We haven’t quite reached the quarter mark of the 2023 Major League Baseball season, but after six full weeks of action, we’re ready to hand out a report card grade to all 30 teams.
For each squad, you’ll see Preseason, Current Trajectory and Grade categories.
Preseason is simply what the DraftKings preseason win projections were, chronicled in this article published March 29, or “Opening Day Eve.” (Please temporarily overlook our prognostication that both New York teams would exceed expectations.)
Current Trajectory is a 50-50 average of current winning percentage and current Pythagorean winning percentage—what the team’s record should be based on run differential—extrapolated to 162 games. For example, the Miami Marlins are 19-19 (.500) but have a minus-54 run differential suggesting they should be 13-25 (.342). Find the average of the two percentages (.421), multiply it by 162 and you get a Current Trajectory of 68.2 wins.
From there, grades are based entirely upon how that trajectory compares to the preseason win total.
Teams with a trajectory within one (in either direction) of their preseason win total were given the perfectly average grade of C, as they are who we thought they would be. Teams with a trajectory of one to four wins better than expected get a C+, while teams with a trajectory of one to four wins worse than expected get a C-.
Clubs that are four to seven wins ahead of pace got a B-, while those four-to seven wins behind pace got a D+. So it goes down the line in three-win chunks in each direction to the A+ and F- grades. (Continuing the Miami example, 68.2 is 8.3 below their preseason win total of 76.5, so the Marlins get a D.)
And yes, you read that correctly.
We’re giving out F-minuses.
Several teams deserve it.
Teams are broken up by division and listed in alphabetical order within each division, beginning with the AL East and finishing in the NL West.
Baltimore Orioles
Preseason: 76.5; Current Trajectory: 98.5; Grade: A+
The starting rotation has not been good, posting a cumulative ERA of 5.08. In most offensive categories, the O’s have been just average or slightly above it.
However, there are two things they do as well as any team: draw walks and steal bases. They’ve also gotten sensational production out of the bullpen tandem of Yennier Cano and Félix Bautista with a combined three wins, six holds and 11 saves. That has worked wonders for Baltimore, which surprisingly boasts the third-best record in the majors.
Might we see this frugal franchise spend some money at the trade deadline to improve its odds of winning it all?
Boston Red Sox
Preseason: 78.5; Current Trajectory: 91.7; Grade: A-
After all the offseason outrage with chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom for failing to re-sign Xander Bogaerts and for signing Justin Turner instead of re-signing J.D. Martinez, Boston has somehow put together one of the most potent offenses in the majors.
Will it last? Is Jarren Duran, who’s hitting .372, a legitimate threat for a batting crown? And is it possible to post a winning record when you don’t have a single starting pitcher with an ERA of 5.00 or better?
Let’s just say it’s fair to be a little skeptical. But through 38 games, the Red Sox have been one of the most pleasant surprises.
New York Yankees
Preseason: 93.5; Current Trajectory: 89.5; Grade: C-
The Yankees are a bit behind where they should be compared to preseason expectations, but it’s actually kind of impressive that they’ve been able to maintain a winning record while enduring some horrific injury luck.
Last place in the AL East is certainly unfamiliar territory for the Bronx Bombers, though. We’ll see if they can get healthy and start leapfrogging some of these teams to at least get back into position for a wild-card spot.
Tampa Bay Rays
Preseason: 88.5; Current Trajectory: 125.8; Grade: A++++
Just so we’re all clear, there’s no chance in hell that Tampa Bay gets to 126 wins, which would demolish the all-time record of 116 victories in a single season.
However, there is a good chance this team wins the World Series, provided the injury bug doesn’t do any more irreparable damage to the pitching staff. (Even with Tyler Glasnow nearing a return, take it to the bank that Tampa Bay will be looking to add a starter ahead of the trade deadline.) Nine Rays have already hit at least a half-dozen home runs as they mash their way toward the record books.
Toronto Blue Jays
Preseason: 91.5; Current Trajectory: 89.8; Grade: C-
Toronto has been a mixed bag of guys performing at an All-Star level (Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., in particular) and others failing to even provide replacement-level production (George Springer, Alek Manoah and José Berríos, in particular). However, the net result is a team that is just about exactly where we expected it to be.
