It’s always entertaining to look back at all the hot stories of the offseason, such as the outrage at how no team was interested in pursuing Lamar Jackson (when it was pretty clear teams had no leverage and he was going back to Baltimore).
Seven teams did get new quarterbacks, while the Packers promoted Jordan Love after waving goodbye to Aaron Rodgers. The Jets (Rodgers), Saints (Derek Carr), Raiders (Jimmy Garoppolo), Panthers (Bryce Young), Colts (Anthony Richardson), Texans (C.J. Stroud) and Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield) all have their fan bases very excited …
OK, maybe not the Bucs. (Raiders fans are always fired up.)
I have four of those eight teams exceeding expectations this season, though not the four you think. Here are my picks for every team’s win-loss over/under. We’re going with six best bets this year because I went 3-2 last year and didn’t include the Eagles after writing the whole intro about my love for them.
Best bets
All numbers come from BetMGM. If you want to wager on the win totals, you can find them here.
Under 9.5 (+110)
We are not down on the Jets as much as we are down on the entire AFC East. It’s a competitive bunch, and then factor in that those teams get to play the AFC West and the NFC East — two of the toughest divisions in the NFL. Rodgers, 40, still has plenty left in the tank and the Jets have a really good roster and a sharp coach in Robert Saleh. But the first seven games of the season — while Rodgers is still getting adjusted — are: Bills, at Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, at Broncos, Eagles and at Giants. You better have them at least 4-3 if you’re taking the over. I don’t.
GO DEEPER
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Over 8.5 (+105)
What a great spot for Sean Payton to land. Russell Wilson was already starting to turn things around at the end of last season, and now Payton will inject some life into the league’s lowest-scoring offense. He is immediately the second-best coach in the division and will instill some discipline in a team that last season was either getting flags thrown at it or dropping the ball.
Under 8.5 (-145)
Remember when co-owner John Mara was a champion of the people? Back when he ripped the commissioner’s plans to have flexes for late-season Thursday night games and said it was unfair to fans who had made travel plans? Well, the league didn’t forget. The Giants were scheduled for seven road games in their first 11 weeks — with three in 11 days to open the season and then three consecutive road games at Las Vegas, Dallas and Washington to end that stretch. All the while teammates wonder why the bosses gave all that money to Daniel Jones.
Over 9.5 (-120)
Jackson got $52 million per year — with no annoying percentage going to an agent — and he also received gifts. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and an underrated Nelson Agholor to an offense that already had Mark Andrews and J.K. Dobbins. Jackson said he plans to throw for 6,000 yards, and while that won’t happen, a strong offensive line and the added targets will keep his running lanes open.
The Ravens are 45-16 in the regular season with Jackson, and their defense is always tough. Taking 18-to-1 odds on them to win the whole thing is the best Super Bowl value bet on the board.
Over 7.5 (Even)
The Packers were 8-9 with Rodgers, and I actually think they can match that without him. The stale energy will be gone, granted along with some breathtaking throws. But with two very good running backs and all the receivers that were drafted for Rodgers the past three years, Green Bay has enough talent that all Love has to do is be adequate. While Rodgers has to play six games within the AFC East and has NFC East as the cross-conference matchup, Love plays in the friendlier NFC North and gets to face the lowly NFC South (both teams play the AFC West). In fact, four of the Packers’ first five games are against teams with a losing record in 2022. And there’s also a chance that Love is better than adequate.
Jordan Love has the weapons to keep the Packers better than expected. (Eric Hartline / USA Today)
Under 6.5 (-120)
NFL teams never tank, right? What about cutting corners? “Cutting corners for Caleb” Williams has a nice ring to it. The Buccaneers won a Super Bowl with Tom Brady and now have to tear everything down. Sorry, I don’t think the Mayfield-Kyle Trask quarterback battle in training camp will make a difference. Free fantasy football tip, though: New offensive coordinator Dave Canales has big plans for Chris Godwin, whose knee is fine and will be lining up outside and inside and running more deep routes.
