The NHL offseason is here. Let’s do some math!
We’ve put together this list for the last several years. Our methodology is cut-and-pasted as follows:
Take a team’s signed players, project what they’ll need to pay the RFAs that will make the lineup, subtract those going on LTIR and you have a solid estimate of what they can spend in unrestricted free agency to fill out their rosters.
Now, this is not an exact science. Some teams may play hardball with their restricted players and give them all cheap one-year deals; other clubs may go long, long term and that would cost more. We tried to be as reasonable as possible in coming up with projections, but we’re talking about 120-plus contract forecasts calculated in a compressed window. They’re not all going to hit the mark.
No, they won’t — but we’re trying to come as close as possible, with invaluable assists from Cap Friendly, the Evolving Hockey contract predictions, The Athletic’s staff of beat writers and elsewhere. For now, we’re projecting an $83.5 million salary cap.
Remember that this isn’t a ranking of how strong these teams are or are set up to become; we’re simply ranking how much cap space they will likely have to improve their rosters beyond players who are already under team control.
2023-24 salaries: $45,905,123
RFAs estimate: $7.56 million
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Jake McCabe retained ($2 million), Duncan Keith recapture penalty ($1.938 million), Brett Connolly buyout ($1.166 million), Henrik Borgstrom buyout ($183,334)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Jonathan Toews, Alex Stalock
Problem contract: Seth Jones
Projected cap space: $30,035,177
Last summer, the Blackhawks committed to one of the most aggressive, scorched Earth rebuilds in the NHL. It’s paid off with the No. 1 selection and tons of cap flexibility to play with.
Chicago will need to inject some forward talent for Connor Bedard to play with, so they don’t need to take other teams’ bad contracts as their way of adding $8-10 million or so to reach the salary-cap floor. That optionality should give them leverage when contenders come calling for potential salary-cap dump trades, especially in a year where there aren’t too many other rebuilding clubs struggling to reach the floor.
2023-24 salaries: $52,834,722
RFAs estimate: $3,070,600
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Jakub Vrána retention ($2.625 million), Justin Abdelkader buyout ($1.055 million)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Alex Chiasson, Adam Erne, Pius Suter, Robert Hägg, Jordan Oesterle
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $27,594,678
Steve Yzerman, should he desire, can do a whole lot more than figure out extensions for Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond, who need new deals at the end of next season. Without any priority free agents, and given where the Wings are in their rebuild, they should be in on whatever big fish become available. They’re an ideal fit for Alex DeBrincat, for example.
A big-ticket item or two-plus long-term deals for Seider and Raymond would cause the 2024-25 cap figure to jump in a hurry — but make no mistake, Yzerman has a ton of money to spend and a ton of holes to fill, last season’s step forward notwithstanding.
2023-24 salaries: $51,602,000
RFAs estimate: $8.5 million
LTIR candidates: Shea Weber, Jakub Voracek, Bryan Little
Dead money deals: Zack Kassian buyout ($1.66 million), Patrik Nemeth buyout ($166,667), Oliver Ekman-Larsson retention ($20,000)
Notable unsigned UFAs: None
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $23,398,000
Arizona’s biggest cap-related question is what kind of contract extension it’ll pursue with RFA Matias Maccelli.
Maccelli scored 49 points in 64 games as a rookie but has only one full NHL season under his belt. Is that enough for the Coyotes to try and lock him up long-term? Will both sides settle for a bridge? If Arizona tries to get some term on Maccelli’s deal, then they may not need to do anything beyond re-signing their other RFAs to exceed the salary-cap floor.
2023-24 salaries: $44,451,667
RFAs estimate: $18,918,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Kevin Shattenkirk, Anthony Stolarz, Derek Grant
Problem contract: Ryan Strome
Projected cap space: $20,130,333
Anaheim has tons of flexibility, even after you account for the RFA extensions that Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry will sign this offseason. Those RFA deals have the added bonus of helping them clear the salary-cap floor with ease.
The big question for the Ducks is how they plan on leveraging their flexibility. Last summer, Pat Verbeek was active in free agency, signing Ryan Strome, John Klingberg and Frank Vatrano.
Klingberg was a poor fit from Day 1 and Strome underwhelmed in the first season of his five-year contract. Will that make Verbeek more conservative in free agency this time? Will he try poaching sweeteners from other teams to take on bad short-term contracts?
