Pedigree expert Laura Joy shines a light on the breeding of some of the leading juveniles heading to Royal Ascot.
Irish aces measure up on paper
With less than 12 months to go until we begin to see what overachiever Wootton Bassett can do with one of the best broodmare bands on the planet, River Tiber is rightly fancied to show why 480,000gns were required to secure him as a yearling and remind us why dominant stallion masters Coolmore swooped to secure his sire.
There is class in River Tiber’s back pedigree and it’s current, you just have to go back to his fourth dam to find it. While you’re there, you’ll also find rival Noche Magica (Night Of Thunder).
Noche Magica is from the fourth crop of Night Of Thunder which means the last one conceived before his progeny took off and his fee jumped up to €75,000 from €25,000. Not dissimilar to Wootton Bassett whose current two-year-olds were his last to be bred in France at €40,000 a go.
River Tiber is one of those and his immediate pedigree is ultimately Listed level under the first three dams to date. He is just the second foal of racing age out of his unraced dam who is a daughter of Norwegian Listed winner Cover Girl (Common Grounds).
Cover Girl features as the grandam of G1 Phoenix Stakes winner Sudirman via her Listed level American stakes winning daughter Shermeen (Desert Style). Shermeen also boasts last year’s Listed Dee Stakes winner Star Of India (Galileo) on her record and a host of top sprinter/milers further back on the page that could potentially include Noche Magica in the future.
He is a shorter price to take up his Norfolk entry instead and whilst you’d expect 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder’s progeny to find 5f on the sharp side, this is the family of top 5f sprinter Dandy Man, and Noche Magica’s dam and grandam both won over the minimum, the latter in the G3 Molecomb Stakes.
Add to that the likes of Highfield Princess and Suesa already showing what Night Of Thunder’s progeny can do over the bare 5f, Noche Magica has the pedigree to enhance his young sire’s record even further. Anyone who follows him should have no concerns regardless of which entry he takes up – his shrewd trainer Paddy Twomey has earned a stellar reputation in Ireland in a relatively short period of time and is not associated with running horses for a day out.
Champions in Asadna family
Another trainer whose ascension is showing no signs of slowing down is George Boughey and in Asadna (Mehmas) has every chance of adding to his two Royal Ascot winners in just his fourth season of holding a licence.
The 12-length Ripon debut winner who broke the track record in the process is a shining example of Mehmas’ ability to move up his mares.
Asadna’s dam Looks Great (New Approach) was culled from Godolphin for just 10,000gns having brought 200,000gns as a yearling and failed to make the track. Each of her four foals to date have raced with all bar one winning, and Asadna looks poised to add black type to her record.
Further back on the page is an embarrassment of Group One winners including Eclipse winner Compton Admiral and QEII winner Summoner (Inchinor), both half-brothers to Asadna’s second dam Danehill Dreamer (Danehill).
Danehill Dreamer appeared the quiet branch of this illustrious pedigree before Asadna – she is also half-sister to the dam of champion and four-time Group One winner The Fugue (Dansili) and the grandam of Champion Sprint winner Limato.
Army on the march for Watson
We are well accustomed to the brilliant precocity and speed of Mehmas’ progeny and Asadna has the credentials to enhance his record further and beyond. The pedigree is there, the trainer is young and hungry and one of the best jockeys in William Buick has been secured.
Bradsell (Tasleet) was successful in the Coventry Stakes last year and the same connections team up here with impressive Ayr winner Army Ethos (Shalaa).
Young trainers need to be quick out the gates in exhibiting their talents and Archie Watson is no exception. He has become associated with sharp, early two-year-olds and Army Ethos is the latest. His Prix Morny-winning sire by Invincible Spirit has for the most part been disappointing in his second career with just 15 stakes winners from over 850 foals, but 6 of those 15 stakes winners did so as two year olds (40%).
Army Ethos’ dam has a 100% record with her three foals all scoring on the track whilst his second dam Lidanna (Nicholas) won the G3 Greenlands Stakes over 6f. It’s a fair pedigree for a race like this but some of his rivals might hold an edge and one of those might be Wesley Ward’s Fandom.
He’s a son of Showcasing, a proven source of speed, quality and precocity, out of the winning Pivotal mare Brogan. Bringing 170,000gns from Ben McElroy for Stonestreet Stables at Tattersalls Book Two, Brogan had received a timely update prior to selling when her half-sister Lezoo (Zoustar) won the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes.
Status unlikely to down without a fight
Another half-sibling Navassa Island (Territories) has subsequently added more black type to the page when second to Porta Fortuna (Caravaggio) in the G3 Naas Fillies Sprint on debut and will aim to go one place better in the G3 Albany Stakes on Friday.
Whilst this colt’s dam underachieved her siblings on the track, her mating with Showcasing now looks an inspired one considering what the family has gone on to achieve. Showcasing brings an extra touch of class and with Wesley Ward’s infectious enthusiasm and vibrant demeanour a much loved and well-established highlight of the Royal Ascot proceedings, Fandom would be a popular winner on the opening day.
Of those who have nominated the Norfolk as their confirmed target, Elite Status (Havana Grey) is a worthy favourite. Whitsbury Manor’s reigning Champion First Season Sire looks set to join his stud mate Showcasing in anchoring their roster before too long.
Whilst there is an obvious gap on his CV as he waits for his inevitable first Group One winner, it is their limitless tenacity and grit that has made his progeny so likeable. They run for you and a lot of the time; they win.
Elite Status is a prime example of that having run twice, won both and by a combined eight lengths including the Listed National Stakes (replay below). He is the first foal out of the hardy sprint handicapper Dotted Swiss (Swiss Spirit) who won 3 times and placed a further six from a whopping 24 starts.
His third dam also features as the second dam of Broome and Point Lonsdale and as far as juvenile favourites go this week, there is nothing on paper to suggest looking elsewhere here.
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Big ask so soon for Ward’s rapid Rascal?
The value of early American juvenile form is a puzzle nobody wants to solve. Such is the nature of their programme, many of the best juveniles won’t be seen until late summer/early autumn.
Therefore, judging the strength of American Rascal’s (Curlin) 10 and a half length debut success at Keeneland over 4 and a half furlongs is a task I would like to avoid. What we do know about American Rascal is that he is bred to be a very talented colt and on what we’ve seen so far, he is going the right way in fulfilling the prophecy.
His dam Lady Auriela needs no introduction – the Queen Mary and King’s Stand winner saved her best performances for Ascot and her first foal might do the same.
Whilst Lady Auriela is somewhat of a household name on both sides of the Atlantic if your household enjoys horseracing, Curlin might be less known on these shores. One of the leading sires in America, he is standing for a career high fee of $225,000 following three Breeders’ Cup winners in 2022.
We’ve touched on the different format of the American juvenile season, however just two of his twenty Grade 1 winners scored as two year olds (10%). Ok this is a Group 2 – 9 of his 53 (17%) Graded stakes winners scored at two and 23 of his 97 (24%) stakes winners did so at two.
For comparative purposes, Curlin’s main rival in America, current reigning Champion Sire Into Mischief has had 3 of his 17 Grade 1 winners (18%) win as two year olds. 13 of his 64 Graded stakes winners (20%) winning as juveniles with 42 of his 131 stakes winners (32%) doing the same.
Curlin’s progeny are noted for their propensity to find an extra leg over two turns Stateside and whether American Rascal will be ready to give his best at this early stage remains to be seen. It’s a stallion’s pedigree whatever he does but there’s a sneaky suspicion a little bit more time might benefit him before we see what he is really capable of.
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