Cap space is tight, there are important contractual decisions to be made and there’s just a little more than a month until free agency. Oilers GM Ken Holland has a fair bit on his plate and not much time to figure it all out.
Well, this 10-step guide could be a handy-dandy resource. All Holland must do is consider this carefully and things will absolutely, positively turn out perfectly. (OK, that’s not a guarantee.)
Organized not necessarily in terms of importance but rather as the hockey calendar dictates, here are the 10 things Holland should do within the next few weeks.
1. Determine the ideal offer for Bouchard — and make it
Getting Evan Bouchard re-signed should be the top priority without question.
Any concerns were erased about him being a top-four defenceman or a legitimate first-unit power-play quarterback based on his work from March through Game 6 against the Golden Knights. The Oilers slow-played Bouchard for years. His time is now.
The problem is that the Oilers don’t have a ton of cap space — at least not at this very moment or unless the ceiling rises by more than the originally projected amount of $1 million. They have 16 or 17 players signed, depending on how you count waivers-eligible Markus Niemelainen, and have roughly $6 million in room.
As a result, a bridge contract for Bouchard is the most likely scenario. That might be the best play for the Oilers because their best chance to win a Stanley Cup will come within the next three years — or maybe even two. That means a lower cap hit for Bouchard now and a bigger payday for him later.
However, anything the Oilers can do to sign Bouchard for more than four years to buy free-agent seasons — he’s eligible for UFA status in 2027 — would be to their benefit in the long run. They should explore those scenarios, too, just in case there’s a feasible agreement to be had.
Either way, given the importance of Bouchard and his contract, getting him signed before free agency opens on July 1 is ideal. The type of deal he gets could set the course for the rest of the summer.
2. Check in again on Karlsson
The Oilers were looking into acquiring 2023 Norris Trophy finalist Erik Karlsson from the Sharks earlier this year. It’s time to do that again over the next few weeks.
Getting Karlsson, who turns 33 next week, will be an improbable task considering he has four more years left on his $11.5 million AAV contract. Even with salary retention from the Sharks — and possibly another team — the Oilers will have to ditch at least one notable contract and probably two. Those contracts won’t be hot commodities, so the Oilers will have to pay sweeteners to have the Sharks take them on, plus pay assets to get Karlsson.
Again, it won’t be easy. It might not even be feasible. But can you imagine a top four of Karlsson and Darnell Nurse to go along with Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm? That third pair could be some combination of cheap options like Niemelainen, Vincent Desharnais, Philip Broberg and a Ryan Murray-type veteran.
Karlsson could be the final piece to a Stanley Cup championship.
3. Figure out what to do with Yamamoto
As the management team and coaching staff breaks down the 2022-23 season, they might determine to stay the course with Kailer Yamamoto and let him play out the last year of his contract.
That wouldn’t be an unreasonable viewpoint considering how banged up Yamamoto was this season. A reboot in the fall just might be the ticket to jump-starting his career.
That seems like the least likely solution.
Yamamoto has a $3.1 million cap hit, which is overpriced for his role as a second-liner. That sixth top-six position could use an upgrade.
There are options to jettison Yamamoto. He doesn’t turn 25 until September and isn’t eligible for free agency for three years. A team with some cap space might be willing to take a flyer on him.
Failing that, the buyout cost on Yamamoto is peanuts. Because he’s younger than 26, Yamamoto would be owed just one-third of the remaining value of his contract. The Oilers would have a cap charge of $433,334 next season and $533,334 for the following campaign.
That $2.65 million for 2023-24 could be put toward Bouchard’s new deal or someone else.
4. Explore the trade market for Ceci, Foegele and Kulak
The Oilers have six players with no-movement clauses, and goaltender Jack Campbell can block trades to 10 teams. Money is tight. The roster needs to be improved.
Options are limited, but there are some. In addition to Yamamoto, Cody Ceci, Warren Foegele and Brett Kulak are trade candidates to create cap space.
Ceci’s position — top-four right defence — is probably the spot on the roster that could use the biggest overhaul. He makes $3.25 million for next season and 2024-25.
Foegele and Kulak both carry $2.75 million cap hits and are perhaps a tad expensive for their roles as a bottom-six winger and third-pairing defenceman, respectively. Foegele has one more year left on his contract, whereas Kulak has three. Both could get more minutes if they return, though, so the Oilers better have a contingency plan if either player is dealt.
5. Touch base with Bjugstad and Janmark
It isn’t essential to re-sign either player but bringing back one or both of Nick Bjugstad and/or Mattias Janmark for bottom-six depth couldn’t hurt.
