NFLTR Review: Looking Ahead To The 2024 QB Carousel

It’s never too early to look ahead when it comes to the QB position. In this issue:

• Breaking down the 2024 QB carousel, including the unicorn case of K yler Murray
• Tanking season for the 2024 rookie QBs is open
• Other potential options via trade or FA

The Big Picture: Looking Ahead To The 2024 QB Carousel

Quarterback dominates a lot of the discussion and energy in the NFL, and for good reason. If a team doesn’t have a quality player under center, the season is basically over before it begins. And there are always fewer high-level starters than there are open jobs in the NFL, meaning the supply never meets the demand. 

In recent years, the landscape at quarterback has been much more flexible. Starting in 2020, it’s been an annual offseason occurrence to see big-name, franchise-level QBs change teams. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers had nearly 40 years of combined experience with the Patriots and Chargers when they signed with the Bucs and Colts respectively. 

In 2021, the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford and sent the Lions back Jared Goff, a move that ultimately helped them win a Super Bowl like Brady did with Tampa Bay. The Colts also traded for Carson Wentz and there was a ton of buzz around, at the time, Texans QB Deshaun Watson, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. The 49ers also traded multiple first-round picks for the rights to draft Trey Lance. 

In 2022, Wilson was traded to the Broncos. Wentz was traded again, this time to the Commanders. Watson was traded to the Browns and the Falcons traded Matt Ryan to the Colts after unsuccessfully pursuing Watson. None of those moves panned out quite as well, showing it wasn’t a foolproof formula. 

Stil, in 2023 Rodgers was traded to the Jets, while the Raiders cut Derek Carr and he signed with the Saints. Las Vegas replaced Carr with former 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. And the Panthers made a huge move up in the draft for the No. 1 pick and Bryce Young. 

So what will 2024 bring? 

The Current QB Landscape

To answer that, I find it helpful to bin all 32 starting quarterbacks and the relevant backups into similar categories to get a picture of who could be looking to upgrade and who is content with their current starter. At the top are the elite quarterbacks — or at least the ones who are established enough that there’s no question about their status as franchise players. 

Elite/Established

There’s certainly room to quibble about if all of these guys are “elite.” But what’s not up for debate is that they play for teams who have an extraordinarily high level of confidence in their abilities and have either backed that confidence up with hundreds of millions of dollars or will do so in the relatively near future. This is the bucket every other team hopes to be. 

Arrow Up

The next tier is a group who aren’t quite in the established category but definitely has momentum on their side. Tagovailoa had a breakout 2022 season and answered a lot of questions about his ceiling. Unfortunately, new questions about his health cropped up. Take away the multiple concussions and there’s a good chance Tagovailoa would have been on the list of quarterbacks due for big-money extensions this year. Miami still picked up his fifth-year option and guaranteed him $23.171 million in 2024. But it feels like they want to see a little more from Tagovailoa in 2023 before they jump in with both feet on a long-term deal. 

Fields was a dynamic playmaker in 2022, coming within shouting distance of breaking the record for quarterback rushing yards. He recorded 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, 721 of which came via scrambles. However, his passing production was far more uneven. Some of it was due to a poor supporting cast. Fields scrambled so much because that was often when Chicago’s offense was most dangerous. He was a threat to house the ball any time he took off, finishing tied for seventh in the NFL in runs of more than 10 yards and first among all quarterbacks. 

But Fields was bottom-five in PFF passing grade and last in the entire league in ANY/A, which accounts for turnovers and sacks — the latter of which was a big issue for Fields. He was better in EPA+CPOE composite (expected points added + completion percentage over expected), ranking 24th out of 31 qualifying players, as EPA accounts for his rushing production. His CPOE was fifth-worst, though. The expectation in Chicago is that Fields takes another step forward as a passer like we’ve seen other physically talented quarterbacks do in recent years but he still has to follow through. 

Too Early To Tell

This year’s crop of highly-touted rookies makes up the bulk of this category, as we have yet to see them tested at the NFL level. Usually these players get at least two seasons to make their case, barring unique but not impossible circumstances. That’s especially true for first-round picks. Levis is on a bit of a different path as a second-round pick even if the Titans had a solid grade on him. If they finish with a high pick, they’re not as committed to him as the other teams who took their guys in the top five. 

