AT the end of last year, the Australian National University in partnership with Griffith University released ‘The 2022 Australian Federal Election’.
The document reported on the results of a survey of 2,508 nationally representative voters to understand what shaped their voting choices.
Known as the Australian Election Study, it has been undertaken following every federal election since 1987.
The AES is a treasure trove of insights into the minds of voters and its longitudinal nature shows trends over time.
I’ve been voting in federal elections since 1983 and have a keen interest in politics and policy.
As such, I am motivated to understand the psyche of the average Australian voter.
The results of the 2022 AES are both interesting and enlightening.
Policy
Fewer people (53 per cent) voted on policy issues than previously (66 per cent).
To those that policies mattered, top of mind were cost of living (32 per cent), environmental issues (17 per cent comprised global warming and environment), management of the economy (15 per cent) and health 14 per cent (Medicare 10 per cent and the pandemic).
According to those surveyed, Labor’s credentials were in the policy areas of cost of living, education, health and the environment with the Coalition favoured in terms of managing the economy, taxation and national security.
Partisanship
Voters who always vote for the same party, no matter what, fell to a record low of 37 per cent.
The report’s authors surmised that “a growing detachment from the major political parties provided the conditions that supported the teals’ success”.
Interestingly, the report adds that most teal voters were not “disaffected Liberals” (18 per cent) but “tactical Labor and Greens voters” (55 per cent) who are more “ideologically close to Labor voters placing themselves just left of centre”.
Shifts
The Coalition lost ground overall, including those voters who are university educated and/or higher income earners.
However, men in this grouping support the Coalition in larger numbers than women (38 per cent versus 32 per cent) and women are more likely to support Labor and the Greens (52 per cent versus 41 per cent).
Additionally, the Coalition fared poorly in almost all age groups, but especially with millennials and generation Z at about 25 per cent of voters under the age of 40.
Leader popularity
Anthony Albanese scored 5.3 out of 10 in terms of popularity, the most favourable of any party leader since Kevin Rudd with Scott Morrison scoring 3.8, a result that made him the least popular leader since the AES commenced.
Leader characteristics
When ranking the characteristics of the major party leaders, Mr Albanese outranked Mr Morrison on the following indicators: compassionate, sensible, honest, competent, trustworthy, strong leadership and inspiring, and just outflanked him in terms of intelligent.
Mr Morrison led in a single area: knowledge.
Trust
The report provides an insight into our degree of trust in democracy (70 per cent) and government (30 per cent), with a noteworthy footnote that “Just 12 per cent of people believe that government is run for all the people”.
The above is evidence that we have moved into a political era characterised by shades of grey.
However, I was pleased to see a single constant over the past three elections in that 80 per cent of Australian voters support recognition for Indigenous Australians in the Constitution, which should augur well for the upcoming referendum on the Voice to Parliament.
The 2022 election was held against a backdrop of a global pandemic with cost of living the most concerning of the policy areas for voters.
ach election has its own context, but what is clear from the 2022 study is that fewer voters are predictable and, in marketing parlance, best described as highly segmented.
There is an increasing chasm between males and females, younger and older voters, and the average versus highly educated to name but a few of the dividing lines.
This means that parties and their campaigners have a significant challenge ahead in that they need to continue to speak to their heartland at the same time as appeal to the growing undecided.
They need to be dexterous and credible enough to stick to party lines at the same time as meeting the expectations of their electorate and addressing the inevitable twists and turns that are hallmarks of any campaign.
All of which makes for a dynamic environment for the next federal election in 2025.
• Marion Fulker is an adjunct associate professor at UWA and was the inaugural CEO of the Committee for Perth.