The rest of the league
Three teams — the Bengals, 49ers and Chiefs — are tied for the highest over/under win total at 11.5, while the Texans and Cardinals come in with the lowest at 5.5.
Over 11.5 (Even)
Is this year the Bengals finally get over the hump? They lost to the Chiefs by a field goal in the playoffs after beating them the previous three meetings by a combined nine points. Adding left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. was a big-time move, and it feels like the Bengals know it’s now or never with this group before they have to give Burrow his own personal Brinks truck.
Over 11.5 (+115)
It doesn’t matter who plays quarterback, and part of that is due to the ability of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to easily win matchups. Kyle Shanahan is a great play caller, but it helps when you have two dominant chess pieces (make that three with tackle Trent Williams). The 49ers have won 10 consecutive regular-season games and should challenge their franchise record of 15 thanks to an opening schedule of the Steelers, Rams, Giants (at home), Cardinals and Cowboys (at home).
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Under 11.5 (+105)
Wait, what are we doing? Last year, I took the Chiefs under because I thought they would be lost without Tyreek Hill. This offseason — after winning the Super Bowl again — they lost both starting tackles and their leading receiver in JuJu Smith-Schuster. But that doesn’t matter due to having Patrick Mahomes and some young ballhawks on defense. I am taking the under because I think the Chargers and Broncos are both improved in the AFC West. Eleven wins should still be good enough to wrap up an eighth straight division title.
Over 10.5 (-150)
The only thing standing in the Eagles’ way is a stretch of games in Weeks 11 through 15 — at Chiefs, home vs. Bills and 49ers, at Cowboys and at Seahawks. But Jalen Hurts and the Eagles should be able to survive that and earn a high playoff seed that allows them to march toward the Super Bowl again. They replaced every key player they lost in the offseason and continued to use Georgia, the nation’s top college program, as their own farm system.
Under 10.5 (+110)
The Bills were a popular Super Bowl pick a year ago and cruised to a 13-3 record before the wheels fell off. The schedule is tough, plus there are a growing number of NFL people who feel that Josh Allen — at 26! — has hit the ceiling and already is on his way back down. Not only will he have a hard time staying on the field while sacrificing his body the way he does, but some signs of wear and tear are already visible. The line of only 10.5 wins does feel like a trap.
Under 10.5 (-145)
The Jaguars jumped a couple of steps in their rebuilding process, and there will be a step back even with the addition of Calvin Ridley at receiver. Trevor Lawrence had some big moments last season, but there were still some hiccups, and I think the legendary comeback against the Chargers in the playoffs was more about the Chargers than him. I still see a team that was 4-8 going into Week 14 last season.
Under 9.5 (+105)
The Lions had it rolling last season, and I was on the bandwagon just like most of us. But I don’t get why they reached for running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round — or disbanded last season’s very successful tandem of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift, for that matter. The NFL, meanwhile, put the Lions in the crosshairs, with a season-opening prime-time game at the Chiefs. Four of their first seven games are on the road, and the Lions better sweep the Seahawks, Falcons and Panthers at home during that stretch if they’re going to win 10 games.
Dan Campbell’s Lions will have a harder time this season after last year’s surprising 9-8 campaign. (Jorge Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Over 9.5 (Even)
The return of Michael Thomas gives Carr two great receivers, along with Chris Olave, to go with do-everything running back Alvin Kamara. Carr has a good offensive line, too. Cameron Jordan and Tyrann Mathieu lead a proud, long-in-the-tooth defense that should take advantage of a weak division, and coach Dennis Allen gets to face untested quarterbacks Bryce Young and Jordan Love in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively, before they have their feet under them. Those two games are sandwiched between home games against the Titans and Buccaneers, and if you squint, you can even see a 4-0 start for the Saints.
