Difficult decisions are ahead in the NHL.
With the draft coming Wednesday and free agency following on July 1, teams are hunkering down to figure out their best paths forward. The league’s salary cap is only expected to increase by $1 million — again — and especially among contenders, that could mean major roster attrition.
Will the champion Golden Knights choose their out-of-nowhere goalie over their “money” trade-deadline steal? What will the Bruins sacrifice as they attempt to salvage their record-breaking roster amid an impossible cap crunch? Is the Maple Leafs’ new regime going to do … anything?
Those were some of the questions raised this week when The Athletic asked its NHL staff to assess the biggest decision each team needs to make in free agency this offseason.
For some teams, the decisions are internal, whether it’s which unrestricted free agent to retain or how much can be paid to a restricted free agent. For others, it’s how a gaping hole can be filled externally. Check out our ranking of each team’s salary-cap situation, offseason trade board and free agency big board for additional context.
Here’s the full list — one crucial decision for each team.
How to make a (sensible) addition on defense: Did you know the Ducks were the worst defensive club in the salary-cap era? That was the case again in 2022-23. Scoring chances were routinely allowed, and goals often resulted. Strong team defense isn’t all on the blueliners, but it’s a logical place to start, and Anaheim has Cam Fowler and Jamie Drysdale as the only sure things returning to an already substandard defense corps. The free-agent options aren’t great (Ryan Graves, Radko Gudas, Carson Soucy, etc.), but a savvy short-term buy can be made to help make the Ducks more competitive while the club’s next wave of talented blue line prospects matures. — Eric Stephens
What to do with goalie Connor Ingram: Ingram was claimed off waivers from Nashville before the start of the 2022-23 season, and after a rough start, he played pretty well for a Coyotes team that overachieved by most measures and expectations. Ingram posted a better save percentage (.907) and goals-against average (3.37) than the nominal starter, Karel Vejmelka — and is an RFA with arbitration rights. What to do with him — and how much they’re willing to spend to retain him — is high on general manager Bill Armstrong’s offseason to-do list. — Eric Duhatschek
How to make up for the likely loss of Dmitry Orlov: Orlov was an excellent trade-deadline pickup from the Capitals. He regularly expressed offense via breakouts, transition support and presence at the offensive blue line. He was good defensively and physical when necessary. But with the team’s cap situation, the Bruins won’t be able to meet Orlov’s price. They paid a big price for Orlov and Garnet Hathaway (2023 first-rounder, 2025 second-rounder, 2024 third-rounder) and after the postseason flop, probably won’t have anything to show for it. — Fluto Shinzawa
Whether to retain Tyson Jost: After re-signing Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons, the only real internal decision left is whether to bring back the RFA Jost. Jost was a successful waiver pickup for the Sabres last season and has loved his time in Buffalo. But the Sabres are starting to get short on roster space, so bringing back Jost might keep a younger player off the NHL roster. — Matthew Fairburn
Re-sign or trade Elias Lindholm? Of all of the team’s pending UFAs for summer 2024, Lindholm’s file is the biggest to handle. There’s no immediate replacement of the caliber of the 28-year-old one-time Selke finalist, but do the Flames want to commit eight years to him — and does he want to commit to them? If he goes, Calgary won’t have a No. 1 center and will have a massive void to fill — and you can expect contending teams to circle around the Swede. — Julian McKenzie
How will they round out their goaltending tandem (or trio)? The Hurricanes feel like they have their goaltender of the future in Pyotr Kochetkov, but he’s likely not ready to fully take the reins of Carolina’s No. 1 job. The team has had talks with both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta, who are both pending UFAs, and re-signing one (or both) seems like the easiest path to short-term stability. The Hurricanes have had success with just about any goalie during Rod Brind’Amour’s tenure as coach, but they also don’t want to get caught with goaltending as a weakness during their window to contend for a Stanley Cup. — Cory Lavalette
Whether to re-sign RFA Caleb Jones: Jones is a fabulous skater and an inconsistent defender who’s shown enough flashes of skill to warrant bringing back (he only just turned 26), but the Blackhawks don’t want to create a logjam in front of their bevy of NHL-ready defenseman prospects, such as Kevin Korchinski, Alex Vlasic and Wyatt Kaiser, among others. With older brother Seth Jones and Connor Murphy locked up long-term, and both Jarred Tinordi and Nikita Zaitsev returning, letting Jones walk is the easiest way to free up a roster spot. — Mark Lazerus and Scott Powers
