Two new polls find a slight dip in support for a still dominant government and its leader.
The two polls whose Indigenous Voice results were covered in the previous post have now come through with voting intention results:
• Resolve Strategic has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition steady on 30%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be a narrowing in Labor’s lead from 61-39 to 60-40, maintaining this series’ recent record as Labor’s strongest. Personal ratings show a softening for Anthony Albanese, down three on approval to 53% and up six on disapproval to 35%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady on 48% and down one to 48%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister in from 53-20 to 53-22. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606.
• Primary votes from Essential Research, which include a 5% undecided component, have Labor down two to 32%, the Coalition up one to 32%, the Greens up one to 16% and One Nation down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor steady on 52% and the Coalition down one to 42%, with 5% undecided. Its questions on interest rates had respondents gauging the impact of six potential causes on a four-point scale, with combined responses of “a lot” or “a fair amount” coming in at 89% for inflation, 76% for pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, 75% for the federal government, 71% for Reserve Bank overreaction, 59% for the war in Ukraine and 45% for wage rises. Pessimism prevails, with 63% expecting more rate increases, 30% believing they are at their peak but will not come down for some time, with only 7% expecting them to fall soon. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1123.