Over 9.5 (+110)
Deshaun Watson was not good when he came back from his 11-game suspension, and the Browns are praying it was just rust. He cost them $230 million guaranteed and three first-round picks, and the Browns are trying to make trades to help him. They added receiver Elijah Moore and then dealt for pass rusher Za’Darius Smith to take some pressure off Myles Garrett. They also get to play the AFC South and NFC West, so that’s at least five wins right there. And they have the Bengals’ number, winning five of their past six matchups. So … take the over.
Over 9.5 (-130)
I have no idea if Dak Prescott is going to break through and stop being a tease. No one does. But there is a lot of talent on this roster, so much so that coach Mike McCarthy’s pledge to run the ball more after letting go of coordinator Kellen Moore doesn’t concern me. The Cowboys won’t get past the 49ers or the Eagles in the playoffs either way, but 10 wins? Book it.
Over 9.5 (+105)
I have no idea if Tua Tagovailoa is going to hold up. No one does. (Mike White is the new backup.) The addition of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is a big one, though, and why I will pick the Dolphins to win the AFC East. The odds are +300. Hmmm.
Over 9.5 (-110)
Kellen Moore is here to save the day. He will help Justin Herbert get to the next level (yeah, despite the media drooling, he just hasn’t been consistent enough) with the help of a healthy offensive line. There are some trappy non-division road games (at Titans, at Vikings, at Jets, at Packers, at Patriots), but the defense will be better as well, especially if cornerback J.C. Jackson returns from last season’s torn patella tendon.
Under 8.5 (-110)
The Vikings are stuck in place, but they have just the thing to fix that. They want Kirk Cousins to start extending plays like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. That doesn’t sound like a great idea, but Cousins’ accuracy will keep the Vikings in close games — they just won’t win all nine one-score games as they did in 2022. They won seven and eight games in 2020 and 2021 before going 13-4 in 2023. Regression seems likely — the defense was already bad AND lost a lot of starters — and the season will come down to the final four games: at Bengals, Lions, Packers, at Lions.
Under 8.5 (+110)
I like receivers Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Allen Robinson II. The offensive line is improved. But Kenny Pickett doesn’t give me confidence that he can take advantage of all that. And though the Steelers also addressed their secondary by adding Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter Jr., the rest of the division improved as well. Coach Mike Tomlin gets hit with his first losing season after narrowly sidestepping it a year ago.
Under 8.5 (Even)
The Seahawks shocked the world — except for me, wink — last season and then had a great draft, adding cornerback Devon Witherspoon and then Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a receiving corps that already had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. But can they win nine games again? Can Geno Smith and a really young defense hold up against a schedule that includes the NFC East and the AFC North? Nah.
Under 8.5 (-110)
The Falcons closed out last season with two consecutive wins to finish 7-10, but beating the Cardinals and the soon-to-retire Tom Brady Bucs doesn’t mean much. Desmond Ridder is likely not the answer at QB. And though Arthur Smith is a run-game savant and drafting Bijan Robinson is great for both of them, I need to see a lot more out of the coach before I think he doesn’t go 7-10 for a third consecutive season.
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Over 7.5 (-125)
Young, at 5-foot-10 and 194 pounds, may be big enough to play QB in the NFL, but no one knows for certain how long he will be able to stand up after taking some hits. Thankfully, the Panthers added Andy Dalton just in … no I can’t even say it. Carolina has an underrated defense and an easy schedule, so a one-game jump from last year is not too much to ask.
Carolina’s underrated defense should help rookie quarterback Bryce Young exceed 7.5 wins. (Jim Dedmon / USA Today)
Under 7.5 (Even)
I doubled the Bears’ win total from last season, as they will go from 0-6 in their division to 3-3. But that only gets me to six wins. And though I like Justin Fields’ potential, the bolstering of the offensive line and new receiver DJ Moore, I don’t think the addition of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and a whole new defensive line is enough. The Bears’ defense was so bad last season that a safety led the team in sacks, and I just don’t see eight wins. Or even seven for that matter.