How to handle RFA Bowen Byram: Byram is only 22, and he’s a top-pairing-level defenseman who played big minutes on a Stanley Cup winner. Injuries have plagued him each of his first three seasons, though, so the front office might have trepidation about giving him a long-term contract. Byram will presumably want to get paid big money if he is to sign more than a bridge deal. Will the Avalanche feel comfortable making that big a commitment? Or will the sides have to meet in the middle? — Peter Baugh
Should they sign a free-agent center? The Blue Jackets’ chronic weakness as an organization has been at center ice, but they’re attempting to draft their way to a new reality. Two years ago, they added Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger with first-round picks. This year, they’re almost certain to draft a center with the No. 3 pick, either Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson or Will Smith. In other words, help is on the way. But GM Jarmo Kekalainen will dip his toes in free agency to see if there’s not a player capable of top-six minutes (and production) who is willing to sign a short enough contract that serves as a bridge until the future of the position realizes its potential. That could be a difficult needle to thread. — Aaron Portzline
Whether to keep Evgenii Dadonov: Dadonov is the selection because I don’t think Max Domi’s desired term and money will leave the Stars in a position where they’ll even be able to make a decision. Dadonov is somebody, with his age and role, the Stars could bring back in the loop. They just might have to fill an additional spot on the fourth line with an ELC as opposed to a veteran signing, but Dadonov’s impact on the third line could make that worthwhile. — Saad Yousuf
What to do at backup goalie: The Red Wings used both Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg this past season behind Ville Husso, with none of the three reaching the .900 save percentage threshold. Normally, that would lead you to believe change must be coming behind Husso, who is signed for two more years. But with an uncertain goalie market, could one or both of Nedeljkovic or Hellberg be back? GM Steve Yzerman has said the team is still making that decision, and it’s a big one considering how much better Husso looked when rested. Nedeljkovic, in particular, has shown flashes of high-end play at times, but Detroit will have to decide whether to bring him back (if he’s willing) or seek more consistency. — Max Bultman
Whether to retain Klim Kostin: Oilers GM Ken Holland said he’ll qualify Kostin, a pending RFA with arbitration rights. The word is the Oilers want him to keep him and that he is happy in Edmonton, so he’ll probably be back, but that’s not a guarantee. Kostin is due for a decent pay bump off his league-minimum salary, and the Oilers are in cap hell. The ideal play for the Oilers is to find a two-year compromise to keep the cap hit down and avoid arbitration. But they might have to move on from Kostin if he and his camp drive a hard bargain or a KHL team comes calling with a big offer. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
How to replace their injured defensemen: Aaron Ekblad (multiple injuries, including a broken foot) and Brandon Montour (torn labrum) were seriously hurt during the Panthers’ Cup Final run and figure to miss the start of the season and beyond. How much of their short- and long-term cap space will GM Bill Zito spend to replace their top-four contributions, and where will he look for it? Florida has more than $10 million in projected space, but the UFA market is fairly thin. They were always going to need to add depth, and now they may need more. — Sean Gentille
Choosing the right goalie: If trading for one (hi there, Connor Hellebuyck) isn’t feasible, Kings GM Rob Blake will have to look at the free-agent market to find the best fit to tandem with Pheonix Copley or become the true No. 1. Free agency allows you to add without losing assets, but Blake also has a limited amount of cap space to work with as a new contract for young scorer Gabriel Vilardi could eat up a good chunk of what he has available. But this appears to be a summer where goalies could move around. Finding the right one is paramount for this would-be contender. — Eric Stephens
What to do about RFA Filip Gustavsson: It’s not so much a decision of whether to re-sign Gustavsson. GM Bill Guerin is confident it’ll get done. It’s more so the how — and how much. Gustavsson has arbitration rights, so will it go to a hearing? Or can the two sides find common ground on a bridge deal? How much Gustavsson costs goes a long way in determining what else the Wild will be able to afford in free agency. — Joe Smith
Sitting it out: There is simply no reason for the Canadiens to look at the free-agent market this year. Not only is the market very weak, but the Canadiens also don’t really have significant holes to fill in the short term, and even if they did, they would prefer to fill them with young players. As for their own free agents, letting Jonathan Drouin walk will not be a particularly difficult decision. I’m sure they would love to bring Alex Belzile back, but at his age and coming off the season he just had, exploring the market first would make more sense for him. — Arpon Basu