Pickett and Purdy are coming off of rookie seasons where they flashed but they’ll need to continue their progression. Pittsburgh needs Pickett to be more productive after tossing just seven touchdowns as a rookie. He did enough for the Steelers to start winning over the back half of the season and there’s a lot of optimism surrounding him in Pittsburgh among the fanbase and the team. He has to avoid the sophomore slump we’ve seen take down other young quarterbacks, though. 

San Francisco needs Purdy to get healthy. Once he does, he’ll have the edge over the rest of the depth chart, including Lance who remains in this group after having barely played for two years. But I’ve learned by now not to dismiss anything when it comes to the 49ers’ quarterback position. It’s not out of the question current third-string QB Sam Darnold is a factor at some point this season. And if all three fall flat on their face, the 49ers could be sneaky players in the QB market in 2024. 

Established But Old

All three of these players have outstanding resumes. Rodgers will be a first-ballot Hall of Fame player, and Stafford and Wilson will be in the discussion. All three are also coming off of disappointing 2022 seasons where they were not as productive as everyone expected. And all three are getting up there in age. Wilson is 34, Stafford is 35 and Rodgers is 39. 

There’s little question about their status as starters for the 2023 season, but there are major questions for all three beyond. Rodgers has flirted with retirement annually for a few seasons at this point, and while he sounded bullish on the chances of this being a two-year commitment with the Jets, that could depend on how the 2023 season goes. New York made this trade with the expectation of competing for a Super Bowl. Falling short of that would lead to consequences for a lot of people in the organization.  

Stafford didn’t seem healthy at all last season coming off the Rams’ Super Bowl win. There were elbow issues in the summer and then a neck injury that ultimately shut him down midseason. There were persistent rumors that either Stafford was going to call it quits this offseason or the Rams were going to pull the plug and trade him. However, he’s back and supposedly full-go so far this offseason. 

It’s become more and more common to see big-name quarterbacks play into their late 30s, and at 35 that would mean Stafford could have another 3-5 years left. But with his injury history, particularly because it seems to involve issues with both his elbow and neck, the end could also come sooner, which leaves the Rams needing to keep an eye on the future. 

Wilson was banged up too in 2022 but his problems were a little simpler — he just didn’t play well. He leveraged his way out of Seattle with the goal of evolving his game as he got older to become more of a pocket passer, but the outcome last season was an offense that went away from the strengths of his game and highlighted his weaknesses instead. It didn’t help that former Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett was in over his head as well. 

Wilson is 34 and the youngest of this trio, but because the brand of football he was so successful with relies on mobility, there are longevity concerns with him as he ages. New Broncos HC Sean Payton should help, but enough to get Wilson playing at a high enough level to contend in the AFC? If not, the Broncos could pull the plug quicker than people think. It’s also possible the two men reinvigorate each other and the final act of Wilson’s career cements his case as a Hall of Fame player. 

Bottom line, all three of these guys could be out after 2023 or start multiple seasons. There’s a ton of variance. 

Solid Veterans

The players in this batch might not be as good as the elite quarterbacks at the top. But they’re still very good and signed contracts reflecting the belief of their teams that they could win a ton of games with these players under center. 

None of them are irreplaceable, though. At least not under the right circumstances. Jones is the safest given he’s 26 and just signed an extension paying him $40 million a year. The Giants would have a tough time getting out of that deal for a couple of years. In fact, there’s a case he belongs in the arrow-up bucket after last season. However, he has signed an extension already, unlike Tagovailoa and Fields, and he’s not seen on the same level as the players in the established tier. 

New York needs and expects Jones to be more productive with a better supporting cast on offense after throwing just 15 touchdowns in 2022 — and only five interceptions to be fair. They paid him with the expectation and belief he would do so but Jones still needs to actually follow through. If he doesn’t, things could get complex for the Giants. 

