The panel analyse the two biggest Sunday matches, with the Pies looking to continue on their winning ways. Can the Saints get an important away win against the Crows at Adelaide Oval?
COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES (7-1) GWS GIANTS (3-5)
COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES: $1.15 (via bet365)
GWS GIANTS: $5.75 (via Ladbrokes)
MCG, Sunday May 14, 4:40pm AEST
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT
- Collingwood has won 15 of their last 16 matches at the MCG
- Five of GWS’ last six games have been decided by 15 points or less
- The last four Collingwood matches have gone under the total points line
THE MATCHUP
Looking to stay on top of the ladder the 7-1 Pies are the premiership favourites at the moment and continue to find a way to win even in close matches.
Collingwood have come back in games three times this year when they have been down by 15 or more at three quarter time and their elite ability to run all game through the Daicos brothers makes them unstoppable at the moment.
With such a young list, the Giants have surprised many this year, winning three games and got agonisingly close to both the Blues and Bulldogs who are both pushing for finals.
Tom Green and Isaac Cumming have become great young leaders for this Giants side, but with the second worst record of all time at the MCG (6-20) it is hard to back them here.
Five of the last six meetings between these sides have gone under the total points line, the Magpies last four matches have also gone under and their defence led by their elite intercept marking skipper, Darcy Moore, will keep this low scoring.
Brody Mihocek of the Magpies. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images
UNDERRATED PIE
Brody Mihocek is often forgotten about in the media but he continues to score goals each week for the Pies, booting 19 goals in eight games so far this season and kicked three or more majors four times.
With Giants key defender Sam Taylor out injured and up against a very inexperienced GWS side, Mihocek will be able to use his big body to take marks deep in the forward line and go well again at the ‘G like he did last week when kicking five snags.
Giants Stephen Coniglio runs through the centre against Gold Coast. Picture: Phil Hillyard
CONSISTENT GIANT
Stephen Coniglio has always been questioned on his consistency but he has improved his ability to attack, averaging a huge 8.5 score involvements per game and has had 25 or more disposals in his last eight matches.
Cogs’ midfield minutes have increased this season in this very inexperienced Giants side and he is terrific value to bet on in the AFL Fantasy markets, averaging 101 so far this season and has hit 110 points or more three times already.
FIRST GOAL
Bobby Hill has 10 goals already this year and his speed, combined with his elite ability to crumb packs, will give him a chance early to burst into the first goal, against this tall, slow Giants defence.
Beau McCreery of the Magpies lays a tackle against the Giants at the MCG.Picture: Michael Klein
THE PICK
Collingwood have won 15 of their last 16 matches at the MCG, they finish strong each game and their last four matches have gone under the total points line.
GWS have yet to beat any team that is in the current top 10 on the ladder and as shown against the Bulldogs where Tom Green dominated in a loss, they rely too much on their stars.
HOT PIES SAME GAME MULTI
Crisp has had 20+ disposals in eight of his last nine matches at the MCG.
Hogan is amazingly consistent kicking 2+ goals in seven of the eight games this season.
Mihocek is so agile for a tall forward, is averaging 2.4 goals per game and will feast against this young Giants side.
The Pies are electric at the MCG, at 18-3 across the past few seasons and have too much depth for GWS here.
FOUR-LEG HOT PIES SGM: $9.55 (via Ladbrokes)
[all odds as of May 12]
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