March Madness CBB DFS Picks (Sunday, March 19): Top plays, values ​​and flag plants

The field continues to shrink in this year’s NCAA Tournament, and after Sunday’s action, we’ll get to the Sweet 16.

There have been some outstanding performances so far in this tournament, with some common and unsuspecting contenders leading the way. We dive headfirst into Sunday’s slate, highlighting our favorite players to reach their fantasy potential to close out the second round.

Be sure to check out some of our features, like our Lineup Optimizer that lets you create 300 lineups in seconds. You can also create an abundance of lineup building rules to suit your playstyle for the boards you play.

Got your own CBB projections? No problem. You can even upload your own projections to use with our optimizer. Not only that, but you can create a custom set of blended projections in our models.

The Lineup Builder at FantasyLabs allows you to build custom lineups on the same screen as our player projections. You can hand build your entire team or just pick a few players you like and let the optimizer take care of the rest.

Now, let’s get into the board!

March Madness CBB Guard Picks

Top Game: Damion Baugh ($8,000)

Damion Baugh does a little bit of everything right, and the TCU Horned Frogs will need him to meet that standard if they hope to escape Sunday’s matchup against the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Baugh leads the Horned Frogs in assists and steals, is second in scoring and third in rebounding. The senior dropped two assists and four rebounds for a triple-double in Friday’s win over the Arizona State Sundevils. The all-out effort has been a hallmark of Baugh’s season, and he should carry that momentum into the Round of 32.

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As expected with metrics like that, the TCU guard has been prone to overachieving in fantasy, especially towards the end of the season. Baugh put up above-average fantasy points in eight of his last 13 games, going north of 30 seven times and 40 twice.

Gonzaga can push the pace offensively, and that could force the Horned Frogs to a season-best offensive effort. TCU needs Baugh to deliver if they hope to make the Sweet Sixteen.

Highest Value: Jordan Hawkins ($6,300)

There is no shortage of guards to choose from on Sunday, with several notable players expected to deliver. Still, Connecticut Huskies guard Jordan Hawkins is underrated for his offensive contributions.

Hawkins ranks second on the team in scoring, with a league-leading 16.0 points per game. He has maintained that production over this most recent tryout, despite a dip in shooting percentage. Over his last nine games, Hawkins is averaging 15.0 points per game while knocking down 35.8% of his shots.

Hawkins’ underlying metrics remain intact, his workload and shot attempts remain consistent, but his shots aren’t falling. The sophomore guard has fallen below his season-long average shooting percentage of 40.1%, making him a progression candidate to end the season.

We expect some growth from Hawkins, and that starts with Sunday’s matchup against the Saint Mary’s Gaels. Look for him to exceed his implied salary expectations as his scoring starts to improve.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems on PrizePicks for the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness CBB Forward Picks

Top Games: Oscar Tshiebwe ($10,100)

Kentucky Wildcats forward Oscar Tshiebwe was expected to be a star in this year’s tournament, but few people expected him to shine as brightly as he has. We expect another team’s best effort in the second round.

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We must call Tshiebwe, the Caretaker, the way he washes the glass. The big man has recorded at least 13 rebounds in five straight games, compiling an astounding 18.0 average over that span. He has done so without compromising his scoring, as Tshiebwe has maintained an average of 16.4 points over the same test.

When factoring in his solid complementary metrics, which included multiple assists, blocks and steals in the opening round, Tshiebwe’s fantasy scoring has been on an entirely different plane. The senior has surpassed 40 fantasy points in four of the five contests, with a rolling average of 44.0.

The Kansas State Wildcats are not a strong rebounding team, ranking 149th in the country. That should give Tshiebwe the leeway he needs to maintain his elite performances and end the day as one of the top-rated forwards.

Highest Value: Ansley Almonor ($5,700)

The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights shocked the basketball world when they got past the #1 seed Purdue Boilermakers in the opening round. The victory came as no thanks to Ansley Almonor, who recorded just one point and two rebounds in the win. Nevertheless, we expect a much improved effort from the forward in Sunday’s game against the Florida Atlantic Owls.

Almonor has been a fixture in the Knights’ starting rotation all year. The sophomore plays the third most minutes while totaling the third most points and the second most rebounds. Furthermore, he chips in with occasional assists, steals and blocks, making him valuable on both ends of the court.

It is clear that his Round 1 performance was the ultimate in an otherwise successful season. Almonor has exceeded the scoring average in four of the previous six, which has resulted in increased fantasy production. It has yielded at least 25.4 fantasy points in each of those outings, above his annual benchmark of 22.2.

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Almonor isn’t nearly as ineffective as we saw on Friday, and he has a chance to rebound against the Owls. Given his low salary and boom potential, Almonor is a real value play that can elevate DFS lineups in any format.

March Madness CBB Flag Plant

Keyontae Johnson ($8,000)

The Wildcats are the top seed in their second-round matchup against the Huskies, but enter the contest as modest underdogs. They will need their best players to step up to pull off the upset, and that starts with Keyontae Johnson.

Johnson leads the team in points and rebounds, averaging 17.7 and 7.1 respectively, but he has set the bar even higher in the past month. Since February 11, the forward is up to 19.0 points per game, with robust complementary statistics. Although he has seen a slight dip in rebounding, Johnson has made up for it with improved assists.

Overall, Johnson remains the primary scoring option for the Wildcats, and he has performed well under pressure. The senior has eclipsed 32.0 fantasy points in two of the last three and will again be called upon against the Huskies. Given his current form, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Johnson topple his ceiling projections.

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