Carr should be safe for a couple of seasons based on how the team structured his contract. It would be painful for the team to get out of the deal after just one season. A straight release wouldn’t work while a June 1 cut would allow the team to break even in terms of impact on the 2024 cap with $35 million in dead money. He’s due another $10 million in guarantees for the 2025 season on March 17, 2024. A trade is the most palatable option but the Saints would need to find a taker for Carr’s $30 million 2024 salary and what will probably be $40 million in total guarantees. 

So more than likely, this is a two-year window for Carr, the Saints and HC Dennis Allen. The question is what happens if they don’t do well in 2023? The NFC South is wide open and the Saints expect to compete to win the division. Given the state of the conference, they should be in the mix for a wildcard as well. Missing the playoffs would necessitate some hard questions, especially if Carr takes time to adjust to his new environment — which has happened in the past — and doesn’t play well. If the team really falls on its face, it could be the final straw that triggers the teardown people have been expecting for years. 

Smith just signed an extension but the Seahawks have an out in his deal after this season and he’ll only be safe for as long as he continues to prove he deserves to own the starting job. There’s reason to be confident in that based on how well he played in 2022. Goff has an out in his deal too unless Detroit ends up extending him. He has two years remaining on his contract. 

The Vikings also have an out with Cousins; and so does he. This is the final year of his contract and he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024. This upcoming season is pivotal for both Goff and Cousins with the current vacuum of power in the NFC North. A strong season would likely result in a lucrative new contract for either player. Less than that, and both teams will have to explore their options. 

The Unicorn

Murray is in a category all on his own right now. At first glance, you’d think he belongs in the elite/established group as a former No. 1 pick who signed a mega-deal last summer. There certainly have been no signs of discontent between him and the new regime of GM Monti Ossenfort and HC Jonathan Gannon, who if anything have gone out of their way to show support and confidence in Murray. And by out of their way, I mean taking a jet the Saturday before the draft to a ceremony at Murray’s alma mater of Oklahoma unveiling a statue to honor his contributions to the Sooners as a college athlete. 

But consider this:

• Neither Ossenfort nor Gannon invested the No. 1 pick in Murray, or signed off on his extension. 
• Murray’s recovering from a torn ACL suffered in December, meaning he could miss or be hampered for a sizable chunk of the season. 
• Arizona is the leading contender to finish with the worst record and the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft headlined by USC QB Caleb Williams, who is rare, perhaps generational air as a prospect. They also have the Texans’ first-round pick in 2024, which could end up quite high. 

If the Cardinals are bad enough to earn the No. 1 pick in 2024, they’re going to have a much harder decision on their hands than the Bears did this past offseason. They could trade the pick to another team for a massive haul, perhaps the largest package ever dealt for the No. 1 pick in NFL history. Or they could take Williams and deal Murray — a dynamic talent still in his own right — for significant compensation. 

It would be a bold call to trade away a quarterback as talented as Murray, unless the Cardinals think they’re getting a better player who will be cheaper and allow them more flexibility to fortify the rest of the roster. And for as talented as Murray is, there are persistent questions that remain regarding some of the intangibles of playing quarterback — like the “homework” clause controversy or how current and former teammates have called out his leadership — and his ability to put it all together as a high-level passer. 

The bottom line, there are only a few quarterbacks relative to the available pool of options who the Cardinals would likely prefer over Murray. They just might happen to have access to one of them. This unique set of circumstances makes Murray a legitimate name to monitor as this season unfolds. 

Bridge Quarterbacks

These players are placeholders at this point until their teams can either draft or develop a younger option. For the Titans, that could come this season after trading up for Levis in the second round. Tannehill’s in the final year of his deal and the team seems to be hitting the reset button. Playing well and winning games would hold off the rookie but the latter at least seems like an uphill battle. 

The Raiders explored trading up at least briefly but ultimately didn’t draft a quarterback high to replace Garoppolo this year. He knows HC Josh McDaniels’ system well and won a lot of games in a positive environment with the 49ers, so he’s fine for the time being as they continue to build up the roster. They’re not overly committed to him financially for the next few years, though. The hope is that eventually the right quarterback of the future comes along and Las Vegas can pounce. 

