Eagle Farm picks for Queensland Derby and Kingsford Smith Cup

Hawkesbury Race Club CEO James Heddo praised the upcoming racing event for its ability to retain high-quality horses, jockeys, and trainers while offering substantial prize money and local opportunities.

“It’s a great event for us here at Hawkesbury – it keeps horses who have gone through the championships an opportunity to continue racing for good prize money and stay local,” Mr Heddo told Sky News Australia.

“We’re really pleased with the quality of the jockeys, the trainers, and the horses that are here today, and it’s very proud in the community that we can attract that quality to our track.”

In partnership with Racing NSW.

Kovalica is the favourite in the Queensland Derby and will be out for revenge after a third place finish last weekend while Think About It is the preferred pick in the Kingsford Smith Cup as it looks to build on its five straight wins.

The SkyNews.com.au tipsters are back for another week with their picks boasting odds right out to $41.

The tipsters have also given their bets for the group two BRC Sires Produce Stakes and group three Premier’s Cup.

The track at Eagle Farm is currently soft with horses enjoying the wet favoured to do well on Saturday.

Expert tips:

SkyNews.com.au has recruited four expert tipsters who will help readers pick the best odds and horses to make the most of each race day.

Neil Evans is a regular podcaster, columnist and contributor to The Sportsman – Australia’s leading form newspaper, Racing NSW and the Sydney Morning Herald.

Mick Gannon is a racing expert and leading form analyst at TheGreatTipOff.com, SENTrack and also runs a racing podcast.

Dean Watling is a regular racing expert and analyst for SEN Track, Racing.com, The Race Club Australia and Deanwatling.com.

Matthew Campbell is the head of communications at Betr and expert tipster and form analyst with The Great Tip Off and Punters.

All odds are provided by Betr (at time of publication) and race times are Australian Eastern Standard Time.

Living Turf Premier’s Cup – 12:53pm – 2400 metres – Eagle Farm race 3

Neil’s tips:

Best bet: 4. Kalapour – $3.80 – Shooting for a third win from his last four. Won the Group 3 Chairman’s a fortnight back sweeping home from well back, and can repeat the dose again being ridden near the tail from the outside barrier. Has the superior closing 400m burst and returning to the bigger circuit is a further plus.

Roughie of the race: 10 Otyrar -$10 – Over the odds fifth-up from a nice trailing draw after finishing on from the second half of the field behind Kalapour.

Mick’s tips:

Best bet: 3. Serpentine – $3.80 – Rolls forward and will look to run them into the ground once again. He returned to his best last start and can go on with it out to the 2400m.

Roughie of the race: 8. Warning – $26 – Hasn’t been at his best for some time, but was caught wide last start and I’d suggest that run would have brought him right on. His best is good enough, maps for soft run and will be coming at them late.

Dean’s tips:

Best bet: 5. Kukeracha – $5 – Kukeracha finally gets out to 2400m. He is building well into this preparation and maps ideally from gate 7.

Roughie of the race: 12. Yaphet – $41 – Yaphet has always shown ability, the long Eagle Farm straight suits his racing pattern.

Matthew’s tips:

Best bet: 5. Kukeracha – $5 – Finished strongly in the Wagga Cup to catch the eye. That was third up at 2000 metres so now at fourth run gets up to the 2400 which is perfect. His only other run at the distance he won the Qld Derby, also 4th up off a similar run in the Rough Habit so Chris Waller is following a winning pattern.

Roughie of the race: 1. Fancy Man – $10 – Has had a trial in this short break to prepare for the 2400 and third run in Australia. Two of his four wins overseas were third up.

Aquis Stallions Sires’ Produce – 2:38pm – 1400 metres – Eagle Farm race 6

Neil’s tips:

Best bet: 2. Chrysaor – $5 – Really liked his fast-finishing 1st-up win at Gosford in handy juvenile company, and no reason he can’t take a big step up, and finish over the top of these. Settles back midfield on the inside, and will be saved for one final surge over a furlong further.

Roughie of the race: 7. Armed Forces – $9 – Emerging colt who peaks third-up over 200m further after attacking the line late in the Group 2 Champagne.

Mick’s tips:

Best bet: 15. Zia – $4.40 – She did enough last start to suggest the 1400m is suitable. Maps to sit on speed and give a huge sight.

Roughie of the race: 7. Armed Forces – $9 – He’s a progressive galloper who can produce his best with two races under his belt. Has to turn the tables on a few here, but I think he will.