2023-24 salaries: $59,376,917
RFAs estimate: $4,045,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Jordan Staal, Max Pacioretty, Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jesper Fast, Paul Stastny, Derek Stepan, Ondrej Kase, Mackenzie MacEachern
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $20,078,083
If the Hurricanes wanted to spend their full wad on their own UFAs, they could. Jordan Staal is a franchise icon and still a huge part of the on-ice operation. Max Pacioretty was injured (twice) before he had the opportunity to bolster the team’s goal-scoring bona fides. A host of useful forwards are on the UFA list, as are the team’s two playoff starters and Shayne Gostisbehere.
If their asks fit Carolina’s internal valuation, they’re likelier than not to return. If they don’t, the Hurricanes will have more space to make the kind of savvy additions we saw from them last season, when they capitalized on Pacioretty and Brent Burns’ availability.
2023-24 salaries: $63,291,842
RFAs estimate: $5,723,300
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Jack Johnson buyout ($916,667)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Jason Zucker, Brian Dumoulin, Danton Heinen, Josh Archibald, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bonino
Problem contract: Mikael Granlund
Projected cap space: $14,484,858
It’s easy to imagine Kyle Dubas, in his first offseason with Pittsburgh, having more money to spend than the listed number. Mikael Granlund should be a buyout candidate, and teams are entitled to walk away from RFAs.
Either way, Dubas has the room necessary to figure out his starting goaltender (whether it’s Tristan Jarry or someone else), fill out his supporting cast of forwards (Jason Zucker could be one of the better UFAs on the market) and detangle the defensive group. Building a supporting cast was a strong suit for Dubas in Toronto, and he’ll have an opportunity to do the same with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and company.
2023-24 salaries: $69,040,237
RFAs estimate: $2,960,200
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Vinnie Hinostroza
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $11,499,563
The Sabres might be the biggest variable on the market. If they want to add to one of the most intriguing young rosters in the league and make a real “all-in” type of run at the postseason, they have the ammo. Good as 21-year-old goalie Devon Levi was in his first NHL look, Buffalo has been connected with veteran starters like Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson for a reason.
Another potential issue for the Sabres this offseason: extending Rasmus Dahlin, who has one more season left at $6 million AAV and emerged last season as a legitimate No. 1 defenseman. With fellow cornerstones Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens signed through 2030, expect it to get done.
2023-24 salaries: $70,925,000
RFAs estimate: $7,373,000
LTIR candidates: Gabriel Landeskog
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: J.T. Compher, Evan Rodrigues, Erik Johnson, Andrew Cogliano, Darren Helm, Lars Eller
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $12,202,000
Colorado’s in such an intriguing cap situation.
Gabriel Landeskog will miss the entire 2023-24 season which means his $7 million AAV can be stashed on LTIR, freeing up some critical money. Do you make moves this summer assuming Landeskog will eventually return in 2024-25? If that’s the case, you’d have to plan on his cap hit landing back on the books, meaning you’d prefer to add big salaried players with just one year of term remaining. On the other hand, there’s no guarantee that Landeskog will even be back in 2024-25, so do you decide to spend that LTIR money as if you’ll have it long-term, knowing you can deal with the situation next offseason?
Bowen Byram will also be an interesting RFA negotiation — what kind of money and term do you offer a player who is so promising but prone to injuries?
Either way, the Avs have some short-term money to play with this summer, which should be deployed to upgrade their middle-six scoring.
2023-24 salaries: $66,424,047
RFAs estimate: $6,100,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Matt Murray retention ($1.5625 million)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Travis Hamonic, Cam Talbot, Derick Brassard, Patrick Brown, Auston Watson, Nick Holden
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $10,975,953
In most other instances, we should assume that a team will sign its RFAs — but what’s gone on with the Sens and Alex DeBrincat is not most other instances. In this projection, he’s on someone else’s roster. The trade winds have gotten too strong to ignore.
Now, if that changes, the Sens could have more than that $11 million in projected space to work with, especially if they pass on qualifying offers for another RFA or two. They also, though, need to figure out the identity of their starting goaltender. That, plus the haziness surrounding DeBrincat, are two big questions for an up-and-coming team.
