Marquette vs. Michigan State odds, prediction, betting trends for 2023 March Madness Round of 32 matchup

Second-seeded Marquette (-2.5) faces seventh-seeded Michigan State on Sunday afternoon with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line (5:15 p.m. ET, CBS).

Marquette got all it could handle from Vermont in its first-round matchup, as the 15th-seeded Catamounts trailed by just five points with under 16 minutes remaining (45-40). Just as Vermont cut the deficit to five, Marquette guard Kam Jones went on to score 18 straight points for the Golden Eagles, pushing the lead to 63-46 and effectively ending Vermont’s hopes of pulling off an upset. Along with a stellar performance from Jones (19 points, seven-of-nine shooting), the Golden Eagles received effective displays from big man Oso Ighodaro (14 points, seven-of-eight shooting) and wing Olivier Maxence-Prosper (11 points, three-of- five-shooting).

Seventh-seeded Michigan State took care of 10th-seeded USC in its opener, posting a 72-62 victory behind a red-hot three-point shooting effort from senior forward Joey Hauser. Hauser made four of six three-point attempts, leading the Spartans with 17 points. In addition, the entire Spartan backcourt chipped in with double-digit scoring output, something Michigan State will need if they have any hope of continuing the season. Michigan State also held USC guards Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson in check, as the duo combined for just 17 points on seven-of-22 shooting from the field.

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Here’s everything to know about betting on Marquette vs. Michigan State in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for this round of 32.

Marquette vs Michigan State odds

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction

Per Sports Interaction, Marquette sits as just a 2.5-point favorite with a -146 moneyline price. The score is set at a relatively low 141 points, considering that both offenses want to increase the tempo in transition.

  • Spread: Marquette -2.5 (-110); Michigan State +2.5 (-110)
  • Above below: OVER 141 (-110); UNDER 141 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Marquette -146; Michigan State +121

Three tipping trends to watch

— Marquette has been a spread bettor’s dream team this season, and has an elite coverage of 64.7 percent (22-12-1 ATS).

— Michigan State has not been a profitable spread bet this season, as the Spartans have covered in just 50 percent of their games (16-16 ATS).

— Marquette was also a profitable OVER team throughout the regular season, going 17-14 over/under.

Marquette key players

While Marquette has several key contributors, the Golden Eagles’ most integral piece is junior point guard Tyler Kolek. Kolek is the quarterback of Marquette’s offense, and has the fifth-highest assist rate among eligible players (39.2). Kolek is also a reliable three-point shooter, shooting nearly 40 percent from behind the arc (45-of-113). Fellow guard Kam Jones leads the team in scoring, averaging 15.1 points per game. Big man Oso Ighodaro also makes a lot of plays with the ball in his hands on offense, leading the Golden Eagles in offensive rating (123.8) while dishing out 3.3 assists per game.

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Michigan State Key Players

Michigan State relies on its backcourt trio of Tyson Walker (14.5 ppg, 46.2 FG%), AJ Hoggard (12.5 ppg, 40.9 FG%) and Jaden Akins (9.7 ppg, 41.8 FG%) to take most of the scoring load, as they are three of the Spartans’ top four scorers. Hauser, the former Marquette Golden Eagle, is MSU’s lone forward averaging in double figures (14.3 ppg, 48.8 FG%). The Spartans don’t have a dominant big man like they’ve had in previous seasons, but forwards Mady Sissoko, Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper form a formidable frontcourt. Neither big has more than five points per game, but all do a solid job in pick-and-roll defense and can stay on the glass.

Best Individual Matchup: Tyler Kolek vs. AJ Hoggard

Both teams’ table-setters make up the battle to watch in this one. Kolek and Hoggard are two of the best pass guards in the country, both ranked in the top six in assist rate. Kolek and Hoggard want to get out in transition to stress opposing defenses, and whichever guard is able to consistently get in the lane gives their team a good chance to advance to the second weekend.

Marquette vs Michigan State state to know

The Spartans enter Sunday afternoon with the nation’s third-best three-point scoring rate, making 39.4 percent of their triples. They have an opportunity to exploit a vulnerable Marquette perimeter defense, one that has allowed the 253rd-best three-point shooting rate (35.1 percent). If the Spartans can shoot the three ball close to their season-long average, they can take down the No. 2 seeded Golden Eagles.

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DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnle (Kansas)

Marquette vs Michigan State Prediction

After going one-and-done with a loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, Michigan State came out with plenty of energy in its first-round matchup against USC. The Spartans held the Trojans to just 44.7 percent shooting from two-point territory (17 of 38), but limiting the Golden Eagles’ efficiency from the interior will be a much tougher task. Marquette’s maintained the fifth-best scoring rate in college basketball, and their ability to get high-percentage looks from the interior results in a multi-possession win over Michigan State.

Prediction: Marquette 74, Michigan State 69. Marquette (-2.5) covering the spread, with the game underway ABOVE the total (141).

See what BetQL predicts for Marquette vs. Michigan State, along with sharp picks, value plays and more for every March Madness game!

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