Prove It

All of these players are entering pivotal seasons in 2023. Most of them are still on their rookie contracts and 25 or younger, with the exception of Mayfield who has to win a competition against Trask first. Howell will also have to beat out veteran QB Jacoby Brissett for the starting job, but he’s considered the favorite. Overall, the players on this list have the confidence of their teams to at least open Week 1 of the 2023 season as the starter. After that, it’s up to them. 

Jones is here despite making a run for offensive rookie of the year in 2021 because the 2022 season was such a disaster for everyone involved on the offensive side of the ball in New England. The operation should be much better with OC Bill O’Brien, who actually has a background calling plays as opposed to the inexplicable duo of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Jones’ on-field production should be better. He has to stop butting heads with the coaching staff, though. New England at minimum looked into its options this offseason. If Jones stumbles again, the Patriots could be a lot more aggressive about pursuing an upgrade next year. 

Love is about to get his shot as the starter with Rodgers moving on. Despite the Packers signing him to an extension, he’s only making backup-level money in 2024. The deal guarantees him a spot on the roster but it does not guarantee he will be the team’s starter in 2024. If he plays well, Green Bay will look to sign him to an extension. If he doesn’t, the Packers will dip back into the market for a passer to provide, at minimum, competition. 

Ridder and Howell are getting the nod after flashing as rookies, with their inexpensiveness a major selling point for their respective franchises. Atlanta and Washington could have pursued other veteran, trade or draft options, but elected to save their resources and hope for a diamond in the rough find. Some other teams who have tried this in recent seasons include the Eagles with Hurts, the Texans with QB Davis Mills, the Jaguars with QB Gardner Minshew and the Broncos with QB Drew Lock. As you can see, the results are all over the map. Mostly bad. 

The Buccaneers are hoping to recreate the formula the Seahawks did last season by putting a veteran reclamation project and a younger developmental guy in the same room and taking the winner of the competition. They even hired new OC Dave Canales away from Seattle. However, there’s a reason the Seahawks were widely doubted this season, Despite their success, this formula rarely works. 

Backups, Reclamation Projects & Dart Throws

The remaining list of quarterbacks who could be semi-relevant in 2023 and perhaps beyond. It’s not unheard of for success stories to come out of this group, like Smith in Seattle and Tannehill in Tennessee. The odds are definitely longer, however. 

Brissett and Minshew have the best chance to start games if they can hold off younger options at the position. If it’s close, teams will give the edge to the young guns to try and develop them. Brissett was solid for the Browns last season, though, and if Howell isn’t getting it done, I absolutely could see Commanders HC Ron Rivera pivoting back to the steady veteran.

Wilson is going back to the bench to try and develop into an option for the Jets down the road when Rodgers is done as a potential best-case scenario. What’s more likely is he fades further into the background and continues his trajectory out of the league. 

Trubisky wasn’t cut by the Steelers and remains locked in a backup job for 2023. After his contract is up, he might have a chance to compete for a starting job elsewhere but it’s cloudy. Winston took a pay cut to stay with the Saints and accept the backup job behind Carr. Perhaps he knew his market with other teams would be poor after being injured and benched in 2022. 

The way things have happened for the 49ers, it’s entirely within the scope of imagination to see Darnold playing significant snaps in 2023, looking much better with HC Kyle Shanahan calling plays, and parlaying that into another crack at a starting job in 2024. 

Zappe might have a chance to unseat Jones if the former first-round pick falters. He already has exceeded expectations so far. 

Stidham is someone to watch if Wilson’s tailspin continues in Denver. He signed for high-end backup money in free agency, and Payton isn’t married to Wilson at all costs. 

Supply & Demand

There are at least 13 teams who could be in the market for a new starting quarterback next season. Not all of these squads will end up making a change and some teams not listed might end up here by next January, but this does give an idea of the potential demand depending on how the 2023 season unfolds:

• Buccaneers
• Falcons
• Commanders
• Packers
• Patriots
• Titans
• Vikings
• Raiders
• Jets
• Rams
• Broncos
• Lions
• Seahawks

That’s the demand. Here’s what the supply could look like. 