2023-24 salaries: $77,055,417
RFAs estimate: $2,268,000
LTIR candidates: Tanner Pearson, Tucker Poolman
Dead money deals: Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout ($146,667)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Kyle Burroughs
Problem contract: Tyler Myers
Projected cap space: $9,926,583
Vancouver’s inability to move contracts resulted in them executing one of the biggest buyouts in NHL history on Oliver Ekman-Larsson. The immediate $7.1 million in savings that the buyout creates is significant and necessary for a team with clear playoff ambitions and needs to address on the back end and at third-line centre.
Ethan Bear, an RFA, is expected to be out for six months after shoulder surgery, so won’t be ready to play until around mid-December. The Canucks probably won’t take the risk of qualifying him at $2.2 million, so we aren’t including that figure in this cap projection. It still makes sense for Vancouver to try and work out a one-year extension with Bear, but it needs to be at a reduced rate considering the injury risk.
Overall, the Canucks are positioned with just shy of $10 million to spend. Vancouver could still shop contracts like Conor Garland to carve out more room, but for now, they have room for at least one legitimately impactful addition mixed with some depth upgrades.
2023-24 salaries: $74,356,450
RFAs estimate: $5,178,000
LTIR candidates: Jake Muzzin ($5.625 million)
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting, Alexander Kerfoot, Luke Schenn, Justin Holl, Erik Gustafsson, Noel Acciari, Zach Aston-Reese, David Kämpf, Wayne Simmonds
Problem contract: Matt Murray
Projected cap space: $9,590,550
There’s not enough space to get into the various questions surrounding the Maple Leafs’ offseason, but we’ll focus on some of the biggest. Evolving Hockey projects RFA starting goalie Ilya Samsonov to sign a four-year contract worth more than $5 million annually. That’d make parting ways with Matt Murray during the buyout window even more understandable.
A deal like that, combined with Jake Muzzin’s LTIR relief, would still leave the Leafs with about $9 million next season to either retain some of their many roster UFAs or find new ones on the open market. They’ve got a lot of projected space and even more necessary work to do … and we didn’t even mention Auston Matthews’ next contract.
2023-24 salaries: $69,420,834
RFAs estimate: $4,943,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Martin Jones buyout ($2.916 million), Brent Burns retention ($2.72 million), Rudolfs Balcers buyout ($308,334)
Notable unsigned UFAs: James Reimer
Problem contract: Marc-Eduoard Vlasic
Projected cap space: $9,136,166
San Jose’s daunting medium-term challenge is that they have a lot of money tied into expensive veterans on risky contracts.
Tomas Hertl (29 with seven years left), Logan Couture (34 with four years left), Erik Karlsson (33 with four years left) and Marc-Eduoard Vlasic (36 with three years left) are locked up long-term and cumulatively take up more than 40 percent of the salary cap’s upper limit. That’s why the Sharks should be as motivated as possible to sell high on Erik Karlsson, even if it likely means retaining some salary.
Moving Karlsson would open up a big chunk of cap space, but the Sharks have at least some flexibility regardless. San Jose’s not contending anytime soon so GM Mike Grier should be thinking of creative ways to leverage his remaining cap room to stockpile draft picks, prospects and young players.
2023-24 salaries: $70,507,857
RFAs estimate: $4,447,300
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Sam Gagner, David Rittich
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $8,544,843
The Jets should end up with significantly more money at their disposal than it looks on the surface, even though we’ve already accounted for a Pierre-Luc Dubois trade in this cap projection rather than an extension.
Connor Hellebuyck is expected to be on the move which would clear $6.166 million off the books, Mark Scheifele could be dealt since he’s also a year away from free agency and Blake Wheeler’s days in Winnipeg appear numbered, too.
Winnipeg could end up with just north of $25 million in cap room if all those players are dealt, even if you assume a potential Wheeler trade would require retention. Of course, the Jets could use that money to take contracts back in any trades for those core players if they feel it would juice their return or perhaps if they’re even looking for immediate NHL talent.
After that, it’ll be really fascinating to see what the Jets do. Will they take the assets and cap space from those potential trades to aggressively target established NHL talent to help them now? Or will they stay patient and take a longer-term view of turning the team around?