Dean’s tips:

Best bet: 7. Armed Forces – $9 – Armed Forces strips fitter here 3rd up, he maps well from the gate in a race that lacks speed. He has the most upside in the field and will get his preferred dry deck.

Roughie of the race: 12. The King – $41 – The King was desperately unlucky last start, he has been priced according but can bounce back.

Matthew’s tips:

Best bet: 1. Cifrado -$10 – Very tough race, but thought he was the most likely to appreciate the rise to the 1400 metres where a couple of the main protagonists might be found wanting. Once again draws perfectly to have a crack at them late.

Roughie of the race: 11. Snapback – $12 – Unlucky at Gosford when got held up so should have finished a lot closer. Will also appreciate the extra 200 metres.

Ladbrokes Queensland Derby – 3:17pm – 2400 metres – Eagle Farm race 7

Neil’s tips:

Best bet:1. Kovalica – $1.70 – Gets the ideal trailing draw to win here fourth-up back against his own age at set weights after a terrific closing effort in the Group 1 Doomben Cup behind Huetor. Only bad luck stops him winning.

Roughie of the race: 4. Promises Kept – $7 – Is rock hard fit deep into the prep and stuck on very well after leading in the South Australian Derby.

Mick’s tips:

Best bet: 1. Kovalica – $1.70 – Impressed with 56kg in the Doomben Cup and looks to be going as good as ever. Draws to perfection, gains the services of James McDonald and is the one to beat. 

Roughie of the race: 5. Andalus -$31 – The runner-up in the NZ Derby, pushing Sharp’N’Smart to the line. His ATC Derby run was a complete forgive when ridden upside down on a wet track. Looks a great place bet.

Dean’s tips:

Best bet: 1. Kovalica – $1.70 – Kovalica was only 1.1L off Huetor in the G1 Doomben Cup. He rises 0.5kg and drops dramatically in class and peaks here 3rd up from a smart gate. If he is to be beaten the powerhouse staying commodity of Maher/Eustace looks the likely stable to do so with Promises Kept.

Roughie of the race: 4. Promises Kept – $7

Matthew’s tips:

Best bet: 1. Kovalica – $1.70 – He has been favourite for a long time and  I see no reason to jump off now especially after his great third in the Doomben Cup at WFA level. Undefeated at Eagle Farm and J Mac is back on top. Best of the day.

Roughie of the race: 15. Xtrarevz – $41 – Didn’t mind his finish in the Rough Habit and that was over 2000 metres. Last win was over 2200 so will relish the 2400 metres.

Eva Air Kingsford Smith Cup – 3:57pm – 1300 metres – Eagle Farm race 8

Neil’s tips:

Best bet: 5. Vilana – $7 – High class stallion who is much better served here third-up coming back from the deeper Group 1 Doomben Ten Thousand where he drew inside. Likes to draw so he can settle back off the speed and get to the outside. Bit more pressure on too from further out suits and top jockey takes over. 

Roughie of the race: 7. King Of Sparta – $8.50 – Was very good late in the Group 2 Victory Stakes behind Rothfire, and again settles well back off a soft draw and will be storming home.

Mick’s tips:

Best bet: 5. Vilana – $7 – He’s two from two over 1300m, produced his career peak third-up last preparation and looks set to do it all again on Saturday.

Roughie of the race: 10. Gentleman Roy – $21 – Makes his own pace on speed. Must overcome a wide draw but a testing 1300m is right up his alley.

Dean’s tips:

Best bet: 5. Vilana – $7 – Vilana was dynamic first up this preparation recording a peak career rating. His last start effort was similarly a “tick over” run. He is unbeaten over the 1300m and peaks here 3rd up.

Roughie of the race: 7. King Of Sparta – $8.50 – King Of Sparta has flown under the radar, impressive last star but will need luck from the gate.

Matthew’s tips:

Best bet: 2. A Case Of You – $5.50 – Maybe now out to 1300 on the big Eagle Farm track we will see the best of him. Has been threatening with fast finishes, but is one for one at the distance and big race rider Mark Zahra goes on board so I don’t expect him to be as far back this time.

Roughie of the race: 17. Chaillot – $19 – Had just the one start last prep where she won a listed race at the Sunshine Coast and while this is a step up, first up is the only time to back her. She is 5 from 7 fresh.

To hear more in-depth analysis from Neil Evans listen to the Neil Evans Says Podcast HERE.

For more analysis and tips from Mick Gannon get his premium package for Saturday’s racing HERE and watch Mick’s Group 1 All-In Previews HERE.

For more detailed racing analysis and tips from Dean Watling click HERE.