Frankie back in focus in week to celebrate
Thirty-five races, eight Group 1s, a raft of brain-burning handicaps and more punting opportunities than you can shake a going stick at. Major Festivals take on a life of their own once the first flag falls and predicting what will happen is risky.
Plenty of last year’s bankers delivered – notably Baaeed, Nature Strip, Coroebus, Little Big Bear and Kyprios – but The Ridler, Holloway Boy, Naval Crown and Rising Star all obliged at 33/1 or longer and Frankie Dettori ended the week jobless after simmering tensions with Team Gosden bubbled to the surface.
The world’s most famous jockey will be centre stage again during his final royal meeting of his epic career but A-listers are jetting in from all over the world and GC has been polishing his crystal ball in the hope of getting ahead of the key stories.
How good is Modern Games?
My heart tells me he may not be quite as good as CV that includes a French Guineas, a Woodbine Mile, two Breeders’ Cup wins and a Lockinge might suggest. But Charlie Appleby’s colt is super consistent and, with Baaeed retired, much depends on whether Inspiral returns in the form she showed to demolish good fillies first time out in last year’s Coronation
All in all, this year’s Queen Anne looks a rum punting puzzle. But it would be dangerous to assume that last year’s fourth Chindit – who travelled powerfully while attending a strong pace before trying to savage Modern Games close home at Newbury – is biting off more than he can chew.
Can Aussie Lightning strike again?
History shows that success in the Lightning Stakes is an ideal prep for the King’s Stand but is Coolangatta cut from the same cloth as Choisir, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti, Scenic Blast and last year’s winner Nature Strip? It’s open to question.
Coolangatta battled home in a bunched finish at Flemington in February but her Timeform rating of 118 is 12lb shy of what Nature Strip had achieved prior to his runaway win twelve months ago. Fellow Aussie Cannonball is rated just 112 so, for all that the Aussies are a very welcome presence again, the door is open for the Brits to have a much bigger say this year.
A case of Princess Royal, then?
Quite possibly as Highfield Princess has a string of 120-plus Timeform efforts on her dance card and ran a belter under a G1 penalty when worn down late in the Duke of York. It would be wrong to say she doesn’t handle Ascot but the stiff finish brings others into play and Manaccan and Mitbaahy are likely lads at big prices. Manaccan is highly progressive with a strong Ascot record and he’s poised for another career best after travelling powerfully against race-fit rivals when third in the Palace House under Frankie.
I’ve spent the last few weeks nibbling away at big prices, while Mitbaahy is a speculator after being kyboshed by track bias behind Dramatised in Haydock’s Temple Stakes but the feeling remains that we’ve yet to see the very best of him.
Frankie or Ryan in an SJP shootout?
A clash between Guineas winners always enhances the St James’s Palace Stakes and the duel between Chaldean and Paddington rests on whether the hard-running Newmarket hero can draw the sting from the finish of a colt who stalked and pounced to telling effect at the Curragh.
Timeform numbers suggest Chaldean has the edge on form (123 plays 119p) and I suspect that might be a fair reflection. Paddington’s slightly high head carriage clearly isn’t much of a concern and his rate of progress has been striking but Chaldean blends Frankel pace with an ability to find loads off the bridle and that can tip the scales in his favour again.
And how about this Frankel?
How about him indeed. Galileo’s champion stallion crown is passing smoothly to his most famous son and, eleven years after that jaw-dropping Queen Anne romp, Frankel’s progeny are rolling in heavy for this year’s royal meeting. It starts with Inspiral in the Queen Anne and Chaldean in the SJP then moves on to Adayar and Mostahdaf in the Prince of Wales’s, Al Asifah in the Ribblesdale and possibly Westover in the Hardwicke.
Add in a handful of up-and-coming youngsters and the sons and daughters of the best to ever do it could be in for a right royal occasion.
Is the Prince of Wales’s Stakes the race of the week?