2023-24 salaries: $73,237,501
RFAs estimate: $1,980,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Keith Yandle buyout ($1,241,667)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Eric Staal, Radko Gudas, Marc Staal, Alex Lyon
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $8,282,499
One of the forgotten elements of the Panthers’ Cup Final run is that it came in a season that, by some measures, had been used as a reset button. Panthers GM Bill Zito had to fill out his roster with cheap options like the Staal brothers and use LTIR for day-to-day maneuvering.
Now, with Patric Hornqvist’s contract coming off the books, Zito has room to work with, assuming he wants to meaningfully improve the bottom six and defensive group on his conference-champion roster. Here’s betting he will, especially if Aaron Ekblad’s and Brandon Montour’s injuries last well into the regular season. It’s still too early to slot those two as LTIR candidates, but they may wind up as such.
2023-24 salaries: $67,955,309
RFAs estimate: $8.2 million
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Kyle Turris buyout ($2 million), Mattias Ekholm retention ($250,000)
Notable unsigned UFAs: None
Problem contract: Ryan Johansen
Projected cap space: $7,344,691
Barry Trotz has inherited some overpriced veteran contracts in Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene and Ryan McDonagh, who make a combined $22.75 million. The Predators did excellent work at the trade deadline to chip away at their expensive veteran commitments by shipping out Mattias Ekholm (a good player on a fair contract) and Mikael Granlund (a mediocre player on a bad contract), which cleared up a combined $11.25 million.
Those trades give Nashville the flexibility to make some moves this summer. Trotz has acknowledged that the club may need to take a step back for the next year or two in order to eventually take a bunch of steps forward, so it’ll be fascinating to see what that vision entails and how their cap room could play a role in that.
2023-24 salaries: $84,759,166
RFAs estimate: $2.4 million
LTIR candidates: Carey Price ($10.5 million)
Dead money deals: Karl Alzner buyout ($833,333)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Jonathan Drouin, Chris Tierney, Alex Belzile
Problem contract: Brendan Gallagher
Projected cap space: $6,840,834
The Canadiens’ offseason cap number is going to be ugly until Carey Price’s contract comes off the books in the summer of 2026. In the meantime, though, things could be worse; the franchise makes more than enough money to cover the contract, and their young core (Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach, Juraj Slafkovsky, Arber Xhekaj) is either under control for the duration or close to it.
In the meantime, GM Kent Hughes has enough space to retain Denis Gurianov (should he wish) and add a piece elsewhere. Trying to win some games in 2023-24 might not be a bad idea.
2023-24 salaries: $80,037,484
RFAs estimate: $1,962,000
LTIR candidates: Robin Lehner
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Adin Hill, Ivan Barbashev, Teddy Blueger, Phil Kessel, Laurent Brossoit, Jonathan Quick
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $6,500,516
The Stanley Cup champions aren’t nearly as crunched as they were last summer, when they had a ton of important RFAs to re-sign, barely any room and were forced to dump Pacioretty for free. Vegas’ decisions this offseason will come down to its UFAs, including Adin Hill and Ivan Barbashev who were both essential to the Cup win.
The biggest uncertainty is Robin Lehner’s future. Lehner, who has two years left at a $5 million AAV, was stashed on LTIR all year following surgery on both hips. Can he stay on LTIR next season? General manager Kelly McCrimmon said Lehner’s status is unclear. If he is healthy, would Vegas consider buying him out to carve out $4.25 million in space that could go toward keeping Hill and Barbashev?
Either way, solving the situation between the pipes, especially with Laurent Brossoit and Jonathan Quick also becoming UFAs, will be Vegas’ top priority this summer.
2023-24 salaries: $57,092,500
RFAs estimate: $20,197,400
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Cory Schneider buyout ($2 million), Janne Kuokkanen buyout ($325,000), Ilya Kovalchuk recapture penalty ($250,000)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar, Miles Wood, Ryan Graves, Jonathan Bernier
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $6,210,100
No team had more work to do with its RFAs than the Devils. With Jesper Bratt already signed, Timo Meier seems to be up next. Here, we’re assuming they agree on an eight-year, $8.7 million AAV deal. There are certainly other possibilities, though the Devils filing for arbitration earlier this month makes a long-term deal more likely. Also, the overall RFA bill assumes that MacKenzie Blackwood leaves and players like Yegor Sharangovich are retained. The latter, especially if Meier signs, could change.