The Oilers must set their parameters on one-year contracts for the pending UFAs and stick to them. Getting either player to return at the $1.25 million salary Janmark got this season would be a good get for the Oilers. Bjugstad, especially, might have priced himself out of Edmonton given the Oilers’ cap constraints.
6. Do due diligence on Toews
As with Karlsson, the Oilers had discussions — at least internally — about acquiring Jonathan Toews early in the year. Things didn’t progress much further in part because Toews was shut down from Jan. 28 to April 1 because of Chronic Immune Response Syndrome and long COVID.
As with Karlsson, bringing in Toews is worth exploring again as he gets set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1.
Chicago is moving on from its longtime captain, who also missed the entire 2021 shortened season with the same affliction.
There are some major red flags here, so signing Toews, 35, isn’t a must. Anything more than one year and $2 million should be a non-starter. The Oilers will need to ensure Toews has a clean bill of health, too.
Provided everything makes sense, Toews could be a fit. The Oilers could use another bottom-six centre, especially if Bjugstad isn’t retained. Toews would check a lot of boxes — if the contract is right.
7. Re-sign Ryan to a one-year deal
Leon Draisaitl could have mentioned anyone at his season-ending presser when validating the importance of his teammates by saying they are just as important as he and Connor McDavid. That he chose Derek Ryan, the team’s elder statesman, was warranted.
Ryan had an excellent season. The Oilers outscored the opposition 31-24 with him on the ice at five-on-five. He was a veteran presence next to Foegele and Ryan McLeod. He provided exactly what you’d hope to get out of a bottom-six player.
He wants to keep playing. The Oilers are interested in having him back. It shouldn’t be contentious. Just get it done before free agency opens.
8. Sign Kostin by June 30 or consider moving on from him
Klim Kostin was one of the positive stories for the Oilers.
He came to Edmonton via Bakersfield from St. Louis in the ultimate change-of-scenery trade for his pal Dmitri Samorukov. All Kostin did once he got to the big club in November was score in bunches, including three goals in the Los Angeles series, throw his weight around and do it all with an affable personality.
But the Oilers can’t let some nice moments cloud things.
Kostin is eligible for arbitration after making the league minimum of $750,000 this season. His 11 goals and 21 points in 57 games could tack on $1 million to his salary if an adjudication is needed.
That’s why it’s important for the Oilers to get him signed by June 30 — the date qualifying offers are due — or they might have to just let him walk.
The Russian winger deserves a raise, but a salary closing in on $2 million would almost certainly be too hefty considering the Oilers’ cap issues. Don’t forget, rightly or wrongly, Kostin averaged just 7:44 in the playoffs — the lowest among forwards.
The Oilers should work on a two-year extension with a cap hit just over $1 million. And if that doesn’t work, that might be it for Kostin.
9. Target middle-six wingers like Barbashev, Brown, Fast and Haula in free agency
The Oilers won’t be in the market for a top-four defenceman on July 1 unless Ceci is dealt and they don’t acquire another one in a trade before then. Attempting to sign a forward is the more likely play.
The Oilers have five bona fide top-six forwards. They’re missing a sixth one, but that’s not uncommon for teams around the NHL. Given their budget, they’d be best advised to acquire a middle-six winger — someone who can move up and down the lineup and trade places with Foegele (if he returns), Dylan Holloway and whatever other candidate emerges.
Pending UFAs that could fit this description include Vegas series pest Ivan Barbashev, Capitals’ Connor Brown, Hurricanes’ Jesper Fast and Devils’ Erik Haula. Perhaps Brown could be a buy-low option on a short-term deal after he missed all but four games this season due to injury. Have you heard he was McDavid’s junior teammate and the two share an agent?
The Oilers can’t break the bank on this player, though. They don’t need to either.
Because they’re not expecting to be in LTIR to start the season, they can save a little extra cap space ahead of opening night if they want and accrue even more room as the campaign progresses. That could help make it easier to bring in a key piece or two before the 2024 trade deadline.
10. Set aside enough money for McLeod
It might seem weird to have McLeod, who’s finding his place as Edmonton’s long-term third-line centre, at the end of this list. It’s just that McLeod’s next contract shouldn’t be too hard to figure out, and he’s arbitration eligible, so he’ll be signed well before training camp anyway.
McLeod is one of three RFAs on the Oilers. Bouchard’s and Kostin’s situations are way more complicated. The Oilers are projecting a cap hit of between $1.75 million and $2.25 million for McLeod’s next deal — a bridge contract.
All they need to do is make sure they have the high end of that range ready at their disposal. That way they’ll have no trouble signing McLeod ahead of any arbitration date or after a ruling is made — if things get that far.
(Top photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)