Going with horses having Saturday credentials that go forward and stay out of trouble served us well last week.
With the rail out seven metres and fields of similar depth we will take the same approach and trust lightning to strike twice.
BEST BET: RICHON (Race 6 No.1)
NEXT BEST: THELWELL (Race 4 No.1)
VALUE BET: WEGOBAM (Race 8 No.12)
Quaddie numbers are:
Race 5: 6,8,9,12
Race 6: 1,4,5
Race 7: 1,6,13
Race 8: 4,9,12
108 combinations
Race 1 – Maiden Plate 1200m
A positive ride might be enough for BRAND NEW (7) which brings solid Victorian form and the Kelly Schweida/Jim Orman combination can never be ignored. Longer would be better but he has speed and with two trials under his belt can test these.
LANDSBOROUGH LAD (4) has placed at nine of 10 but just doesn’t want to win. David Vandyke has put the blinkers on and with a strong rider in Martin Harley, will pray that does the trick.
KAI TAK (11) does plenty wrong and bucked after the start last outing costing herself dearly yet ran on to beat all but the impressive Emperor. Now having her second start for Jack Bruce, she has been a problem child but is a sister to a Group 1 winner and there is some ability there.
COUNTER COMMAND (3) had support at the Sunshine Coast when resuming but found trouble and only got clear late. This longer trip suits and a positive ride puts him in contention.
Verdict- LANDSBOROUGH LAD (4) way overdue but I am on BRAND NEW (7).
Race 2 – Three-Year-Old Maiden Plate 1350m
Some promising ones up against a few that have been finding it hard to break through. One with some upside is LOVE TONIGHT (7) which came from a wide gate and hit the line well on debut at the Sunshine Coast. She is better drawn here, drops 1.5kg and Kyle Wilson-Taylor can take advantage of a good gate.
OWN TOMORROW (8) hasn’t done much wrong at her two outings and will appreciate the rise in distance. A good gate helps and Ben Thompson will give her every chance.
CALDANTE (1) is a professional placegetter and gave them a big start at Sunshine Coast last outing when coming from a wide gate. He is better drawn here, Angela Jones replaces Jake Bayliss and a positive ride can make a difference.
GURU CLASS (6) is another that has had his chances but endured a similar run to CALDANTE (1) last start and beat him home. A tough gate tests but he beat all but the winner over this trip two starts back and can figure again.
Verdict- Not much between the top two picks, going with LOVE TONIGHT (7).
Race 3 – Fillies and Mares Class 1 Handicap 1110m
A big field and with the rail out gates and gate speed are important. ON HOLD (12) was tried over 1400m last start but raced too keenly and faded out. She has trialled since and David Vandyke has gone back to his old pal Ryan Maloney. This trip is more suitable and from a good gate a positive ride can get the job done.
IDONEUS (11) goes very fast and has been readied by two trials. The trip is a question mark but with Cejay Graham’s 3kg claim can give them something to chase.
SAWEETIE (7) was racing in far stronger company than this last preparation. She has drawn the carpark but Ben Thompson could charge forward and make his own luck
CICCONE (2) used the rail to advantage and got the Maiden out of the way here last week. She is backing up quickly with 1.5kg more in higher class but is a promising sort and Jim Orman will have her near the speed throughout.
Verdict- ON HOLD (12) maps well in a tricky affair.
Race 4 – Colts, Geldings and Entires Class 1 Handicap 1110m
Saturday form is hard to pass and THELWELL (1) was far from disgraced when resuming in the Darby McCarthy Plate. He has only won one race but has placed three times at black-type level and with Jake Molloy’s 3kg claim if there’s a will there’s a way.
EMPEROR (2) was dominant when winning his Maiden here but has the dreaded trifecta of being up in class, weight and distance. Damien Thornton stays on and from the good gate will give them something to chase.
WARBY (5) is having his first start for Tony Gollan and brings some solid Southern form. He had veterinary excuses last start, has trialled since and while longer would be better will get every chance with Jim Orman.
