The stats don’t lie. It’s hard to hide after the bye.
Round 13 of the AFL season saw yet another example of how cursed AFL clubs really are after their mid-season break.
Fremantle fell at home to a resurgent Richmond, while Brisbane’s record at the MCG didn’t get any better as they lost to Hawthorn on Saturday afternoon.
Since the start of the 2013 season, teams have won just 45.7 per cent immediately following the bye. That’s 84 wins, 99 losses and one draw out of 184 matches.
Out of the 18 teams in the AFL just four sides have a positive win-loss record after a bye, with St Kilda (7-4), Hawthorn (6-4), Richmond (6-4) and Fremantle (6-5) leading the competition.
Round 14 sees last year’s premiers Geelong and the Gold Coast Suns returning to action.
For the Cats, the curse of the bye has struck again.
Between 2013 and 2019, Geelong lost every match after their mid-season bye. Despite winning their last four encounters after the break, last night’s loss to Port Adelaide has worsened Geelong’s record to 3-8 in their fixtures after the bye since 2013.
Desperate to buck the trend this weekend, the Suns are coming to Melbourne to take on Carlton in a must-win fixture if they want to play finals for the very first time. While Gold Coast defeated Adelaide after their bye in 2022, the Suns lost their previous eight post-bye fixtures (only other win in 2014).
The Blues are favourites this weekend due to Gold Coast’s record in this fixture. Carlton have been backed by many despite going into Sunday’s game off six straight defeats, while the Suns have defeated two sides currently in the top eight (Adelaide, Western Bulldogs) before their break.
This is a match that has significant consequences for both the Suns and the Blues.
Carlton are playing for pride with the fallout of a loss to Gold Coast potentially dire for some associated with the Blues.
Patrick Cripps. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
For Gold Coast, the thought of playing finals for the first time in club history can only occur with victory on Sunday. The Suns host Hawthorn and Collingwood (minus Jordan de Goey) in Round 15 and 16 respectively.
If they can buck the bye trend and defeat Carlton on Sunday, this could be Gold Coast’s best chance of making the finals since Gary Ablett’s heart-breaking shoulder injury in 2014.
With six teams out of action this weekend (Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast), Round 15 could have major implications on the season ahead, particularly for Adelaide and Essendon.
The Crows will face off with Collingwood in an intriguing contest at the MCG, while Essendon travel west to take on Fremantle at Optus Stadium. With both teams vying to stay in the eight, victories after the bye may be important for their finals aspirations.
It must be said that Essendon without a doubt have an easier draw than Adelaide in the back half of the season. A win against Fremantle could all but confirm a Bombers return to the finals.
The race for the eight as tight as ever. The teams who can defy history and claim four points after the bye may look back at their triumph as season-defining for September and finals footy.