Another bad poll result for the Indigenous Voice, but the government otherwise is seemingly maintaining its ascendancy.
The Age/Herald has a Resolve Strategic poll which finds no sign in the ongoing weakening of support for an Indigenous Voice, to the extent of being the first significant poll to find no in front, albeit by a 51-49 margin that places the difference inside the margin of error. This followed a question in which respondents were told of the referendum question wording and the fact of voting being compulsory. Minus the latter prompt, 42% were in favour, 40% opposed and 18% undecided.
State breakdowns suggest the proposal is also falling short on the other leg of the dual majority requirement, with majorities in favour in only three states: by 53-47 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Victoria and 57-43 from a tiny sample in Tasmania, with no leading 56-44 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 52-48 in South Australia. The national results are from the pollster’s latest national survey, which reached 1606 respondents and was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Sunday, while the state results pad out the sample with findings from last month’s poll, which had yes leading 53-47. Voting intention numbers will presumably follow at some point in the next day or two.
In an emerging pattern, it’s a very different story from Essential Research, which according to a report in The Guardian finds 60-40 in favour on its forced response Indigenous Voice question, effectively unchanged on its 59-41 result a month ago. A separate report in The Guardian tells us Essential’s fortnightly poll also included a regular suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which found Labor favoured to handle issues including cost of living, interest rates and government debt, together with its more traditional strengths of health and welfare, climate change and security of work.
Respondents were asked how much or how little they felt various factors were to blame for rising interest rates, but the results are hard to interpret without seeing the question wording and response structure. For this we must await the release of the full report later today – together with voting intention numbers, on which The Guardian’s report is silent, though they are presumably favourable to Labor given the “best party to handle” responses.