Pending free agents

The headliners here are Cousins and Tannehill. Cousins is getting older but he’s remained highly productive. The questions with him revolve more around whether he has the playmaking chops to get a team over the hump, especially considering his salary makes it tougher to fortify the rest of the roster. The Vikings have operated with little financial margin in recent seasons and have started the process of cleaning up the books and looking ahead to the future this season. While it’s quite possible Cousins ends up being their best option in 2024, it could also prove to be a natural breaking point. 

If Cousins hits unrestricted free agency, a team that sees itself as a quarterback away is the most likely suitor. The Falcons just want a point guard player to make good decisions and not have to carry the team, which would make them a fit. The Commanders have built up some talent, and with new ownership coming in perhaps Cousins considers a return to D.C. And the 49ers can never be ruled out given Shanahan’s well-known love for Cousins. 

As long as Cousins’ play doesn’t drop off too precipitously, he should have a healthy market. Tannehill is more likely to fall in the Garoppolo tier of deals where a team that needs a bridge quarterback brings him in while leaving the door open to drafting a quarterback. He’d make sense for the Falcons too given the history with HC Arthur Smith. If Rodgers is one and done with the Jets, they could pursue Tannehill since there are several coaches on that staff who have worked with him, assuming they’re still around. Packers HC Matt LaFleur didn’t coach Tannehill with the Titans but runs a similar scheme and could bring Tannehill in to compete with either Love or a rookie. 

After those two, the options thin out dramatically unless one of these players has a breakout season. Otherwise Brissett, Winston and the rest of that bunch will be vying to land with a team as a backup with a chance to start, either by keeping the seat warm for a rookie or via competition. 

The Draft

No one in the NFL will want to talk about this but there are absolutely high-level decision-makers in organizations who have looked ahead to the top of the 2024 class and factored it into their planning this offseason. The 2022 class is a recent warning not to get too ahead of your skis when factoring in future first-round caliber quarterback prospects but based on what guys like Williams and Maye have already put on tape, it’s reasonable to put them at the top of the board in 2024. Had Williams been eligible this past year, he would have been the no-doubt top pick. Comparisons to Mahomes are a dangerous game but it’s impossible not to see the similarities with Williams’ big arm, mobility and daring playmaking streak. 

In fact, the buzz around Williams is already so high that by November and December it would not be surprising for one of the major storylines to be the jockeying among the various teams for the worst record. Arizona’s the current favorite for that but if things start to go south for a variety of teams, they could elect not to try and stop the snowballing. Blatant tanking in the NFL is rare but we might see it in 2023. 

Maye is shaping up to be a decent consolation prize for whoever misses out on Williams. Had he been eligible this season as a sophomore, there’s a good chance he could have gone ahead of anyone else in the 2023 class. He’s tall, mobile and has a huge arm, which has earned him some comparisons to Herbert even though he’s still growing into his frame a little. North Carolina will have some personnel and coaching upheaval on offense to contend with but as long as Maye doesn’t regress significantly, he looks like he’s on the trajectory to be a top-five or top-three pick. 

During the course of the college football season, there are usually one or two other quarterbacks who gain steam and end up in the first-round discussion. Burrow is one of the most notable names in recent years, others include Zach Wilson in 2021 and Richardson this past year. Outside of Maye and Williams, the rest of the above list is with prospects who would not be first-round picks today but could put themselves in the mix with big years. 

Ewers was a top recruit who transferred from Ohio State to Texas after just one season rather than sit behind Stroud in 2022. In his first season as a starter, there were glimpses of playmaking ability. But those were paired with a lot of inconsistency and injuries didn’t help. He has to hold off Arch Manning — Peyton and Eli’s nephew, Arch’s grandson, Cooper’s son — but Manning has a lot of ground to make up over the summer as a true freshman. If Ewers puts it together and has a big season while leading Texas to success, his stock could go supernova. 

Penix and Nix elected to stay in school after transferring to their respective schools and having wildly productive seasons in 2022. They would have pushed to go on Day 2 in this class, and if they continue to be productive they could go even earlier in 2024. Penix has a big arm but a lengthy injury history. Nix is a former highly-touted recruit capable of pulling a rabbit out of his hat one play and then rabbit poop the next. However, he showed more consistency in 2022. 