Whether to spend: The Preds have some space to make moves, but new GM Barry Trotz sounds like a guy who isn’t enamored with this class of free agents. And beyond that, he has a team that isn’t a piece or two away — a team that has several young players who will push for ice time next season. That sounds like a recipe to hold off and be frugal, but there are veterans on this team who expect to return to the playoffs right away. — Joe Rexrode
How to address the goaltending: The Devils’ goaltending was solid in the regular season but a key factor in their Round 2 elimination. Management has to decide whether it’s best to stick with the status quo and hope Vitek Vanecek will be ready for the playoffs next spring — now that he has a better understanding of his workload — or look for a better option. The best upgrade option is Connor Hellebuyck, but even that’s not an easy decision. His elite play will come at a cost between the trade return and his next contract. The Devils have to decide whether they want to spend upward of $9 million in goaltending, or if they can proceed with lower-key options. — Shayna Goldman
How much Ilya Sorokin is worth: The Vezina Trophy finalist is set to enter his final season on a bargain $4 million average annual value, and GM Lou Lamoriello is on record saying the Islanders “certainly would like to” extend the goalie this summer. The question, of course, is what Sorokin is worth. He was far and away the Islanders’ MVP in 2022-23 and is in the prime of his career, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility he’ll want at least $9 million or $10 million per season on a long-term deal. — Kevin Kurz
Whether they can add anyone: After the Rangers sign their two RFAs — Alexis Lafrenière and K’Andre Miller — and find a backup goalie, they’ll have roughly $2 million to $3 million in cap space and just nine forwards on the roster. They could go young and cheap to plug those holes or make a trade and seek out a right-side forward for the middle six, but even that move wouldn’t allow them much flexibility. — Arthur Staple
What to do about RFA Alex DeBrincat: The Senators are facing quite a conundrum with DeBrincat in the weeks ahead. He’s entering the final year of being under team control, with a chance to test UFA next summer. By filing for arbitration, the Senators have effectively killed the offer sheet option for DeBrincat for this summer, but they need to figure out a trade destination for him — ideally ahead of the NHL Draft. There is a remote chance the Senators could agree to a one-year contract with DeBrincat, but the smart money says he’s traded. If another team can hammer out a contract extension with him, perhaps this could turn into a sign-and-trade scenario. — Ian Mendes
How to structure RFA contracts: UFA day isn’t going to be a busy one for the Flyers. James van Riemsdyk — their biggest-name UFA — almost certainly isn’t coming back. And per John Tortorella, while they won’t be sitting out the UFA period entirely, they’ll mostly use it to “backfill” the roster with cheap veterans on short-term deals — players who won’t block out their youngsters but help push the overall team rebuild forward. Their three young RFAs — Cam York, Noah Cates and Morgan Frost — are far more important to the future. GM Daniel Briere will need to decide whether he wants to pursue long-term deals with any of them and then work on negotiating with their camps. It’s an opportunity for Briere to take calculated risks on young players that he believes in, with the hope that once the rebuild is done, their cap hits will look like bargains. Or, the Flyers could give all of them bridge deals and put off committing to them for a couple more years, though that would risk pricing them out of the next phase of the rebuild plan. — Charlie O’Connor
Whether to retain Tristan Jarry or find a new goalie: Jarry is young. He has talent. And it’s not a particularly attractive market for goaltenders (unless we are talking trade market). He has also proven inconsistent and injury prone, though, so it’s easy to conclude that letting him walk is prudent. And perhaps it is. But the Penguins need a goalie if they take that route. The other big decision hanging over free agency, though not regarding a current free agent, is whether to extend Jake Guentzel. Guentzel is undoubtedly the Penguins’ best winger and is unquestionably captain Sidney Crosby’s preferred linemate. However, Guentzel is also the asset that would bring back most in a trade, and he has only a year left on his contract. He’s been a value scorer throughout his 20s, but his 30s are just around the corner and the Penguins have so many needs. Trading Guentzel would be a risk, but the return might deepen the Penguins as they pursue a return to the playoffs. — Josh Yohe and Rob Rossi
What’s the overall organizational strategy? The Sharks are in a tricky position. It still isn’t clear if management intends for this to be a short rebuild or a long-term process, and that’s something that needs to be decided sooner than later. Turning this team around isn’t going to be easy, considering some of its current contracts and prospect pool. The fact that they didn’t slide to the top of the draft order doesn’t help, either. So how the Sharks proceed in free agency may be telling. Should they be looking for actual fits to improve the team, or should the strategy be similar to how early rebuilding teams tend to act with short-term additions who can be flipped at the deadline? — Shayna Goldman