The stablemate GREAT ASPIRATIONS (11) wasn’t helped by a wide run on a heavy track at the Sunshine Coast. He is awkwardly drawn again but has improvement and if Ryan Maloney can find a spot will hit the line.
Verdict- THELWELL (1) for me.
Race 5 – Benchmark 70 Handicap 2040m
Chris Waller brings them North to get a win and CARBONETTI (9) was unfortunate to run into a smart one in Fawkner Park last start but did beat the rest. He is one-paced but Jim Orman stays on and will have him close enough if good enough.
CHAYSE ‘N’ ARTIE (12) placed behind Amokura two starts back over 1800m at the Sunshine Coast and this trip may be what he is looking for. He drops 3.5kg and with Sean Cormack he has the speed to take a position.
INUWASHI (8) finished on terms with CARBONETTI (9) last start. He is another that is taking his time to break through but this trip suits and with the right tempo he can run over the top of them.
The other Waller runner CHERNAK (6) destroyed them at Ipswich last start to record his first win since arrival. This is much harder but he drops 2kg and his French form is up to this level.
Verdict- CARBONETTI (9) gets his chance.
Race 6 – Class 4 Handicap 1050m
A strong Class 4 but going with RICHON (1) which found the pressure too much in the Darby McCarthy but accounted for a Saturday Class 6 field at his start prior. He gets blinkers and with a 3kg claim for Jake Molloy that form is more than good enough for this.
COCO ROX (4) is resuming after failing to win last preparation but was racing in much higher class than this. She has a good first-up record, the benefit of a trial and won her only previous start here over this trip. With Cejay Graham’s 3kg claim she will be prominent for a long way.
AMITY GAL (5) disappointed here last start but may have had veterinary excuses. She gave RICHON (1) too much start at Eagle Farm two starts back but is better drawn here and will get a positive ride from Kyle Wilson-Taylor.
Several of these met in a Class 4 Plate three weeks back and while INASEC (12) went down narrowly to the stablemate MUSCHIALLI (2) she meets her conqueror 3kg better and can turn the tables.
Verdict- RICHON (1) has form and fitness,
Race 7 – Benchmark 65 Handicap 1640m
Kurt Goldman places his horses well and ARTS OBJECT (13) looked sharp in a recent Beaudesert trial. She found The Roses too far but placed in the Wagga Guineas at her previous start and with a positive ride from Angela Jones will be hard to beat.
A CALL FROM HEAVEN (1) was ridden off the speed in a similar event last start and faded late. She is better when allowed to control the race and a more positive ride by Cejay Graham can deliver a result.
ASWAAT (6) has been finding some form and just missed to PICK ZA BEANS (9) last start. She gets back but with Mark Du Plessis will be hitting the line.
MISHANI MISSILE (2) is fitter for two outings, has won third-up previously and is suited this class and distance. He gives them a start but Ben Thompson stays on and will have him close enough to fire.
Verdict- ARTS OBJECT (13) hard to hold out.
Race 8 – Benchmark 70 Handicap 1350m
Hard to go past a mare in form and WEGOBAM (12) ran on well to beat subsequent winner Crazy Train at Ipswich. This trip suits and she hasn’t put in a bad run since joining Jack Bruce. Samantha Collett stays on and from gate four will get every chance.
ENABLER (9) did things wrong last week but showed improvement to place behind the in-form Hatchet. He will strip fitter, drops 1kg and from gate one will get all the favours.
BILLY’S BRO (4) got the job done when a short-priced favourite at Ipswich. He steps up in trip and is poorly drawn but has enough speed for Michael Cahill to take luck out of the equation.
VICTORY BAY (6) brings Victorian form, has a good first-up record and has benefited from two trials. The gate tests but Kelly Schweida doesn’t put Jim Orman on for nothing.
Verdict- WEGOBAM (12) can do just that.