But, uh, set yourself a reminder for the morning of June 19 to see how things are going for this team. The Blue Jays’ schedule for the next six weeks consists of six games against both Baltimore and Minnesota, four each against the Astros, Rays and Yankees and three each against Atlanta, Milwaukee, Texas and the New York Mets.
The three-game series in Queens is the only portion of that 36-game stretch against a currently sub-.500 team, and that can hardly be considered a respite.
Chicago White Sox
Preseason: 82.5; Current Trajectory: 55.4; Grade: F-
There’s no better way to encapsulate the 2023 Chicago White Sox than by recapping last weekend.
On Saturday, they lost one of their better hitters, Eloy Jiménez, for four to six weeks to an emergency appendectomy. On Sunday, they had an 11-run inning against the Reds without Jiménez. But on Monday, they allowed eight runs in a single inning while losing to the Royals in a game started by Dylan Cease.
Even when something goes right for the White Sox, it is book-ended by two things going horribly awry. Chicago has allowed more runs than every team except for the Oakland A’s. A trade-deadline fire sale is looking imminent.
Cleveland Guardians
Preseason: 86.5; Current Trajectory: 70.1; Grade: F
This is a poor grade for an underperforming squad, but we’re not throwing in the towel on Cleveland’s season, particularly in this woebegone division. And with both Triston McKenzie (yet to pitch in 2023 following shoulder trouble) and Aaron Civale (landed on the IL with an oblique injury after two starts) nearing a return, an already solid pitching staff should get even better soon.
Will the hitting ever come around, though?
With Steven Kwan and Myles Straw in the everyday lineup, it’s by design that Cleveland isn’t leading the majors in slugging. But plus range in the outfield and speed on the basepaths can only take you so far when you’re dead last in home runs and tied for last in OBP.
Detroit Tigers
Preseason: 69.5; Current Trajectory: 69.75; Grade: C
The Tigers recently caught lightning in a bottle for a few days, sweeping a three-game series against the Mets before winning their first two games in St. Louis. They also had a five-game winning streak in mid-April, which means they’ve already had more five-game winning streaks in 2023 than they had in any season from 2017 to 2021.
Even with those brief surges, though, Detroit is on track for another year of finishing nowhere close to the playoff picture. Javier Báez has been heating up in recent weeks, but the offense has been dreadful as a whole. And with the exception of Eduardo Rodriguez making an early case for Cy Young consideration, the starting rotation has left a lot to be desired.
Kansas City Royals
Preseason: 69.5; Current Trajectory: 53.3; Grade: F
Save for Bobby Witt Jr. being on pace for around 25 home runs and 45 stolen bases and Vinnie Pasquantino having a solid second season in the majors, it’s hard to find a silver lining in what has been a dreadful year for the Royals.
Can’t even make an “at least they’re not as bad as Oakland” argument anymore, as Kansas City recently lost two out of three at home against the abominable A’s—the Royals’ eighth consecutive series loss since taking two out of three from the Giants in early April.
Minnesota Twins
Preseason: 83.5; Current Trajectory: 89.8; Grade: B-
Even the best team in this division hasn’t been thriving, sitting three games above .500. And the troubling part of Minnesota merely treading water is that it has done so in spite of maybe the best starting pitching in baseball.
Heading into Pablo López’s Wednesday start against the Padres, he, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and Bailey Ober each had a FIP below 3.00, collectively doing an outstanding job of limiting both home runs and walks. But run support has been lacking, as no one is even batting .280 and the Twins seem to have only recently noticed that stolen bases are all the rage this season.
Maybe the hitting improves before the pitching subsides, but there might not be a single AL Central team with a winning record this season if that order of operations is reversed.
Houston Astros
Preseason: 95.5; Current Trajectory: 87.6; Grade: D
The reigning champs are still waiting for their first opportunity to utilize Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley and Lance McCullers Jr. in 2023. They recently lost Luis Garcia for the season. They don’t expect José Urquidy back until at least the All-Star break. And they need to come to grips with the fact that signing José Abreu may have been a waste of $58.5 million.
And yet, there they lurk, having spent the entire season in the window of three games below .500 to three games above it.