The takeaway here should be clear, though; the Devils can retain nearly all of their RFAs and still have money to retain players like Erik Haula and Ryan Graves or look to the market for replacements. Not bad.
2023-24 salaries: $76,698,524
RFAs estimate: $6,887,000
LTIR candidates: Ryan Ellis ($6.25 million)
Dead money deals: Oskar Lindblom buyout ($666,667)
Notable unsigned UFAs: James van Riemsdyk, Brendan Lemieux
Problem contract: Kevin Hayes
Projected cap space: $6,164,476
If nothing else, Flyers fans can feel good about starting an offseason in which they don’t have to worry about their front office throwing money around. New GM Daniel Briere has made it clear: He’s rebuilding.
Fitting in his team’s RFAs won’t be a problem, especially when we factor in Ryan Ellis’ likely trip to LTIR. Briere’s biggest task will be continuing to clear payroll. Maybe he can find takers for Kevin Hayes or Rasmus Ristolainen somewhere else on this list. If not, he can continue using his available space to buy picks, as he did in the Ivan Provorov trade.
2023-24 salaries: $76,105,329
RFAs estimate: $1,549,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Max Domi, Evgeni Dadonov, Joel Kiviranta, Luke Glendening, Joel Hanley
Problem contract: Tyler Seguin, Ryan Suter
Projected cap space: $5,845,671
The Stars only have nine forwards on the roster after you assume RFA Ty Dellandrea extends, so their roughly $6 million in space will be gobbled up quickly. Dallas could carve out an extra $2.866 million by buying out Ryan Suter, who’s declining. That would allow them to explore some impactful names but a Suter buyout is far from a guarantee.
Ideally, the Stars would be able to upgrade their top four, but there isn’t a whole lot of cap flexibility left over after you fill out the necessary forward holes.
Dallas will most likely look to make some savvy depth acquisitions while banking on younger names like Thomas Harley, Nils Lundkvist, Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque taking the next step as the path for improvement in 2023-24.
2023-24 salaries: $75,993,333
RFAs estimate: $2,032,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Thomas Greiss, Josh Leivo
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $5,474,667
St. Louis already used some of its cap space to acquire talent for free at the trade deadline. The Blues took Jakub Vrána from Detroit at a reduced $2.625 million AAV and picked up Kasperi Kapanen’s $3.2 million cap hit from waivers. Both players offered genuine promise down the stretch, with Vrána scoring 10 goals and four assists in 20 games in St. Louis, while Kapanen notched eight goals and six assists in 23 games.
Right now, the Blues have space to acquire one high-end player this summer. GM Doug Armstrong has the assets to make something bold happen too, as he owns two extra first-round picks this year.
St. Louis will presumably work hard to move one of its overpriced defense contracts (Torey Krug, Nick Leddy or Marco Scandella) to create more wiggle room, but it’d be a surprise if there was a taker.
2023-24 salaries: $63,156,576
RFAs estimate: $15,802,500
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Chris Driedger buried ($2.35 million)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Ryan Donato, Carson Soucy, Martin Jones
Problem contract: Philipp Grubauer
Projected cap space: $4,540,924
Seattle has important RFA extensions to work out with Vince Dunn, Daniel Sprong, Will Borgen and Morgan Geekie. That will eat a big chunk of the club’s cap flexibility, but they still have wiggle room to play with. Buying out goaltender Chris Driedger would open up an extra $3 million — that seems like a plausible consideration if there aren’t any potential trade partners.
The Kraken don’t have any glaring holes other than a backup goalie once they’ve extended their RFAs, and they have three second-round picks this year, so they have the financial and asset surplus to target an impact player.
2023-24 salaries: $76,186,667
RFAs estimate: $2,822,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Connor Brown, Conor Sheary, Craig Smith, Carl Hagelin
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $4,491,333
The Caps are in a better spot than their cap ledger indicates, given the draft assets GM Brian MacLellan added at the deadline by sending out pending UFAs like Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway who weren’t going to work as long-term options for a cap-conscious team.
Now, MacLellan can focus on figuring out a longer-term deal for young RFA defenseman Martin Fehérváry, extending Rasmus Sandin and adding a depth forward or two. It isn’t the ideal group to surround Alex Ovechkin with during his push for the all-time goal mark, but MacLellan is still managing to walk the line.
