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As the measles quarantine period for an Auckland high school community has ended, experts say it appears we have dodged a bullet, as officials say there have been no further new cases.
Experts say it appears Aotearoa has “dodged another bullet” after two cases of measles have not resulted in further spread – but warn it’s only a matter of time before we have a case “that gets away from us”.
Auckland Public Health Service medical officer of health, Dr Shanika Perera confirmed on Monday there had been no new cases of measles linked to the Albany Senior High School exposure events.
The two cases announced earlier in May had completed their isolation, and all contacts from the school have finished quarantine and have been released by public health.
Paediatrician Dr Owen Sinclair (Te Rarawa) said because measles is so highly infectious, if there had been spread we’d likely have seen it by now.
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“If [no-one has] symptoms this far down the track, it’s fair to say we did dodge a bullet.”
Sinclair thought this came down to where the virus had landed.
Albany is a more affluent area, with very low rates of crowded housing, relatively higher rates of immunisation, and the school was decile 10.
These were “wealthy people, in good, stable housing and homes”, Sinclair said.
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Two health experts say the fact that measles cropped up in Albany, rather than in South Auckland, likely has a lot to do with the fact that it appears cases were contained.
“If [measles] landed in South Auckland, it might have been a completely different story.
“That was probably the luckiest part of it all.”
University of Auckland Associate Professor, vaccinologist Dr Helen Petousis-Harris agreed, saying the potential impact of measles cases will depend on where it lands geographically, and in what age group.
There was a “lower chance” in a setting like Albany than if measles had seeded in Northland, or South Auckland, or other areas where we have “the lowest immunisation coverage rates”, she said.
Some communities have little more than 30% of tamariki fully vaccinated (such as Māori living in Counties Manukau), Petousis-Harris said.
“That’s where potentially the bomb could go off.”
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Vaccinologist Helen Petousis-Harris said it’s always a possibility that some measles cases ‘fly under the radar’ if people don’t engage with public health, but said we’d expect to have seen new cases by now – if they happened.
In 2019, more than 2100 measles cases were recorded in an outbreak that hit Counties Manukau hardest. The highest number of cases were in Pacific peoples.
Sinclair said measles is only a plane ride away, and multiple countries nearby – such as the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia – have poorly controlled outbreaks.
“It all boils down to one word: immunise.”
At herd immunity levels – requiring 95% of people to be immune against measles – “it can’t spread”.
Te Whatu Ora (Health New Zealand) warned further cases were likely unless more people get immunised.
Dr William Rainger, of the National Public Health Service, said with almost 1000 people exposed, the Albany situation required a “major contact tracing effort”.
Surveillance would continue as usual, but the risk was reduced now all non-immune contacts had been safely released.
“We cannot let our guard slip, though,” Rainger said.
As measles outbreaks were occurring across the globe, “we will see the virus in Aotearoa again sooner or later”.
“Still not enough people in New Zealand are immunised against measles, which means it could just take a single person with the virus to start an outbreak. Now is the time to check if you and your whānau are immune, and to get the vaccine if needed, or if you’re not sure,” he said.
MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccination is free for everyone under 18, and all adults born after January 1, 1969, who are eligible for free healthcare in Aotearoa.