It’s not the title defense they envisioned, but it’s not some sort of colossal failure, either. And with six games against Oakland on tap before the end of May, perhaps this is where they start to make their run.
Los Angeles Angels
Preseason: 82.5; Current Trajectory: 85.3; Grade: C+
Shohei Ohtani is already running away with the AL MVP, with teammate Mike Trout on the short list of players who could conceivably catch him. The bullpen tandem of Carlos Estévez and Matt Moore has done a sensational job of protecting any late leads the Angels get.
But there’s not much else worth reporting here, as Anthony Rendon continues to produce at nowhere near the level of his gargantuan contract while the non-Ohtani turns through the rotation have fallen somewhere between “adventures” and “disasters.”
The Angels are above .500, but they don’t feel like they’re a serious threat to win the AL West. It’s all more or less what was expected of this team six weeks ago.
Oakland Athletics
Preseason: 60.5; Current Trajectory: 36.3; Grade: F-
We all know the A’s are a wreck. No sense in beating a dead horse. We’re just waiting to find out if the eventual, inevitable move to Las Vegas will be made official before or after they suffer their 120th loss of the year.
Seattle Mariners
Preseason: 87.5; Current Trajectory: 83.2; Grade: D+
Robbie Ray making his final pitch of the season before the beginning of April was quite the unceremonious start to the year for the Mariners. But the combination of Ray’s absence because of Tommy John surgery and Chris Flexen’s ineffectiveness did force them to fast-track Bryce Miller to the big leagues, who has been a lot of fun to watch.
And it might have sparked a turnaround, as the M’s have won six out of nine games since Miller got the call.
The question now is whether hitters aside from Jarred Kelenic will start providing run support to what has been a solid pitching staff. Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández and Eugenio Suárez each owning an OPS in the .630-.660 range—while both Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock struggle to hit the broad side of a barn—is why this team is floundering a bit.
Texas Rangers
Preseason: 82.5; Current Trajectory: 105.8; Grade: A+
While we wait for Corey Seager’s return from an early hamstring injury and wait to find out just how long Jacob deGrom will be M.I.A.—though it will at least be two to three more weeks, according to manager Bruce Bochy—Texas keeps chugging along in first place in the AL West.
Six different Rangers are batting at least .244 with at least four home runs, while three of the four healthy starters have produced an ERA below 4.00. This team is built to win high-scoring affairs, already putting up at least 10 runs on nine occasions. But it’s also paying a whole lot of money for pitching and has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in 20 of 36 games.
Not only are the Rangers out to a hot start, but they also feel like the real deal.
Atlanta Braves
Preseason: 94.5; Current Trajectory: 107.3; Grade: B+
Atlanta has been mighty impressive in emerging as the somewhat clear betting favorite to win the World Series. Ronald Acuña Jr. is all the way back from that torn ACL in 2021 and is the clear front-runner for NL MVP. Former Oakland A’s Matt Olson and Sean Murphy have been stellar in their own right. And the Spencer Strider/Bryce Elder pitching tandem has been outstanding.
But let’s see if they can stay on this trajectory with pitching injuries piling up. Kyle Wright (shoulder) and Max Fried (forearm) landed on the IL less than a week apart, and both are expected to miss multiple months. (Paging: Mike Soroka.)
Miami Marlins
Preseason: 76.5; Current Trajectory: 68.2; Grade: D
By some sample-size miracle, the Marlins have become the luckiest team in baseball history, improving to 12-0 in one-run games with Wednesday’s 5-4 victory over the Diamondbacks.
At some point, though, that luck is bound to run out.
The 1972 New York Mets previously held the record for “luckiest” start to a season when they won each of their first 11 one-run games. At that point, they were 25-7 and had the best record in baseball by a five-game margin. But after inevitable regression to the mean in one-run games, they collapsed and missed the playoffs by 13.5 games.
And at 19-19 overall, Miami isn’t even top-six in the NL, let alone running away with first place. On a runs-per-game basis, the Marlins have the worst offense in baseball. But, hey, it’s pretty cool that the team with the most one-run losses in 2022 (40) has evidently learned how to win those games.
