GROUP 1 FOR PATRICK PAYNE & BILLY EGAN! ????@TheBeeeganpic.twitter.com/PtPvfm4zF5
— 7HorseRacing ???? (@7horseracing) May 13, 2023
5 – ANDALUS
Ex-Kiwi galloper now in the John O’Shea stable. Narrow second to Sharp ‘N’ Smart over this trip in the NZ Derby and performed OK on the heavy deck in the Australian Derby. Has been given two trials to keep him ticking over for this but has a task set for him after drawing barrier 19.
Verdict: Place chance at odds.
Spring Champion Stakes ✅
Herbie Dyke Stakes ✅
New Zealand Derby ✅
A G1 winner on both sides of the Tasman, SHARP ‘N’ SMART joined an illustrious honour roll in winning New Zealand’s biggest 3YO contest today! ????????
Australia again next? ✈️
pic.twitter.com/Kr42JHyujf— World Horse Racing (@WHR) March 4, 2023
6 – TAPILDOODLEDO
Surprise winner of the Tulloch Stakes but yet to figure in the placings since. However, his Rough Habit Plate run had merit after being trapped three-wide without cover and sticking on to run fifth behind Special Swey.
Verdict: Needs to improve.
Tapildoodledo wins the Tulloch!
Off to the Australian Derby he goes. pic.twitter.com/36OMnQlkXp
— 7HorseRacing ???? (@7horseracing) March 25, 2023
7 – WAITAK
His form has dipped with each run this preparation with the latest run finishing 11th, beaten seven lengths behind Special Swey. Barrier draw has done him no favours but his only run at the trip was one of his best when unlucky behind Sharp ‘N’ Smart in the NZ Derby.
Verdict: Seems correctly priced based on his chances.
Waitak (3 g ex Repo Bay by Shocking) storms home to take the Trevor & Corallie Eagle Memorial (Listed, 1500m), giving @RichHillStud‘s Proisir (Choisir) his 10th individual stakes winner. pic.twitter.com/vLtgbgDUNW
— ANZ Bloodstock (@anz_news) November 26, 2022
8 – SPECIAL SWEY
Surprise winner of the Rough Habit Plate when having his first run for master trainer Chris Waller. He set a strong tempo and won quite easily which holds plenty of merit. Drawn a tricky barrier so he’ll need a bit of luck but likely to roll forward and set a strong pace again. The booking of Nash Rawiller only adds confidence.
Verdict: Main danger to the favourite.
9 – STOKE OF LUCK
Flying under the radar this preparation. He was luckless in the Tulloch Stakes and then covered ground in the Australian Derby. Solid in the Rough Habit off the back of a freshen up, expect him to relish getting back up in trip and he draws to get the run of the race.
Verdict: Each-way chance.
10 – SMARTAWI
Brings a left field form reference having won the Wagga Guineas two back before a huge run last Saturday at Rosehill behind Let Me Reign. Does have a bit of upside but this is by far his toughest test to date along with travel and a seven day back up as well as barrier 18.
Verdict: Faces a task.
Smartawi and @G1TySchil take out the @mtcwagga Guineas!
Greg Hickman trains a treble. pic.twitter.com/DTGkWp5owi
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 5, 2023
11 – ARBY
Kiwi galloper that comes here after tackling the second tier of three-year-olds in New Zealand. Didn’t handle the heavy conditions last start at Pukekohe but was a strong winner of the Group 3 Manawatu Classic over 2000m the start prior.
Verdict: It would be a surprise if he were to win this.
Arby coming from last to win the Group 3 Manawatu Classic today over 2000 m for Darryn and Briar Weatherley and Sam Weatherley in the saddle.Boom sire Proisir picking up another Group winner. Fingers crossed we see him in Brisbane for the Qld Derby . pic.twitter.com/DQZBn4pA5R
— Chris Moore (@Lion_Tamer_Nz) April 1, 2023
12 – CUT ON A DIME
Has turned in two solid runs leading into this and will be looking to peak third-up out in trip. From barrier two he maps to get a soft run, midfield along the rails with Damien Thornton sticking. Still needs to find a few lengths on his Rough Habit Plate effort.
Verdict: Has to improve.
Wow! You’ll have to watch this more than once.
The 2nd highest priced So You Think ever sold breaks his maiden. 3rd career start, first-up this new prep.
Cut On A Dime (3c So You Think x Martilago)
$1mil buy for @heysy from @SegenhoeGroup at @inglis_sales Easter.@CoolmoreAuspic.twitter.com/6YcuaEZ4OT— Breednet (@BreednetNews) February 15, 2023
13 – THE ENGLISHMAN
Faces a big rise in class coming here through a Class 1 and Maiden Plate at Wyong when running second. Looks as though he’ll stay the trip and he’ll be rock hard fit coming here with three runs under his belt.
Verdict: Will need to find a few lengths up in this class.
14 – FAME
This Peter Moody-trained galloper looks to be the X-factor in the field coming off big wins at the provincials in Victoria. While he didn’t beat much in both efforts, Fame has showed the class to mix it against these type of horses having run placings behind Group 1 winners Lindermann and Dunkel early on in his career. Strong at the end of 2050m last start and a bit of confidence with Jason Collett booked.
Verdict: Best roughie in the race.
15 – XTRAREVZ
Gives the indication the extra trip will suit off the back of his grinding effort in the Rough Habit Plate. Got back that day and gradually made ground as he was working through his gears late. There’s not many better trainers of three-year-olds that stay than John Sargent and Xtrarevz looks poised to run well.
Verdict: Can sneak into the top three.
16 – SACRED MISSION
Faces a steep rise in class but has displayed toughness and consistency throughout his four starts having never finished out of the top three. Dominant on the heavy (10) at Ipswich last time out when kicking clear at the end of 2200m. Just needs to rise to this level but will stay the trip.
Verdict: Has to improve in this grade but not the worst hope.
Sacred Mission has been $51 into $34 to win Saturday’s G1 Queensland Derby. Here’s how he booked his place ????pic.twitter.com/OcQnP1vp71
— TAB (@tabcomau) May 23, 2023
17 – AMALGAMATION
Fourth to Sacred Mission at Ipswich last time out. That was on a heavy deck and he does seem to prefer a dry surface. Drawn the extreme outside and does need to improve significantly up against Group 1 company.
Verdict: Looks outclassed.
18 – TRUE BLUE
Well handled in a much easier race than what he’s up against on Saturday. Will have to improve considerably.
Verdict: This looks a bridge too far.
19e – SUBARCTIC
Looked as though he had the race won at Hawkesbury last time out before just missing. This is a steep rise in class off that effort.
Verdict: Looks outclassed.
20e – ARTFUL GIRL
The lone filly which accepted for the race on Tuesday morning. She was tough winning her maiden last start at Toowoomba so this is a big jump in class.
Verdict: Would be a surprise if she won.
MY TIPS
1 – KOVALICA
2 – SPECIAL SWEY
3 – FAME
4 – ABERFELDIE BOY