Essendon can “absolutely” make the finals and potentially end their 6855-day finals win drought, with help from a kind draw, according to Brisbane great Jonathan Brown.
The Bombers had to deal with the toughest opening 10 games of any team, but that enabled them to have the easiest run home – most notably with four games against bottom-two sides North Melbourne and West Coast (though they aren’t the only ones with this benefit).
So having gotten through the first 10 rounds with a surprising 5-5 record, Brad Scott’s men have banked another three wins against the Kangaroos, Eagles and fellow bottom four side Carlton.
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It has them 8-5 and sitting sixth on the ladder after 13 rounds; before last week, they hadn’t been in the top six this deep into a season for a decade.
And it’s worth remembering that thanks to a Round 1 thumping of Hawthorn, the Bombers were on top of the ladder after the opening weekend – and only one team since 1995 has been on top of the ladder after Round 1 and not played finals.
While the Bombers have featured in September in recent seasons, they were one-and-done as elimination final losers in 2021, 2019, 2017, 2014, 2011 and 2009 – they famously have not won a final since 2004.
But Brown told Fox Footy’s On the Couch: “Absolutely, I think they can make it now.
“They’ve got enough in the draw, probably a bit scary to look ahead to the draw but there’s enough winnable games there, absolutely.
“Probably need another five wins to make it a certainty. But Brad Scott’s had a huge impact on them, no question about it.”
Essendon’s remaining fixture
Currently 6th, 8-5, 110.6%
Round 14: Bye
Round 15: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 16: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Round 17: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium
Round 18: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Round 19: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG
In the new 23-game season, it’s expected 13 wins should be the new minimum to make the top eight – in the same way 12 wins was the rule-of-thumb minimum in years gone by.
The Bombers play just two more games against teams currently above them on the ladder (Port Adelaide and Collingwood).
Collingwood great Nathan Buckley believes they’re “playing as consistent to their style as any team in the comp; obviously Collingwood, and maybe Port Adelaide have adapted in the last month, but Essendon have been consistent.
“They play a high transition game, and if I was coaching against them, I’d want to try and force the game into stoppage and contest as much as you can and increase both of those areas, because they’re actually not playing a game style that wants that or welcomes that.
“They’re the highest uncontested mark team in the comp, they take it from end to end a lot – they are 18th in allowing the opposition to take it from their forward line to their backline. So in the end, it’s just a high transition game, but if you get Essendon in that game, they’re actually used to it, so they’ll defend end-to-end use.”
Brown responded: “So can they win a final? Well, they’ve got to definitely improve that (the transition game) … though I think they’re a lot better defensively with their tackling.
“So last night 63 tackles to Carlton’s 33. They’re applying themselves defensively, their back six is holding up really well and they’re top six for scores against in the oppo forward 50.”
Big Freeze 9 – ALL OF THE SLIDES! | 03:28
But it’s not just game style driving their improvement.
Fittingly Sunday night’s win over Carlton was a celebration of the 1993 premiership, with the famous ‘baby Bombers’ side who came of age before anyone expected.
“I just wonder whether this new breed of the baby Bombers, are they the baby Bombers mark two?” Brown asked.
“Especially in their midfield … look at the difference in games there, age is very similar, only about seven games difference between those baby Bombers (and these ones).
“(Darcy) Parish is not there at the moment. (Ben) Hobbs, (Nic) Martin, (Sam) Durham, (Jye) Caldwell, (Archie) Perkins. Jeez, that’s exciting as an Essendon supporter, and those guys had a big impact last night.”
The Baby Bombers Mark Two?
Ben Hobbs – 19yo, 25 games
Jye Menzie – 20yo, 14 games
Archie Perkins – 21 yo, 52 games
Sam Durham – 21yo, 39 games
Nic Martin – 22yo, 34 games
Jye Caldwell – 22yo, 47 games
Jordan Ridley – 24yo, 80 games
Sam Draper – 24yo, 56 games
1993 team: Average age 24.5, average games 75.3
2023 team: Average age 25.2, average games 82.3
Buckley added: “It looks to me like they’re just adding a layer every week and they’re on defence first, their offence is very good.
“You know, their contests and pressure can improve and they’ll be tested, but you know, who’s to say that they won’t stand up?”