To re-sign or not to re-sign Carson Soucy: The biggest RFA decisions facing the Kraken involved restricted defenders Vince Dunn and Will Borgen, who earned themselves significant raises this past season. There’s also the matter of Daniel Sprong’s exceedingly strong arbitration case and a difficult qualifying-offer situation to navigate. In unrestricted free agency, though, the big question is whether to extend Soucy, who paired well with Justin Schultz on the third pair. Soucy will be in high demand if he makes it to market, and the Kraken will have to decide whether to pay him at a UFA rate, search for an upgrade on the open market (or via trade; Ron Francis did draft Noah Hanifin after all) or save a spot for promising Coachella defender Ryker Evans, a player the organization is thrilled with. — Thomas Drance
Do they try to bring back Ryan O’Reilly? When O’Reilly was traded to Toronto, there was some thought from his camp that a return to St. Louis was possible. After Toronto’s season ended, the veteran center sounded like he wouldn’t be re-signing with the Maple Leafs, but this week The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported that could be possible after all. If O’Reilly wants to come back to St. Louis, does it make sense for the Blues to sign their former captain? Can he help? What’s the cost? Tough decision. — Jeremy Rutherford
How to create cap space: The Lightning have little cap space to work with and have only eight forwards under contract for next year. Ross Colton and Tanner Jeannot are RFAs, while Alex Killorn and two-thirds of the fourth line are about to be UFAs. It seems more than likely that it’ll be impossible for management to bring them all back and that the Lightning will have to find a way to replace whoever departs (likely Killorn, maybe Colton as well) with little money to work with. — Shayna Goldman
Toronto Maple Leafs
I don’t know that there is one! The Leafs have 10 (!) pending UFAs, but just about all of them feel like fairly obvious decisions. Luke Schenn and Noel Acciari, for example, feel like viable return candidates. Justin Holl and Alex Kerfoot, much less so. If I had to pick one, it would be Ryan O’Reilly. I can understand why Brad Treliving might want to bring him back. However, his age and the hints of decline we’ve seen already, coupled with a potentially pricey contract, make for a lot of risk. — Jonas Siegel
Whether Ethan Bear’s future is in Vancouver: The Canucks like the RFA Bear and were expected to qualify and re-sign him, but Bear got hurt playing at the World Championship and will be out for six months, meaning he’ll miss a decent chunk of the regular season. Will Vancouver still tender a qualifying offer at $2.2 million? If the team doesn’t, he’ll become a UFA. Will the Canucks try to work out a one-year deal at a substantially reduced rate? — Harman Dayal
Vegas Golden Knights
Choosing between Ivan Barbashev and Adin Hill: The Golden Knights can bring back nearly their entire lineup from their Stanley Cup run if they choose to, with really only two key players set to become free agents. Those two are Adin Hill and Ivan Barbashev, both of whom are set to hit the open market on July 1. Both had strong postseasons, which could boost their market value. Vegas should have enough to retain one of them but likely not both without another cap-shedding move. — Jesse Granger
Washington Capitals
Will Connor Brown be re-signed? The Caps don’t really have any tough free-agent calls to make this summer. Martin Fehervary, an RFA who doesn’t have arbitration rights, is a big part of the team’s future, so he’ll get re-upped. Additionally, all signs point to UFAs Conor Sheary, Matt Irwin and Craig Smith moving on. The biggest decision figures to be whether to re-sign UFA Connor Brown, who missed all but four games last season with a torn ACL. Word is he’ll be good to go for training camp and the Caps, I’m told, have interest. He counted $3.6 million against the cap last season, but Washington doesn’t figure to have much wiggle room. If he’s interested in a “prove-it” contract, there could be a deal to be had. — Tarik El-Bashir
Figure out who (if anyone) needs to be extended beyond this season: Winnipeg’s free-agent decision-making will depend on its 2024 free-agent class. Pierre-Luc Dubois is expected to move before the draft, and Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler remain good bets to follow in due time. Winnipeg’s 2024 free-agency concerns don’t end there, though: Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo and Nino Niederreiter are entering the final years of their contracts, meaning the Jets’ biggest decisions will be about extending who they can convince to buy into the future. Finally, 2023 UFA Vladislav Namestnikov would be nice to retain, although I suspect the tough decision is his to make — “Do I want to stay?” — and not Winnipeg’s. — Murat Ates
(Top photo of Ivan Barbashev and Adin Hill: Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)