A top-four spot for the Power, pushing the eight for the Dons. What’s your club’s end-of-season pass mark? Mick Malthouse analyses where all 18 teams sit.
The stakes are higher with the “prerequisite” 12 wins to make the final eight, upped to 13.
But it also gives the clubs who are lagging behind the chance to make up some ground.
A current pass could become a fail. A current fail could become a pass.
Jordan De Goey and the Magpies are in fine form. Picture: Getty Images
1. COLLINGWOOD
Collingwood, on top of the ladder, has lived up to the high expectations and pre-season commentary. It is without doubt the team to beat.
There are great teams and there are great players. The Magpies are the best of both. Their best players have been positioned to work dutifully and brilliantly as a team. And they are led wonderfully by captain Darcy Moore.
Nothing less than a top-two spot, and a grand final appearance, could now be considered a pass.
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2. PORT ADELAIDE
Port Adelaide is refreshing, energetic, revitalised.
Even with key forwards, Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, and Mitch Georgiades missing for the large chunks of the season, they are well ahead of where they were at this point last year.
Port has won eight in a row which has given them great confidence in one another and in their game style and bodes well for the remaining 12 games.
A top-four finish is the only pass mark for Port now.
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3. BRISBANE LIONS
The Brisbane Lions are one win short of the same time last year, but playing better football. It is less reliant on individuals to get over the line and more reliant on a team approach.
The Lions’ key forwards were disappointing early, but Joe Daniher has certainly stepped up, and Eric Hipwood has ground to make up.
They fell away at the end of last season to be sixth on the ladder, then won two finals before being knocked out in a preliminary final. A top-four finish with home finals, and deep September action must be the current goal.
Anything less than a grand final appearance would be a fail.
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Melbourne are yet to hit their straps in 2023. Picture: Getty Images
4. MELBOURNE
Melbourne had won 10 on the trot at this stage last year. A loss in round 11 led to a mid-season slump, before the Demons picked up to finish second on the home-and-away ladder. Going out in straight sets was unacceptable for the reigning premiers.
The addition of Brodie Grundy this year, however, should be the difference between a disappointing finals series and more success. Though the Demons are yet to fully benefit from the potential greatness of this ruck combination with Max Gawn.
It’s top four or fail.
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5. ST KILDA
St Kilda won just three games in the second half of last year after eight wins from 11 to start the season. The jury is still out on the Saints’ progress, but for a pass, they need simply to emulate the first half of this year.
The ladder finish is irrelevant if they can finish the season as strongly as it has started, but seven wins plus seven wins would mean finals. That’s not asking too much from a side coached by Ross Lyon, which is already playing some good football by controlling the corridor defensively, an area they were lacking last year.
Top eight and a finals win is a pass.
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6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Western Bulldogs are a very similar story to the Saints in that they are an enigma.
One win more than the same time last year, but Aaron Naughton hasn’t produced, the numbers appear down through the midfield – with Bailey Smith at best, ordinary, and Tim English is still playing as a ruck rover, not as a great ruckman which is what is needed against the best in the competition.
But the Dogs backline looks more secure and that is a real positive. The next four weeks could be make or break.
Going one better and winning a final this year is the only way to pass.
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The Crows are right in finals calculations. Picture: Getty Images
7. ADELAIDE CROWS
Adelaide is only two wins short of the eight wins for the entire last season. The Crows are so exciting to watch.
The test was against Collingwood, which they failed by trying to defend a lead for a full quarter. You’d almost expect a crash at some stage, but I hope I’m wrong.
Matthew Nicks has been patient and also aggressive, and it’s paid off.
Just falling short of the finals would still be a pass for an emerging side.
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8. ESSENDON
Essendon is also one game short of its total wins last season. Brad Scott has predictably been able to straighten them up with strong defence, and a never-give-in spirit.
The Bombers, like Adelaide, should be assessed on their ability to fight it out for a position in the eight. In many respects they are more likely to finish in front of the Crows with the talent they have.
A pass is to go to the wire for a spot in the 8.
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9. FREMANTLE
Fremantle finished fifth after the home-and-away season last year. It still needs to win seven of its last 12 games to have a chance of playing finals again.
After starting horribly, the Dockers have won their last four convincingly and seem to have their mojo back with their run, defence, and slicker ball movement.