McCarthy and Travis both play for big-time programs with College Football Playoff hopes in 2023. Travis is undersized but that matters less for the NFL at this point. Michigan asks McCarthy to be more of a game manager so he’ll need to prove he can carry a bigger load. 

Odds are only one or two other guys, whether on this list or not, will end up being seen as worthy of a first-round pick, so keep that in mind. And of that group, history says more than half will probably fail to meet expectations in the NFL. But the payoff for the ones that hit will be big. 

Trade Market

At this point, the 49ers are probably hoping Lance plays well enough in whatever opportunities he gets, whether that’s the preseason or games in the regular season, to have enough trade value to flip in the offseason — assuming he doesn’t start playing like a former No. 3 pick and leapfrog Purdy. There’s not really a rush to trade him during camp or before the trade deadline, as he’s still on a rookie contract and provides valuable depth for a team that saw its season end because it literally ran out of quarterbacks. It’s not inconceivable for a deal to come together if Purdy picks up where he left off, however. 

The 2024 offseason makes more sense for a trade. With how many branches there are on the Shanahan and San Francisco coaching and front office tree, there should be no shortage of partners. The Titans with new GM Ran Carthon came up a lot this year, and if they cool on Levis quickly they could still be an option next year. The Vikings don’t have a long-term option at the position right now. The Packers could be another interesting fit. Atlanta reportedly loved Lance as a prospect, to the point there were some rumors the Falcons would have taken him had he still been on the board. 

If the Patriots are going to trade Jones, there are a number of former New England assistants who could be interested as well. The headliner is the Raiders and McDaniels, who hit it off with Jones in their one year together in 2021. Jones is exactly the kind of quarterback McDaniels loves with his intelligence and competitiveness, and he’d give Las Vegas a potential long-term option. San Francisco was high on Jones as a prospect, so he could fit somewhere on that tree too as a reclamation project. If the Patriots are moving on from Jones after this season, he’s unlikely to cost much in a trade, perhaps just a Day 2 pick. 

The headliner is Murray. If Arizona were to shop him, his market would be fascinating. The expectation for a return would likely be multiple first-round picks. While the talent is there, there are other considerations that can sometimes change the market, as we saw with Jackson and the Ravens this offseason. 

Murray has a $37 million base salary in 2024, the vast majority of which is guaranteed. From 2024 to 2027, Murray is due $97.3 million in salary with rolling guarantees, meaning they vest a year before they’re due. For instance in 2024 his 2025 salary is guaranteed, and so on. That’s not a small amount to take on in addition to giving up draft picks, but the good news is a lot more teams should be in better cap situations in 2024, as the pandemic pinch was still being felt this offseason. But for a new team, that works out to a little over $25 million a year when factoring in other bonuses. Considering the top of the market is going to be $55 million or higher in September, that’s an affordable rate. 

Like Jackson, Murray is also viewed as a better athlete than quarterback at this point by NFL decision-makers. In his annual QB tiers article, the Athletic’s Mike Sando polls his extensive source network to rank the starting quarterbacks into tiers. Murray placed 13th in 2022 and was a Tier II quarterback for the second straight year, which is defined as a player who can “carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.”

Jackson placed 10th and also in Tier II, for what it’s worth. The quotes Sando runs in the piece are also telling. Asked about Murray, one head coach said: 

“He’s a really streaky player. I don’t see the consistency of excellence at the position. When he cannot run, I haven’t seen him play well enough from the pocket to win. And then I don’t think he possesses the decision-making or the ability to just control a game with his mind.  But he’s an excellent player — a dangerous player is a better way to describe him. He’s dangerous when you are unsound, meaning you have bad matchups and he can just hit you on an isolation. But when he truly has to read it out, when there’s not air for him to take advantage of in the run game and then just his running threat, he’s inconsistent with it.”

The highs have been there with Murray, but he has yet to put it together as a consistent passer or player. Because of his size, he will probably be viewed as more of a scheme-specific player who needs an offense tailored to his abilities, not someone you can just drop in one of the two or three conventional offenses that are widespread. That’s not necessarily a bad thing — coaches will want to take advantage of his mobility and won’t just force him to stay in the pocket and run West Coast timing routes. Good coaches at least. Murray has to master how to stay on schedule too, however. 