2023-24 salaries: $77,645,833
RFAs estimate: $2,252,100
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Alexander Wennberg buyout ($891,667)
Notable unsigned UFAs: None
Problem contract: Erik Gudbranson
Projected cap space: $3,602,067
Quibble with what GM Jarmo Kekalainen has done this offseason if you wish — spending big on Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov is certainly one way to deal with a terrible defensive group. Whatever it amounts to, though, his work seems to be largely complete.
If he wishes to add a depth piece or two once the market opens, he can, but there are no more pressing issues facing the Blue Jackets. Time to see how it all works out for one of the league’s oddest win-now rosters.
2023-24 salaries: $71,737,083
RFAs estimate: $8,923,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Motte, Niko Mikkola, Jaroslav Halak
Problem contract: Barclay Goodrow
Projected cap space: $2,839,917
If Rangers GM Chris Drury wants to lock up K’Andre Miller long-term — and Evolving Hockey, at least, is projecting as much with a seven-year, $6.2 AAV deal — it’ll seriously hamper his available cap space for the summer. If he doesn’t? He won’t have locked up K’Andre Miller long-term. Tough choice.
And either way, finding routes to improve the roster — given the amount of money tied up in players with several years remaining — will be a challenge. Kane’s offseason hip surgery may allow Drury to delay that particular decision, but it’s tough to imagine anything more than work around the margins this summer unless a big contract is moved out.
26. New York Islanders
2023-24 salaries: $78,963,333
RFAs estimate: $2,108,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Scott Mayfield, Semyon Varlamov, Zach Parise, Pierre Engvall
Problem contract: Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Projected cap space: $2,428,667
Assuming the Islanders take care of business with Oliver Wahlstrom — Evolving Hockey has him signing for two years and a bit over $2 million annually — they’ll still have to deal with a crunch when it comes to filling out the roster. Scott Mayfield, as a big, 30-year-old right shot with a track record, will be one of the market’s more in-demand players.
The big-picture issue for the Isles’ offseason, given the money they’ve committed to their top players, is how they’re supposed to improve on a roster that nearly missed the playoffs and then was eliminated in the first round.
2023-24 salaries: $83,050,000
RFAs estimate: $5,456,000
LTIR candidates: Brent Seabrook ($6.875 million)
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Alex Killorn, Corey Perry, Ian Cole, Pierre-Édouard Bellemare, Brian Elliott
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $1,869,000
It’s everyone’s favorite offseason tradition: How are the Tampa Bay Lightning going to win the math game? They’ve done it more often than not. Last year was about committing to new core pieces like Mikhail Sergachev and Anthony Cirelli while saying goodbye to Ryan McDonagh. This season, the tough choices may include RFA Ross Colton and UFA Alex Killorn.
Our number includes new deals for Colton and Tanner Jeannot; the latter isn’t going anywhere, given the cost to acquire him from Nashville. The problem is that Tampa Bay would still only have 10 forwards signed with less than $2 million in space modeled here, meaning somebody like Colton could be on the move to flesh out the roster.
2023-24 salaries: $82,250,000
RFAs estimate: None
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Kevin Rooney buried penalty ($150,000)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Troy Stecher, Nick Ritchie, Milan Lucic, Trevor Lewis, Michael Stone
Problem contract: Jacob Markstrom, Jonathan Huberdeau
Projected cap space: $1,250,000
Calgary has all of its important players signed for next season and is nearly capped out. Star goalie prospect Dustin Wolf looks ready to graduate to the NHL so that makes Dan Vladar and his $2.2 million cap hit a movable contract. But besides that, you’d usually look at a cap sheet like this and assume there won’t be much activity beyond a depth signing here or there.
The Flames will likely be forced into making substantial changes, however.
Elias Lindh0lm, Tyler Toffoli, Noah Hanifin, Mikael Backlund, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov are all UFAs at the end of next season. Calgary can’t afford to lose high-end talent for nothing, so that means general manager Craig Conroy needs to figure out who’s willing to stay long-term, and potentially ship out the players that aren’t.
Noah Hanifin, for example, is already expected to be traded.
