CODE Bet AFL Show – Round 10 of the 2023 AFL Season: best bets, player props and picks for every AFL game this weekend! The CODE Bet AFL show this week digs into the biggest clashes this weekend with for the best player props, match bets, game picks and AFL Fantasy value, with a Friday night picks, upsets and Harry McFive?!. With all nine AFL games broken down and picked, there’s everything you need for your AFL betting for the weekend ahead. CODE Bet’s Jaymz Clements, Alex Donnelly and Social guy Leo dive into betting tips for all the teams and players who will dominate in this week’s AFL action.
Hawthorn and West Coast head down to Tasmania for a Round 10 AFL clash that finds both teams mired at the bottom of the ladder. Who wins?
Hawthorn (1-8) v West Coast (1-8) BETTING PREVIEW
Hawthorn Hawks: $1.31 (via TopSport)
West Coast Eagles: $3.60 (via Ladbrokesand bet365)
University of Tasmania Stadium, Sunday, May 21, 1:10pm AEST
Full CODE Bet Centre here
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT
- West Coast has covered the line in their previous four away matches against Hawthorn.
- Hawthorn’s last four matches at UTAS have hit under the total points line.
- The highest-scoring quarter in Hawthorn’s previous four matches at UTAS has been the second quarter.
THE MATCH-UP
Hawthorn heads down to the Apple Isle for the third time this season having already played North Melbourne (won) and Adelaide (lost) on the little island. Both of those matches were tight low-scoring contests, which bodes well for the total points hitting the under.
Sam Mitchell’s outfit has shown glimpses of good footy this season early in matches, but that hasn’t been the case in their previous two. The Hawks kicked a mere 48 points against Fremantle and only 49 against Melbourne in the last two games, making it already four occasions in this campaign they’ve kicked fewer than 50 points.
As for West Coast, after a promising opening quarter against Gold Coast, the Eagles injury toll was on full display as they were brushed aside in the second term, losing clearances, inside 50s, and contested possessions in devastating fashion. They went on to lose the match by 70 points.
The Eagles will be playing at the University of Tasmania Stadium for the first time since 2014. It’s an unwelcome return, however, having lost both of their previous matches at the ground.
These two sides are in the bottom three for points scored this season. Hawthorn averages 60 points, while West Coast averages 68 points.
Cam Mackenzie of the Hawks celebrates a goal during round nine. Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
CAN THE HAWKS KICK A WINNING SCORE?
A lot of spotlight has been on Hawthorn this week amid claims of tanking in order to get a good draft pick (with prize being presumed number one pick Harley Reid from the Bendigo Pioneers).
21-year-old midfielder Will Day has been a shining light for the Hawk’s in their inexperienced midfield this season. He has snapped up three consecutive matches of 25+ disposals against the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Melbourne, all of which have excellent midfield depth.
He could find it easier to get the ball in and around the contest against the struggling Eagles midfield, particularly on a smaller ground, where you expect it to be slightly more congested.
But it will also come down to the old heads like James Sicily and Luke Breust to help the Hawks over the line.
Breust in particular doesn’t mind the trip to Tassie (unlike his captain) with 82 goals in 46 games at UTAS. he’s gone for 2+ in four straight with Hawthorn as a favourite: against the Eagles he shoudl top that handily.
Tom Barrass of the Eagles competes for the ball during Round 9. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
CAN THE EAGLES FINALLY FLY AT UTAS?
If the Eagles are to get the four points in this encounter, they will need to do something that they have never been able to accomplish before.
Win at UTAS.
It has been a season to forget thus far. They have a nightmare injury toll of 16 players (which could almost fill an entire starting team) and to add salt to the wounds, they’ve lost their previous seven matches by 40+ points.
The lack of obvious midfield presence has been one of their largest on-field issues this season, particularly against the Suns in the second quarter last weekend.
They will, however, find it a tad easier against an inexperienced Hawthorn midfield.
BARRAS A PRESENCE
Tom Barrass has had at least 17 disposals in five of his last seven interstate matches. Considering the Hawk’s lack of height and physicality in the forward line, he could rack up a few intercept possessions.
THE PICK
Hawthorn enters the match as the favourites on Sunday afternoon and it’s hard to argue against it, despite both teams struggle.
Although the Eagles have been consistently getting beaten by 40+ points, this will be their best chance of keeping a match competitive, even if they ultimately lose, but Hawthorn have more talent and consistency on the park.
The Hawks celebrate a goal during round nine. Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
— BATTLE OF THE GROUNDED HIGH-FLYERS – HAWKS – EAGLES SAME GAME MULTI —
- Total Points – Under +170.5
The total points has hit the under in Hawthorn’s last four at UTAS. These two sides are also in the bottom three for points scored this season.
- James Sicily 20+ disposals
Sicily has had 20+ disposals in 11 of his previous 12 matches
- Liam Duggan 20+ disposals
Liam Duggan has had 20+ disposals in his last five matches including a season-high 32 disposals last week vs Gold Coast
- Connor Nash 25+ disposals
Connor Nash is in great form, having at least 25 disposals in his previous five matches, and should find the footy against a struggling Eagles midfield on a small ground
- Tim Kelly Anytime goalkicker
Kelly has kicked at least one goal in six of his last seven matches against Hawthorn
Oscar Allen has kicked at least two goals in every match this season
SIX-LEG SGM @ $18.65 (via Ladbrokes)
[all odds as of May 18]
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