New York Mets
Preseason: 91.5; Current Trajectory: 76.6; Grade: F+
Through 21 games, the Mets were doggone good. Not “Tampa Bay” good, but they were 14-7, half a game back of the best record in the NL.
But then something changed and they lost 12 out of 15 games. And, like, not even acceptable losses. They got swept in Detroit. They lost two out of three at home against both Colorado and Washington. They just…broke.
Maybe they can get back on track. Justin Verlander did toss a gem in Wednesday’s win over Cincinnati while Pete Alonso moved into sole possession of the MLB lead in home runs with his 13th jack. But if they never really recover and end up paying $346 million (plus whatever the exorbitant luxury-tax bill will be) for a .500 season, it will be talked about for decades.
Philadelphia Phillies
Preseason: 88.5; Current Trajectory: 74.4; Grade: F+
The Phillies are sitting at 18-19, which is where they were 37 games into last season. And it wasn’t until Game 51 in 2022 that they turned a corner. Combine that memory with recently getting Bryce Harper back and Ranger Suárez set to make his season debut this weekend and there’s no need to panic yet.
Still, there’s no denying that this is not the start the reigning NLCS champs had in mind when they made Trea Turner a very rich man this offseason.
At least Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are trending in the right direction after shaky starts to the season. Once those co-aces start consistently pitching like the multiple-time Cy Young vote-getters they are, things will look sunnier in Philadelphia.
Washington Nationals
Preseason: 59.5; Current Trajectory: 70.1; Grade: B+
The Nationals are the only team with a trajectory below 85 and a grade above a C+, but flirting with 70 wins felt like a pipe dream six weeks ago.
They’re still a couple of years away from legitimately contending again, but it has been encouraging to see that they actually got some talent in those “our stars for your prospects” trades made at the past two deadlines.
Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz (acquired in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer trade) and MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams (acquired in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell trade) have been four of the best players for this overachieving team. Something to build upon for sure.
Chicago Cubs
Preseason: 77.5; Current Trajectory: 91.95; Grade: A-
The Cubs have been the bizarro Marlins through the first month-and-a-half of the season. No, they aren’t 0-12 in one-run games—they are 2-8, with four of the losses coming against Miami—but they are preposterously sub-.500 overall in spite of a plus-48 run differential that is tied with the eight-games-above-.500 Dodgers for fourth-best in the majors.
The shame of the matter is they just blew a golden two-week opportunity. They were 14-10 in advance of 13 consecutive games against the Cardinals, Marlins and Nationals. They should have gone at least 9-4 during that stretch, if not 11-2 or better. Instead, they went 4-9 and now need to find their way against a much tougher portion of the calendar.
Cincinnati Reds
Preseason: 65.5; Current Trajectory: 67.5; Grade: C+
Similar to the Washington Nationals, the Reds’ primary goal for 2023 is identifying the building blocks for 2025 and beyond. To that end, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer and TJ Friedl are hitting well, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Alexis Díaz are pitching well, and all six of those guys are in their age-27 season or younger.
Cincinnati will likely settle into last place in the NL Central eventually, if not the entire National League. But that’s fine. The future is bright, and it’s going to get even brighter later this season once Elly De La Cruz gets called up and starts mashing.
Milwaukee Brewers
Preseason: 85.5; Current Trajectory: 87.6; Grade: C+
A 20-17 record feels about right for the Brewers, who have assembled just about an entire roster of guys performing at slightly better than replacement level.
The only player on the team worth at least one full win above replacement on either Baseball Reference or FanGraphs is William Contreras, who is only slightly above that threshold. His value is mostly derived from defense, where he has thrown out 7-of-13 attempted stolen bases.
But they’re treading water thanks to their pitching. Corbin Burnes has recovered nicely from two dreadful early starts. Freddy Peralta has reeled off three straight quality starts. The bullpen anchored by Devin Williams has been solid. If they ever get Brandon Woodruff back from the shoulder injury he suffered a month ago, they’ll be in business.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Preseason: 68.5; Current Trajectory: 87.4; Grade: A
On April 29, Pittsburgh was sitting at 20-8 with the best record in the National League after sweeping a double-header against the Nationals, winning the latter game 16-1.
Since then, however, the Pirates have gone 1-9, swept by both Tampa Bay and Toronto before losing two out of three at home to Colorado.