Put it this way, there are ten horses with a BHA rating of 120 plus on show this week and, even without Desert Crown, six of them adorn Wednesday’s showpiece.
Moreover, there’s only 2lb between the sextet on BHA figures. Bay Bridge refused to yield as Adayar and My Prospero came calling over course and distance on soft ground in last year’s Champion Stakes. Luxembourg starred in the Irish Champion and added a front-running string to his bow when holding a slightly unlucky Bay Bridge in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, while Adayar only had two runs in 2022 but showed his Derby and King George-winning fire still burns when forging clear of subsequent G1 winner Anmaat at HQ.
Bookies seldom err in races like this – and the market looks about right – but I’d love to see Adayar in full flight again.
Will stewards be in the spotlight?
It’s fair to say Shaun Parker and his BHA pals could do with a week of players rather than refs in the headlines. Recent history makes a Bing-Bong or two a shade of odds on, which gives armchair Johnnie Cochran’s a perfect chance to judge the judges.
The panel were bang on in demoting Dragon Symbol for hampering Campanelle in the 2021 Commonwealth Cup but The Ridler’s wayward passage in last year’s Norfolk brought interference rules back into sharp focus. And then there was the rum case of Stunning Beauty, declared a runner in the 2021 Kensington Palace even though her noggin was completely covered by a hood as the gates opened.
The Epsom Dash stramash confirmed that if something can go wrong it will go wrong. And if it goes wrong again this week, the Commissars need to be right on the ball.
Where have all the stayers gone?
Strad’s at stud, Kyprios is sidelined and Trueshan could defect for a third year running if the ground is fast. Charlie Johnston feels “the opposition is irrelevant” if Subjectivist is back on song but the dominant 2021 winner has been keener than ideal in two runs since a long injury break and logic suggests a new name will be on the trophy this year. Coltrane looks rock solid for a place at least based on last year’s progress and a Sagaro romp, while showers would make Trueshan a danger to all if a recent breathing procedure helps him settle better than he often does for Hollie Doyle.
But this is tough. Emily Dickinson probably needs a deluge to play a major role but Leger winner Eldar Eldarov is on the up and Broome, Yibir and Echoes In Rain all add surprise potential to the mix.
How will Frankie’s final Royal Ascot go?
David Jennings of the RP feels Ryan Moore is nailed on to be top rider for a tenth time – and he’s probably right – but it will be a shock if snappers aren’t jostling to capture the flying dismount at least a couple of times.
A Farewell Tour isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but the most charismatic rider of all time has been lighting up this summer showpiece through five decades and the Top Five Frankie Ascot wins – aka ‘the Frascot Five’ – from his haul of 77 has just been announced.
1990: You never forget your first and Frankie opened his account at 19 on Markofdistinction. It was a different time. The Queen Anne was a G2 back then – with Eddery, Swinburn and Cauthen in opposition – but the fresh-faced Dettori brought Luca Cumani’s colt from last to first through a narrow gap on the stand rail. “Frankie Dettori there, a young man in form,” said the late Julian Wilson. It beggars belief that he’s still at the top of his game thirty odd years later.
1998: A classic case of the old champ against the young prince. Seven-year-old Double Trigger was sent off at 25/1 as he tried to regain the Gold Cup crown he won in 1995, while Kayf Tara was a four-year-old having just his fifth start. The veteran roared again, making it hurt for a big field including the likes of Celeric and Persian Punch fully a mile out under Darryll Holland, but Kayf Tara was kept wide of the staying streetfighter and wore him down late in a memorable scrap.
2011: Now this really was a different time. Stewards said Frankie used his whip 24 times and banned him for nine days but, for those who relish seeing two warriors going to the limit, the 2011 Prince of Wales’s was spellbinding. Aussie superstar So You Think was sent off 4/11 on his third start for Aidan O’Brien but Dettori was relentless on Rewilding and Aussie Jim McGrath was at his gravel-voiced best as he roared “he’s grabbed him close home!” Watch the video again if you fancy getting in the Ascot mood. It’s a humdinger.