The evaluation of Murray is further complicated by his torn ACL, which he’ll have to recuperate from this year. The odds are good that he’ll be back to full strength in 2024 but also not 100 percent, which is notable for someone like Murray whose trump card is blinding speed and shiftiness. Former HC Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme was not held in high regard by his NFL colleagues, and while the spread system he ran highlighted some of Murray’s strengths, it also arguably held him back from developing in other areas of his game. 

Because we haven’t seen Murray at his best or utilized to his best in the NFL, that injects some uncertainty into his outlook. Some coaches will look at him and see an opportunity to acquire a special player who just needs the right environment to achieve greatness. Others will see a player who doesn’t fit what they’re looking for and isn’t worth the risk. There aren’t a lot of former Cardinals coaches and staffers in high-profile positions elsewhere, so there are fewer connections to draw. 

However, if the Cardinals were to truly shop Murray, they would have a market. It might not be for multiple firsts, but there would still be numerous teams who would give up a significant amount for a chance at a long-term solution at quarterback. There’s always more demand than there is supply, and Murray has that on his side. 

This Week In Football

• Things have quieted down considerably with the draft in the books along with resolutions to the Rodgers and Jackson situations. We’re headed into about as quiet a summer as I can remember for a few years. There are still some situations up in the air, however, including the Vikings and RB Dalvin Cook. The veteran running back has come up in some trade rumors this offseason but Minnesota hasn’t found any takers for his salary. The draft didn’t spark any deals either. The team brass remains noncommital on his future with the team one way or another, and there’s a lingering sense Cook won’t be back at his current salary. Whether that means he accepts a pay cut or is released and has to look elsewhere for work remains to be seen. 
• It’s been a good offseason to be a defensive tackle so far, and Jets DT Quinnen Williams is one of the top players eligible for a new deal this offseason. However, while the Commanders, Titans and Giants were all able to work out deals with Daron Payne, Jeffery Simmons and Dexter Lawrence in the $22.5 to $23.5 million range, Williams remains unsigned. There’s a gap between his asking price and what the Jets are willing to pay right now. Other reports indicated Williams was looking for as much as $25 million a year, which the defensive tackle market has fallen short of this offseason. There’s still a lot of time for the two sides to negotiate but it’s worth noting the poor history the Jets have with extending homegrown players. The last significant player the Jets drafted and then signed to a second contract was WR Quincy Enunwa. 
• Speaking of extensions, apparently Ravens LB Patrick Queen is a candidate for a new deal even though the team declined his fifth-year option and drafted LB Trenton Simpson in the third round. Ravens GM Eric DeCosta made it a point to say Queen could still have a future in Baltimore in an interview with the team website. The option would have been more than $12 million guaranteed, which is a lot considering what the team already invested in LB Roquan Smith. Queen had his best season in 2022, and whether or not he stays as part of a tandem with Smith likely depends on how he and other teams value him. I’m sure the Ravens have a number they’d love to keep him at, it just depends if that’s the number Queen has in mind for himself. 
• New Texans G Shaq Mason has yet to play a snap in Houston, yet he’s already cashed in. The team signed him to a three-year, $36 million deal this week, dramatically increasing his future guarantees, putting him just outside the top 10 in salary at his position and lowering his cap hit in 2023. This is an example of how the Texans do business in a unique way compared to other teams, as most would have been content to let Mason play out his age-30 season and revisit things in 2024. But Texans GM Nick Caserio knows Mason from their time in New England and is confident in his ability to help solidify the offensive line. Mason’s a solid player, and with LT Laremy Tunsil, former first-round G Kenyon Green, Mason and RT Tytus Howard, Houston has the makings of a solid group if second-round C Juice Scruggs can hit the ground running. 
• There were a few free-agent signings inked this week, but the most notable was easily TE Foster Moreau signing a three-year, $12 million deal with the Saints that included $8 million guaranteed — after being diagnosed with Hodgkins lymphoma. The good news for Moreau is that’s a very treatable form of cancer, and the prognosis from the Saints’ medical team that actually discovered the cancer is positive. He’s expected to play at some point this season, which is just a tremendous outcome for him. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