Calgary’s cap situation is way more fluid than it looks right now, as Conroy will have some money and assets at his disposal if he’s forced to trade players like Hanifin.
2023-24 salaries: $76,163,334
RFAs estimate: $6,940,700
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Ivan Provorov retention ($2.025 million), Mike Richards termination penalty ($700,000)
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $395,966
L.A.’s clever work to dump Cal Petersen’s and Sean Walker’s contracts as part of the three-way deal for Ivan Provorov cleared much-needed space. Yes, it was expensive, costing a second-round pick and Helge Grans, but there’s no easy way the Kings could have afforded Vladislav Gavrikov’s two-year extension without it.
Gabriel Vilardi’s breakout campaign puts him in line for a substantial raise as an RFA. The Kings will be pressed right up against the cap when you combine Vilardi’s new deal with the escalating price of Mikey Anderson and Trevor Moore’s long-term extensions kicking in.
Los Angeles’ tight cap makes the fit of a potential Pierre-Luc Dubois trade challenging. The Kings have players like Viktor Arvidsson, Alex Iafallo or Sean Durzi whom they can shop to manufacture more space, but the point is that any big acquisition from this point onward will require creativity and many moving parts.
2023-24 salaries: $74,418,588
RFAs estimate: $9,229,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Zach Parise buyout ($7.371 million), Ryan Suter buyout ($7.371 million)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Matt Dumba, Gustav Nyquist, Ryan Reaves, John Klingberg
Problem contract: None
Projected cap space: $-147,588
Minnesota’s completely capped out once you factor in its potential RFA deals, led by breakout goaltender Filip Gustavsson. The Wild could choose not to qualify an RFA like Sam Steel or trade Calen Addison to create a little bit of breathing room, but any way you slice it, they’re heavily restricted by their cap limitations. That’s the unfortunate consequence of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s combined $14.742 million dead cap charge.
Alex Goligoski’s in the final year of his $2 million contract and only suited up for 42 games. Could the Wild convince Goligoski to waive his no-movement clause and create some space via trade?
Ultimately, Minnesota can’t bank on external additions making a difference next season; the improvement has to come from within from prospects like Marco Rossi.
2023-24 salaries: $78,562,500
RFAs estimate: $6,439,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: None
Notable unsigned UFAs: Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Dmitry Orlov, Tyler Bertuzzi, Garnet Hathaway, Nick Foligno, Tomas Nosek, Connor Clifton
Problem contract: Derek Forbort
Projected cap space: -$1,501,500
Is the number as ugly as you’d expected? Here, we’re anticipating an AAV of more than $4 million for RFA Jeremy Swayman and a new deal for Trent Frederic. Those would put the Bruins over the cap before figuring out what happens with their iconic first-line center and the guy who plays directly behind him.
What Don Sweeney does to deal with this — or simply fill out a half-decent four lines — is anyone’s guess. What seems certain, though, is that paying more than $9 million combined for Swayman and Linus Ullmark isn’t a fit, and neither is carrying $3 million, bottom-pair defensemen.
2023-24 salaries: $78,430,000
RFAs estimate: $8,694,000
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: James Neal buyout ($1.916 million)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Nick Bjugstad, Mattias Janmark
Problem contract: Jack Campbell
Projected cap space: $-3,624,000
The Oilers need to ship money out just to keep the roster intact, let alone improve.
Kailer Yamamoto is the most obvious candidate to depart, as his $3.1 million cap hit is a luxury. That contract won’t be too hard to wriggle out of — a rebuilding team could easily want to take a flier on a 24-year-old who’s only a year removed from scoring 20 goals — and if that fails, a buyout would create $2.66 million in cap space, with only a $533,334 dead cap penalty for 2024-25. Warren Foegele, who’s entering the final year of his deal at $2.75 million, could be a candidate to move as well.
Evolving Hockey projected a six-year extension for Evan Bouchard at a $5.358 million AAV, but Edmonton’s dire financial situation means the club might only be able to afford a cheaper bridge deal. That could hurt them down the road if Bouchard takes over PP1 duties full-time, racks up a ton of points and suddenly demands top dollars.
The Oilers aren’t going to lose any overly important pieces because of this cap crunch, but it will make the task of improving the roster this summer complicated and challenging.
(Top photo of Seth Jones celebrating a goal with the Blackhawks: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)