2001: It was tempting to include Lady Aurelia’s demolition job in the 2016 Queen Mary or Grandera’s runaway win in the 2002 Prince of Wales’s. But the 2001 PoW was a world-class race by any standard. Fantastic Light was hemmed in behind the high-class Kalanisi (Kieren Fallon) and Observatory (Richard Hughes) with two to run. But Dettori smuggled the Godolphin globetrotter into the clear and it was all over soon after as Aussie Jim summed things up by saying “he’s killed them for speed.” Magical stuff.
1994: Yes, any journeyman or woman would have won the ’94 King’s Stand when the mighty Lochsong was at the peak of her powers. But there was something perfect about the way Dettori crouched down low and let Ian Balding’s powerhouse mare destroy Europe’s best five-furlong horses on a regular basis. “A beautiful, sweet performance, this,” purred Sir Peter O’Sullevan as the gallant Blyton Lad headed the panting pursuers. No disrespect to current sprint stars like Highfield Princess, Coolangnatta and co. But a peak-form Lochsong would have given them windburn.
Which way to jump in the 1,000 rematch?
Easy ground evidence from HQ suggests there’s little between Mawj and Tahiyra – with the rest 8lb and more back on Timeform – but Friday’s Coronation Stakes represents a more nuanced test. Mawj is battle hardened and makes her own luck, while Tahiyra’s turn of foot carried her out of a pocket and on to Irish Guineas glory.
But what if Mawj has plateaued after eight starts or Tahiyra’s hold-up style faces faster ground and a wide draw over the round mile? And what if there’s a big improver lurking?
Fallen For You bolted up for John Gosden in the 2012 Coronation. Her Kingman daughter Queen For You needs to build on her close second to Sounds Of Heaven in a York Listed event but the way she breezed through most of that race after missing the break suggests she’s well worth a crack at this level.
How big a deal is the Ascot draw?
The sound of the RP’s Paul Kealy fulminating about acts of straight course self-sabotage has become as much a part of Ascot week as the boozy bandstand rendition of ‘Sweet Caroline.’ Where it began, I can’t begin to know it. But Kealy’s assertion that those who try to offset a perceived bias by making a dramatic switch are cruising for a bruising is bang on.
Last year’s Wokingham provided a classic case in point – with those closest to the stand rail utterly dominant – and late rain can add an extra layer of complexity. In short, it’s best to assume a fair deck to begin with and react swiftly if events hint otherwise.
Any sense in opposing the Commonwealth big two?
I suspect Kealy will be banging the Noble Style drum in Friday’s Commonwealth Cup but Charlie Appleby’s colt is starting to look a tricky customer. We’ll have the usual big field but only a select few have genuine G1 potential and it’s easy to see why top juvenile Little Big Bear and non-staying Guineas seventh Sakheer are dominating the market.
It’s a shade of odds on that one or other will oblige but Shaquille has been ultra-progressive this year and it would come as no surprise to see him give the big two a shake at much longer odds.
How will the Saturday highlights play out?
Day five seems a long way off and exchange signals suggest my hopes of landing a big-priced Hardwicke punt on Westover are receding. We could be in Choisir and Blue Point territory if Highfield Princess goes on the backup in the QEII Jubilee Stakes after a King’s Stand win but the internationals hold a strong hand here.
Last year’s third Artorius returns looking much the same horse – which means he will come charging from well back to have a big say – but Wellington has flown in under the radar from HK. Richard Gibson came within a neck of winning the equivalent prize with Gold-Fun in 2016 and a peak-form Wellington is every bit as good as that gelding.
True, he hasn’t been at his absolute peak against new HK sprint king Lucky Sweynesse just lately but Ascot’s demanding six furlongs with Ryan aboard will suit him well and 14/1 looks several points too big.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.