Form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over Tuesday’s meetings in New South Wales.
NOWRA
BEST BET
Race 7 No. 1: Accredited
Son of All Too Hard from the Joe Pride stable who has shown enough in his trials to indicate a bold showing on debut.
NEXT BEST
Race 2 No. 2: Mosgold
Beany Panya takes 2kg off this lightly-raced filly who is closer than ever to a first win.
VALUE
Race 4 No. 8: Twelfth Night
Has come back well this preparation evidenced by her second-up win at Newcastle. Can keep progressing.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 9,13
Race 5: 1,5,11
Race 6: 5,8
Race 7: 1
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Keagan Latham has some great rides (before scratchings) and could be the pick in the TAB Jockeys Challenge.
Keagan Latham is the jockey to follow on Tuesday. Picture: Mark Evans – Getty Images
LISMORE
BEST BET
Race 5 No. 1: She’s Contrary
Boasts a superior benchmark rating to her rivals but ends up with 57.5kg after a 4kg claim.
NEXT BET
Race 2 No. 2: Son Of Heroic
Wouldn’t need to do much better than his first-up placing at Murwillumbah on May 15.
VALUE
Race 3 No. 2: Lampkin Lane
Third-up on Tuesday and every inch of extra ground brings him closer to another win.
INSIDE MAIL
NOWRA
RACE 4
Twelfth Night is a Matthew Smith-trained filly who resumed with a closing fourth in a Hawkesbury maiden on May 10 thus it was no surprise to see her win at Newcastle 20-days later. She has had the proverbial tick over (1200m) trial in between then and now. No reason why she won’t improve again. Cullier has only won once in 17 starts but he has placed seven times including when taking ground off the handy Zouatica here on June 1. Mile suits. Sennaprost is much better served, barrier-wise, on Tuesday.
Bet: Twelfth Night to win
RACE 5
Blazing Sunrise, a son of the 2004 Sweet Embrace Stakes winner Burning Sands, has only won 3 from 37 but keep in mind that he has raced at Nowra twice for a win and a third. That win also happened to be over this same trip and you could make a case to suggest it was a ’better race’ than this one. Port Douglas won back to back races in March/April. His two subsequent runs have contained merit and he’s blessed with the ideal draw for him. Spritely Emily has 1 win from 26 starts but she is almost always competitive.
Bet: Blazing Sunrise to win, quinella 1,5
RACE 6
Divine Vicky has trialled well (despite what the form guide suggests) prior to her debut at Kembla which she won. Granted, it was only a narrow win but she showed plenty of desire and natural ability. The daughter of So You Think had a spin around Warwick Farm in a May 26 trial over 798m to keep her up the mark. King Charles was a suitably apt winner at the Sapphire Coast on the King’s Birthday long weekend. It was a fantastic feat from horse and trainer given that it was a mere 1000m and he ended-up winning easily in 56.86s. The ‘best’ Baranof would win by panels. He was runner-up in an Inglis Millennium remember.
Bet: Divine Vicky to win
RACE 7
Accredited is a son of All Too Hard born and raised at Milburn Creek. Trained by Joe Pride and a wearer of the Proven Thoroughbreds colours, this handsome chestnut three-year-old has finished 6th of 9 and 5th of 6 in his two trials but probably went as well as anything in front of him. Big ‘yes’ to him unless the market says ‘no’. Vancouver’s Crown has raced 15 times for no wins, no seconds but four thirds. It’s never been about talent with this son of Vancouver, more often than not it has been a combination of pattern and bad luck. Vaderzan and Daysee Doom’s son Fameux are serious contenders.
Bet: Accredited to win
LISMORE
RACE 4
Primary Witness is a lightly-raced three-year-old whose record currently reads as four starts for one third; that was al Ballina on October 31 last year over 1300m. The son of Star Witness was $13/ $15 / $13 in the betting when he resumed at Murwillumbah on a 1000m maiden on June 4 and ran quite a decent race finishing half way down the order in quite a strong maiden. The added 200m is bang on for him on Tuesday. Scotland has accepted for Canterbury on Wednesday. Hello In There has accepted for Doomben on Wednesday.
Bet: Primary Witness to win
RACE 5
She’s Contrary has a far superior benchmark rating of 63 here but gets in with 57.5kg off a 55kg limit courtesy of the 4kg claim for Cobi Vilter. She’s Contrary was very good first-up when second at Murwillumbah; keeping in mind that she has won second-up. Form reads better than her rivals; it’s up to her now to convert. Playgirl had excuses (at the start) when last of the 11 in the same She’s Contrary race. Stands to reason that she will be the big improver in the race on Tuesday. He’s The King has done enough to warrant consideration.
Bet: She’s Contrary to win, Daily Double 1st leg (1), 2nd leg (1)
RACE 6
Franklin Corners is a your rolled-gold old fashioned ‘good bush horse’. Not many horses have won 7 races these days, much less from just 35 starts (and he’s got 11 placings too). The most admirable thing about this horse is that he carries such huge weights but always tries his heart out. This is a giant task to win with 61,5kg from a wide gate but better to be with him than against him IMHO. Stoinka has raced here at home four times for a win, two seconds and a third. On top of that, the Daniel Bowen trained three-year-old has a win, a second and a third from his only three goes at the track./distance. Hey Little Sister and Cassia Lane are in the mix.
Bet: Franklin Corners to win
RACE 7
Kermantic has really hit his best stride of late. That much is obvious given the son of the mighty Kermadec has won his last two starts pretty much at this distance, one at Port Macquarie, the other one way home at Murwillumbah. Got the 63kg on board again on Tuesday but he seems not to notice when he is let roll which one would imagine is possible from barrier two. Betcha The Crown is way, way down in class having run in the Group 3 Gunsynd on June 10. Gobbled should feel pretty comfortable in this grade (as good as it is).
Bet: Kermantic to win