Wrapping up some final draft-related things, I thought this quote from Lions GM Brad Holmes in response to the critiques of Detroit’s 2023 draft was interesting. The Lions were dinged for not factoring positional value or consensus rank into their draft board…

“You know, the person who doesn’t have much information, and put in less time of work, is kind of disappointed (with) the person who has all the information and put in the most time of work,” Holmes said via Justin Rogers of the Detroit News. “Again, it’s no disrespect. They’re not supposed to have that information. They’re not supposed to grind it for hours and hours, hundreds of hours over weeks for nine straight months. And also, I always say just because a player plays another position doesn’t automatically make them a really good player. Just because somebody plays defensive end or offensive tackle or whatever those ‘premium positions’ are, that doesn’t automatically make them instinctive, productive, smart, top intangible, those things that we look for as a Detroit Lion.”

Holmes’ comment about the information teams have vs what outside forecasters do is interesting because there are studies (PFF) that show media draft analysts collectively, as measured by consensus big boards compiled by PFN’s Arif Hasan and others, are just as good as actual NFL draft capital in predicting future success…

So should teams just stop investing as much time, money and energy into scouting as they do? Not necessarily. Outside consensus is impacted by the NFL, as many notable draft analysts lean on sources with teams to build their rankings. Tangentially they’re benefiting from all the work the NFL does even if they don’t have access to any of the character, background or medical information that teams do. What it does mean is that Holmes and other GMs probably shouldn’t just dismiss the consensus out of hand like they do now and say it has zero value…

The other half of this is positional value, with Holmes expressing a common sentiment in NFL front offices that it matters more to get good players, period, and not worry as much about what position they play. The thing is, the league already understands it’s far more important to be strong at quarterback than any other position and allocates resources accordingly. On the other end of the spectrum, no one is taking kickers, punters or long snappers in the first or second round (usually). What the NFL doesn’t have as fine a calibration for yet is whether the fourth-best running back is worth as much as the 10th, 15th or even 30th-best defensive tackle…

April 27, 2023 may be a dark day for the YouTube-grinding, self-appointed draftniks caressing their analytic formulas but it’ll go down as the day the #Falcons asserted themselves as a force in the NFC:

— Go Long (@GoLongTD) April 28, 2023

Same message as Holmes, just put in a more incendiary fashion…

I’m curious to revisit draft classes for teams like the Rams, Colts, Raiders and others with a bevy of mid-to-late-round selections in a few years on some of the new trade calculators. The fine folks at Over The Cap made this calculator based on average second contract value for each draft slot, and a couple of trades in the last year seem to indicate some NFL teams are using something similar. The big difference compared to the classic trade value charts is that the value drop-off from the top picks to the later ones is far less steep. For instance:

• The first pick of the second round would be worth two mid-fourths.
• The Rams’ 11 Day 3 picks would be worth more than the Lions’ two first-round picks. 
• The Colts’ four fifth-round picks would be worth more than their second and third-rounders

It’ll be interesting to review. Obviously picks high in the first round are more likely to land star players but the NFL as a whole is probably overconfident on who those guys are and where the tiers start to blur together… 

This is a smart stat. Most career rushing attempts for active running backs (age):

Ezekiel Elliott (27): 1,881
Mark Ingram (33): 1,817
Derrick Henry (29): 1,750
Melvin Gordon (30): 1,567
Latavius Murray (33): 1,481

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) May 10, 2023

Contrary to popular belief, workload doesn’t matter for running backs as much as people think it does. To stick with the car analogy, it’s more important how old the vehicle is than how many miles are on it…

Nope. Backs with more career carries through Age X tend to have more career carries AFTER Age X, as well.

(Mostly because “backs with more career Carrie’s through Age X tend to be better RBs, and better RBs tend to play longer.)

— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) December 19, 2022

More info here…

My favorite video on the internet has been found. pic.twitter.com/uWQ0cKrujy

— Evan Moesta (@EvanMoesta) May 12, 2023

I’ll have more schedule reactions next week. But for now, safe to say the Titans are the big winners from the event for this video alone…