It’s still unknown what exactly is plaguing Jace Stoffal — all head coach Mark Wasikowski has indicated is that it’s not arm-related. But regardless of the severity of the injury, or what body part is giving Stoffal trouble, there’s no sugarcoating how direly missed he’s been these last two weeks.
Losing Stoffal has not only hurt Oregon in its last two Friday games — it’s had a trickle-down effect on the entire rotation. Before last weekend, Mercado described Stoffal as a “tone setter,” someone he looks to build off in his Saturday starts. The last two weeks, in the openers of critical Pac-12 series, the Ducks haven’t had that tone setter, thus lacking any kind of tone at all, instead desperately clawing and scratching their way back to try to salvage whatever games they can.
On an 80-degree Friday evening at PK Park, instead of witnessing a potential Stoffal gem, the fans had to settle for Mercado instead. Now, to be fair, Mercado has also shown the ability to twirl a gem in the past — his complete game against Stanford was masterful. But the transition from the bullpen to the rotation has been a rocky one for Mercado, and he just hasn’t provided the consistency Oregon needs in a frontline starter.
All of Mercado’s biggest strengths and weaknesses were on full display against the Washington Huskies. He had his strikeout stuff, punching out six in 3 2/3 innings, while ramping his fastball all the way up to 96 mph at one point. But his continuous struggles with the home run ball were mightily apparent, as were his control issues. For better — and, perhaps, for worse — the fans got the full Mercado experience in Friday night’s humiliating 14-5 loss.
The outing began on a highlight reel play for Rikuu Nishida, but in retrospect, it was foreshadowing what was to come. Leadoff hitter Cam Clayton hit one home-run distance, but the athletic Nishida leaped above the wall and robbed it from flying over.
Two batters later, Coby Morales hit one that nobody was going to rob. The left-handed hitter smacked it the opposite way to give Washington the early lead.
Mercado stayed on the aggressive, pumping fastballs with all his might. He hit 94 mph in the first inning, which is a rarity for him. He collected his second and third strikeouts of the night in the second, working around a one-out single.
But he quickly put himself in a hole in the third by walking the first two batters — never the way you want to start an inning. On a 3-2 count to two-hole hitter AJ Guerrero, he ramped it up a mile per hour higher, recording a strikeout with a 95 mph heater.
His efforts were short-lived, however, as he got burned by Morales again one batter later. A two-run double put the Huskies on top 3-2, a lead they would never relinquish. After issuing another walk, Mercado got out of the inning with his fifth strikeout and a popout, keeping the game close for the time being.
That time did not last very long. Aiva Arquette greeted him rudely, swatting a leadoff homer in the top of the fourth. With one out, Mercado walked back-to-back hitters once again. Wasikowski visited him with a 1-0 count on Clayton, but opted to leave him in there.
“Shoot, he’s throwin’ on Friday nights for you,” Wasikowski said. “I mean, you’re giving a guy the confidence to say, ‘Hey, you should be able to get this guy if you’re gonna be throwing on Friday nights.’”
Mercado, who dialed his fastball up another notch to 96, struck out Guerrero for the third time. But like clockwork, he gave up another extra-base hit to Morales — his third of the night, this time an RBI double. Cleanup hitter Will Simpson then rubbed salt in the already gaping wound, smashing a hanging curveball for the Huskies’ second home run of the inning and third of the game to knock Mercado out.
Mercado wound up throwing 97 pitches, only 49 of which were strikes. He was teetering on a 50-50 strike-to-ball ratio all evening. The three homers brought his season HR/9 up to an ugly 2.23, while his BB/9 rose to a similarly mediocre 5.79. The one positive has been his 9.35 K/9.
Wasikowski thought Mercado’s home run issues stemmed from throwing up in the zone.
“When you’re up in the zone, you’re gonna have a tougher time keeping the ball in the park or keeping the contact to a minimum,” he said.
Another problem was Mercado’s lack of command with his offspeed pitches, which often allowed the Washington hitters to sit fastball.
“Throwing the ball over the plate, throwing it down the zone with good angle is the intent, and he wasn’t doing that tonight,” Wasikowski said. “And obviously, it’s back to the drawing board.”
Mercado has been trending in the wrong direction ever since his great outing against Stanford. What makes it all the more troubling is that on paper, he was supposed to be the Ducks’ best starter this weekend. It’s not like they have Stoffal as a saving grace. The road only gets tougher in the rest of the series, with freshmen Jackson Pace and Matthew Grabmann set to throw in the remaining two games.
“I just want a good pitching performance to where [Pace]’s commanding the ball and he’s getting ahead of hitters and throwing multiple pitches for strikes,” Wasikowski said of what he expects on Saturday. “That’s usually a winning combination.”
The importance of having an ace cannot be understated. Oregon has seen both sides of the spectrum, reaping the rewards of Stoffal’s Friday dominance while also suffering the downfalls of his absence.
This team is still in the hosting conversation, but those hopes have undoubtedly taken a notable hit in recent weeks. Oregon’s offense is going to need to carry the weight and reclaim the final two games of the series, then ride into a strong season finale against Utah.
And more than anything: This team needs its ace Jace back. Otherwise, it’s going to be an uphill battle come time for the postseason.