Party insiders have revealed what is likely to happen as LNP members gather to choose their Fadden candidate after a bitter battle.
Stuart Robert’s retirement from parliament has brought a competitive preselection race with three Liberal nominees for the Fadden by-election, Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell says.
The nominees include emergency doctor and Quadriplegic Dinesh Palipana, Gold Coast City Councillor Cameron Caldwell and the Federal Electorate party president and businesswoman Fran Ward.
“Despite a 9.8 per cent margin in the seat, the Labor Party is expected to run,” Mr Clennell said.
“There is enthusiasm from the Queensland branch of Labor to give it a crack to attempt to win a swing off the Opposition.”
The five candidates who will make their final pitches to members at Saturday’s preselection are Cameron Caldwell, Owen Caterer, Craig Hobart, Dinesh Palipana and Fran Ward.
Supporters from the three leading contenders — Councillor Caldwell, Ms Ward and Dr Palipana — admit it is unlikely anyone secures more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first ballot.
Creating more confusion are concerns only half of the eligible LNP members in the northern Gold Coast electorate will turn up at 1.15pm at the Runaway Bay Community Centre.
An LNP strategist told the Bulletin: “Cameron and Fran are two competitive candidates. They are in the hunt. What it means with Dinesh being involved, there will be no voting majority in the first round (of the ballot).”
The fight for Fadden. Three of the key players in the preselection battle since Stuart Robert retired. From left, Fran Ward, Sam O’Connor and Cameron Caldwell.
Some LNP insiders believe if Dr Palipana runs third, many of his supporters will side with Ms Ward against Councillor Caldwell.
Others suggest that if Ms Ward runs third, her backers in the party will not vote for Cr Caldwell. Ms Ward ran against Cr Caldwell in the 2016 local government elections.
But the strategist rejects talks of a bloc vote saying members are like voters on polling day – many make their mind up as they vote in the booth.
“There are people who will gravitate to the a party candidate because of the politics of that candidate. There are candidates to the Left and the Right. But there is no way of really co-ordinating that voting,” the strategist said.
Dr Dinesh Palipana. Picture: David Kelly.
But as the ballots get underway, and those candidates with the least votes are removed, their supporters will play a key role.
“It will be up to those supporting the minor candidates. They will potentially have the greatest impact on the preselection. Their votes will scatter in unpredictable ways,” the strategist said.
Party figures fear less than half of the branch’s 300 members will attend the vote because of the short notice.
“It’s all going to come down to what happens on the day, who turns up and how many people because right now nobody can pick which way this vote is going to go,” a party source said.
“Up to half the branch may not even show up and it is clear already nobody will get 50 per cent of the vote on the first round, so it could be a long day and night.
“Fran (Ward) and Cam (Caldwell) are doing the most active campaigning, calling around to the members while Dinesh (Palipana) has mostly left it to surrogates.”
Party leaders are already looking beyond Saturday’s vote to the by-election and to the next federal election, which is due in May 2024 but could be held much later in the year.
“Stuart (Robert) is gone and the money is all spent so whoever wins is going to have to start fundraising immediately because we are going to be starting all over again,” the source said.
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