They’re still in better shape than anyone realistically expected before the season began. And thanks to Milwaukee simultaneously crashing and burning, Pittsburgh has merely slipped from 1.5 games up in the NL Central to 0.5 games up in that division. But this over-achiever has come back to earth in a big way, and we’ll see if the Pirates can do anything to right the ship before it’s too late.
St. Louis Cardinals
Preseason: 88.5; Current Trajectory: 63.95; Grade: F-
They demoted highly touted rookie Jordan Walker after 20 games, even though he had one of the better batting averages (.274) on the roster. They’ve taken big offseason acquisition Willson Contreras and moved him from primary catcher to primary DH. One of their pitchers (Jack Flaherty) is yelling at reporters for not understanding pitching, even though he’s the one with the second-worst walk rate in the majors.
It has been a complete implosion in St. Louis, where fans haven’t endured a sub-.500 season since 2007. The Cardinals’ last sub-.420 season came all the way back in 1919.
It’s still early, and they’re only eight games back in the NL Central. But one could easily argue the Cardinals have been even more disappointing than the Oakland A’s.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Preseason: 75.5; Current Trajectory: 85.4; Grade: B
A surprising aspect of Arizona’s strong start is how feast or famine the young guys have been. Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno have excelled, while the likes of Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry, Brandon Pfaadt and Drey Jameson have come nowhere close to their potential.
In other words, the team has been good as a whole, and there’s still plenty of room for improvement here. The Diamondbacks could have legitimate staying power in the playoff conversation if one or two of the pitchers in that 25-and-under-but-underperforming club can figure things out. (And if any of the Mets, Padres and Phillies continue to disappoint.)
Colorado Rockies
Preseason: 65.5; Current Trajectory: 68.2; Grade: C+
The good news in Colorado is that Kris Bryant has stayed healthy and is hitting the ball well, batting .301 with five home runs. At least the second year of his seven-year, $182 million deal is far better than the first. They’ve also won three consecutive series, including a sweep of Milwaukee.
The bad news is that pitching remains a permanent struggle for the Rockies, who have allowed more runs than any other NL team. And even with Bryant hitting well, FanGraphs rates Colorado’s offense as the worst in the majors.
They’ve been slightly better overall than expected, but it’s sad that a team with a $178 million payroll was never supposed to put up a fight.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Preseason: 95.5; Current Trajectory: 98.05; Grade: C+
For the full season, the Dodgers have been only marginally better than anticipated. They entered the year tied with Houston for the highest win total in the majors before getting out to a disappointing 13-13 start.
However, no team has been hotter over the past two weeks. The Dodgers swept the homestand against the Cardinals and Phillies and won series in San Diego and Milwaukee, rapidly ascending from “moderate disappointment” to “borderline favorite to win the World Series.”
If and when they address their shortstop situation ahead of the trade deadline, they might cruise to the No. 1 seed in the NL.
San Diego Padres
Preseason: 93.5; Current Trajectory: 83.2; Grade: D-
Both New York teams and Philadelphia have disappointed compared to their exorbitant payrolls. San Diego also has fallen victim to that trend.
Like the Houston Astros, the Padres have played this entire season within three games above or below .500. They have yet to sweep or be swept in a three- or four-game series.
But at least the important bats are waking up. Over the past 14 days, Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have hit a combined .336 with nine home runs. It feels like this team will be staking its claim to a playoff spot as soon as Blake Snell (1-5 with a 4.89 ERA) and Joe Musgrove (1-0 with a 6.75 ERA) start to at least turn a corner on the mound.
San Francisco Giants
Preseason: 81.5; Current Trajectory: 72.0; Grade: D
Thairo Estrada batting .338 with six home runs and 10 stolen bases has been a pleasant surprise for the Giants. But that hasn’t done them much good in light of the sheer volume of expensive disappointments on the roster.
Between Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto, Anthony DeSclafani, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Brandon Crawford and Alex Wood, San Francisco has seven players making at least eight figures this season. The only one of them providing any real value is DeSclafani, as they have cost a cumulative $98.15 million for a cumulative bWAR of negative-0.7.
Statistics and records current through the start of play Thursday.