Under 7.5 (+105)
It’s easy to blame all of the offensive problems last season on Matt Patricia, but the Patriots also don’t really know what they have in Mac Jones. The QB was great during his rookie season and terrible last season, so this year is the tiebreaker. Unfortunately for him, he could very easily be 0-4 after opening against the Eagles, Dolphins, at Jets and at Cowboys. And it won’t all be on him. Defensive guru Bill Belichick won’t be able to turn rookies into impact players that quickly.
Under 7.5 (-150)
Last season, I loved the Broncos under, but the wise guys made it -160, which made it hard to recommend as a best bet. There was no value there. Same here. The Raiders roster is worse than it was last year, when it was 6-11 with Josh Jacobs leading the league in rushing. Jacobs is great, but that’s not happening again. The Raiders have a late bye (Week 13), which is great if you are getting ready for a postseason run. But there are a couple of brutal stretches in the schedule — including the first four games — that make that seem far-fetched, even if Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy.
Over 7.5 (-105)
This is going to go one of two ways. The old guys make a stand … or Ryan Tannehill is benched for Will Levis by the bye in Week 6 and Derrick Henry is traded to the Cowboys. We’re going with Option A — the Titans were 6-6 with Tannehill last season and 1-4 without him — thanks to Weeks 3-5 games against the Raiders, Colts and Commanders and a defense that is always better than you think.
Under 7.5 (-150)
The Commanders finally have a new owner. Now, what about the coach? Ron Rivera has gone 7-9, 7-10, and 8-8-1 in his three seasons with the team, and Sam Howell is expected to take over at QB after playing one game last season. Howell moves well in the pocket, but his long-winded motion doesn’t make you think he’s going to lead Rivera to the promised land of eight or nine wins. But that defensive line of Montez Sweat, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Chase Young will get them knocking on the door of eight wins again. Flip a coin.
Under 6.5 (Even)
Finally, owner Jim Irsay told GM Chris Ballard no more aging quarterbacks, and to just draft one in the first round. Anthony Richardson is a project, but one that can leap tall buildings and throw the ball to the moon. He seems like a good match for new coach Shane Steichen, who opened up the offense with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. Now … none of that means anything this season. The defense was terrible last season, and even if Gardner Minshew steals a game or two standing in for Richardson, the Colts are not sniffing seven wins.
Over 6.5 (-110)
The days of adding expensive veterans and winning playoff games are over, as it all came crashing down last season with a domino-like fall of injured players on offense. Now, 37-year-old Sean McVay, who was a little burned out from the pressure, can have some fun with a new start as the Rams are expected to have more than 25 rookies at training camp. And he still has Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the baddest man in the league in Aaron Donald, motivated after only having five sacks last season (he had 59 the previous four seasons).
Over 5.5 (-130)
Pass. I can’t pass? I think C.J. Stroud was the best QB in the draft, and I buy in with new coach DeMeco Ryans. Laying -130 for the Texans to win six games is a little rich, though, especially after they made a big mistake trading the No. 12 pick, No. 33, a 2024 first-rounder and a 2024 third to move up for Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3. Bad teams need four players more than they need one talented pass rusher. But Ryans inherits some plucky defensive players, and Stroud is better than Young. Six wins.
Under 5.5 (-150)
Arizona was the beneficiary of that short-sighted Texans trade and could be sitting with two of the top three picks in the draft next year. They will likely then trade Kyler Murray and draft either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. But for right now, the Cardinals slept through the offseason other than drafting a franchise left tackle in Paris Johnson Jr. New general manager Monti Ossenfort has a fun year of college tailgating ahead of him, while under 5.5 wins seems like easy money. Though there is nothing easy about -150.
(Top graphic: Sam Richardson / The Athletic; photo of Garrett Wilson: Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)