Pat Cummins’ men will enter day five of the enthralling Test at 3-107 in the fourth innings, needing 174 for victory on a day where conditions are likely to favour bowlers.
Heavy rain is expected in Birmingham on Tuesday morning, and England are hoping cloud cover will remain after that to create a similar scenario to when they lost 2-2 in 22 balls on day three.
The other aspect working against Australia is their history in close matches.
Australia have not won a Test by less than 30 runs or three wickets since 2015, while the last time they chased down a total of more than 250 in the fourth innings was 2011.
In the time since that successful pursuit in South Africa, Australia have been beaten in close chases by India in Adelaide (2018), Bangladesh in Mirpur (2017) and New Zealand in Hobart (2011).
Their issues have also extended to final days with the ball, with the 2019 Headingley Test when Ben Stokes got England home by one wicket and India at the Gabba in 2021 the most obvious examples.
Australia, though, remain adamant they are capable of chasing targets.
“It’s a challenge, but as I always say, we want to challenge ourselves to be better each and every day,” spinner Nathan Lyon said.
“We understand that if we go out there and do the basics really well (we can win).
“As Steve Waugh said to me a couple of years ago, it’s about doing it in 10-run partnerships.”
England also hold an advantage over Australia in close games, with the Headingley victory in 2019 coming after Australia’s two-run defeat at Edgbaston in 2005.
The story of that Test remains remarkably similar to current, with Australia chasing 282 on that occasion and 281 in this fourth innings.
Other tight Ashes contests of the past 20 years include England’s three-wicket win at Trent Bridge in 2005, and a 14-run victory at the same ground in 2013.
England quick Stuart Broad believed the common denominator in all those was a home crowd, not a psychological advantage over Australia.
“A lot of the games in England have gone close and that’s where home crowds can roar you through and emotions can carry you over the line,” Broad said.
The winner of the first Ashes Test has proven crucial for the past 25 years, with England in 2005 the only team to lost the opener and still lift the urn.