Only a finals berth will do here.
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10. GEELONG
Geelong, after such a dominant finals campaign and Premiership, was expected to finish in the top four again.
Given that last year they won seven of their first 11 games and still finished on top, we cannot discount the brilliance and depth of Geelong.
The question was always going to be around hunger. I don’t see the manic desperation of last year, but it cannot by underestimated what Joel Selwood offered, and the effect of losing new captain Patrick Dangerfield to injury for several weeks.
Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins are still the most dangerous forwards in the competition, and Tom Stewart the best backline player, so it is hard to see them missing out on the eight.
Top four might be off the mark, so a pass would be to make the eight and test the top four. Otherwise, it’s a fail.
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Sydney have been one of the disappointments of the year. Picture: Getty Images
11. SYDNEY SWANS
Sydney had an extraordinary run last year but that seems light years away. With an ageing Lance Franklin, Paddy McCartin ruled out for the year, and several of their stars dropping their standards – mainly Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills – it is now a question of whether they can survive the season.
I doubt, albeit that they are just one game out, that the Swans have the depth of talent to make the eight. So, the doomsayers will probably get their wish.
It’ll be a fail for the Swans if they continue to languish.
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12. GOLD COAST
Gold Coast was hoping to make the eight for the first time in history. It’s good is very good, but it’s poor is equally poor.
The Suns have made progress through their game style and application, but hit with injuries to crucial talent like Touk Miller and Ben King, they have struggled to be anything other than competitive. Tracking the right way, their objective must be to remain highly competitive by round 23.
No blowout losses, take a big scalp, and win all the winnable games. That’s a pass.
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Is there any way back for Carlton? Picture: Getty Images
13. CARLTON
Carlton has been a dismal failure. It has been reduced to a team without confidence.
This is not due to its coach, Michael Voss. Carlton brings on its own pressure.
It has a forward line that is potentially as good as Geelong’s, and a midfield as potentially classy as Collingwood’s, but potential has been used too often to describe the Blues.
Well below par right now, the best Carlton can expect is to fight it out for a position close to the eight and take some unexpected scalps along the way.
A top-six finish would have been an early season objective, but right now that’s a long way off so it’s a fail.
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14. GWS GIANTS
Greater Western Sydney showed Geelong last week what it is capable of.
The Giants were exciting and disciplined and played as a team. But they haven’t done that enough.
For Adam Kingsley to achieve a pass mark in his first year, he needs a 50-50 win-loss ratio.
15. RICHMOND
Richmond, from finals to a current 15th ranking, is an unfortunate failure.
The Tigers’ older players are showing their age, and the younger players are providing cameos without consistency.
It will be a frustrating time for interim coach Andrew McQualter as we witness some Tiges of old, mixed in with the Tiges of right now.
Richmond has delivered above and beyond for its supporters in recent years and it is a stable club, so that stability will ensure that the expectations return next year.
A fail is incidental for Richmond. The Tigers will bounce back in 2024.
Sam Mitchell is starting to get his Hawks rolling. Picture: Getty Images
16. HAWTHORN
Hawthorn’s Sam Mitchell, in his wisdom, decided to start from scratch when he took over as coach, moving many senior players out.
The first half of the season has been tough, but I would expect to see the Hawks win more than 50% of their remaining games going forward, with Mitch Lewis back from a knee, and the younger players progressing beautifully.
It is an exciting time for Hawthorn. It is certainly not a bottom three club.
A pass or fail is irrelevant as it comes into force next year. But six wins from the final 12 games would be a pass.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
North Melbourne and Alastair Clarkson were loaded up with high and unjustified expectations.
With the current turmoil it is a credit to the team that it has still been as competitive as it has been.
When club stability returns, then it will be a slow, methodical process for North to climb the ladder. Without further hiccups this will take a few years.
A mark isn’t warranted either way in this instance.
18. WEST COAST
The West Coast Eagles have suffered more injuries to key players than any other club. The media and supporters are the Eagles’ biggest hurdle right now, because it too needs to follow the slow process of going to the draft to bring in new young talent to replace the champions of the past.
There is no logic to a fail when a side has been handed such a harsh hand with injuries. Perhaps the mark will be in how many players return to the track playing decent football.
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