Two and a half weeks into their boycott of the Legislature, 10 conservative state senators have apparently disqualified themselves from reelection under new, voter-approved rules meant to punish lawmakers for the walkouts that have plagued Oregon politics in recent years.
The senators, nine Republicans and one Independent, began skipping floor sessions May 3, leaving key bills in limbo. The protest originally alleged that Democrats ignored an obscure procedural law, but Republicans have since targeted bills they disagree with, including House Bill 2002, which would protect and expand reproductive and gender-affirming health care, including for youth.
Activists with the American Civil Liberties Union of Oregon served mock “pink slips” to Senate Republican offices Thursday after six senators — including Senate Minority Leader Tim Knopp — together clocked 10 unexcused absences from the Senate floor, the threshold disallowing lawmakers from serving their next term in office under Measure 113, which a majority of Oregon voters approved last year.
Critics and Democratic supporters said on Twitter on Thursday that the milestone marked the beginning of the end for the conservatives’ political careers. But Knopp and other boycotting senators plan to file a lawsuit in an attempt to expose what they see as legal loopholes in Measure 113 that they believe could allow them to continue holding office.
In the meantime, they’ve cast themselves as stalwart defenders of democracy, launched a fundraising website for a new political action committee and adopted a snappy moniker: “The Oregon 13.” In addition to the ten senators who reached the disqualifying threshold, Republicans David Brock Smith of Port Orford, Dick Anderson of Lincoln City and Fred Girod of Stayton have participated in the walkout but have less than ten unexcused absences.
Knopp told The Oregonian/OregonLive he’s sallying forth with the boycott and doesn’t believe he’s truly disqualified from holding his seat for another term, echoing comments made by Sen. Daniel Bonham, R-The Dalles, and Sen. Brian Boquist, I-Dallas. Those two senators said Measure 113 could violate their First Amendment right to run for office. They also believe the measure may not be in effect without a two-thirds vote of approval in the state Senate.
However, Knopp acknowledged that Republicans’ strategy — seeking a legal fix — could backfire.
“We were willing to take the risk that we wouldn’t be able to run again,” Knopp said.
Some legal experts expressed doubt that Knopp and his colleagues will be able to evade the punishment spelled out in Measure 113. In a memo first reported by Willamette Week, attorneys Misha Isaak and Whitney Brown from the law firm Stoel Rives said a legal challenge would likely fall flat.
Aaron Landau, an attorney with the Oregon-based firm Harrang Long, who specializes in disputes on public law, said it’s generally challenging to convince a court that a law is unconstitutional. Further, he said there are plenty of limits in Oregon law on holding office in the Legislature, including age limits. Lawmakers must be at least 21 years of age.
“Any challenge is going to have to confront that principle,” Landau said.
Knopp is up for reelection in 2024. Even if a lawsuit is successful, his role leading the boycott could cost him votes in purple Deschutes County, a former conservative stronghold that’s seen an influx of liberal voters to Bend.
Knopp won reelection by more than 20 percentage points in 2016 but less than 2% of votes cast in 2020. Non-affiliated voters and Independents together make up about 40% of voters, followed by registered Democrats with 30% and Republicans with 28%.
Chris Stout, an assistant professor of political science at Oregon State University, said the strategy likely makes Republicans “heroes” among their base for stonewalling the abortion and gender-affirming care measure.
Along with protecting that care, the bill would allow minors to receive an abortion without parental knowledge, which current law allows for children age 15 or older. Republicans vehemently oppose the bill. Sen. Kim Thatcher, R-Keizer, sounded her alarm in a recent newsletter titled “They’re targeting your children.”
But Stout said the Republican tactic could alienate Independent and suburban voters for whom the right to an abortion was a critical issue in the 2022 midterms.
“For Independents, this is a risky strategy,” Stout said.
More than 70% of voters in Deschutes County approved Measure 113, compared to 68% statewide.
Eileen Kiely, vice chair of the Deschutes County Democratic Party, said that margin shows local voters are broadly opposed to the walkout. Kiely ran unsuccessfully against Knopp in 2020.
Kiely believes Knopp would struggle to retain his seat next year, even if he was able to run for reelection. She can’t challenge him again because redistricting removed her from the jurisdiction but said the party is mulling strong candidates.
She’s puzzled by his decision-making.
“Tim is not ignorant. I cannot say what his plan is because I look at this and he’s going to lose,” Kiely said.
Phil Henderson, a longtime Republican official and past chair of the Deschutes County Republicans, said he and local conservatives stand firmly behind the boycotting senators.
A new link on the county party website connects to the political action committee, Oregon’s 13 Constitutional Defense Fund. The committee reported raising $1,284 by Friday, although a progressive group complained that it’s failing to report its contributions in a timely manner, the Oregon Capital Chronicle reported.
Henderson said local Republicans support the walkout and will be energized come 2024.
But he’s not privy to the senators’ private meetings at the Legislature and said he doesn’t know what they’re thinking.
“I just don’t know how this ends,” Henderson said.
Knopp said Thursday he doesn’t know how long Republicans will continue to boycott. He said the protest is bigger than House Bill 2002; he would continue to skip floor sessions even if top Democrats agreed to “significantly amend” the bill to remove the parental notification provision.
“This isn’t about one bill, it’s about process and it’s about lots of bills,” Knopp said. “They killed 37 bills in our agenda. So my question would be, why would we be a speedbump on the road to them achieving their agenda?”
Senate President Rob Wagner, D-Lake Oswego, has said repeatedly the bill is off the table. In statements to reporters Thursday, Wagner said he’s willing to negotiate procedural and transparency measures that he said Republicans proposed.
Talks between Wagner, Knopp and top party leaders have so far failed to produce a compromise.
Gov. Tina Kotek told The Oregonian Editorial Board on Friday that she planned to involve herself in conversations at the Legislature to end the walkout, although she said she had no plans to send the Oregon State Police to bring Republican senators back to the floor.
“I will have to be engaged and I’m just starting that conversation with some folks because I’ve run out of patience with what is happening,” Kotek said.
Bonham, a deputy minority leader, told The Oregonian/OregonLive he wants lawmakers to “scrap the entire“ House Bill 2002. But he also said he would not return until Democrats redraft bill summaries — Republicans’ original demand two weeks ago. Senate Republicans argued that bills prepared by nonpartisan staffers are too difficult to read and violate a 1979 law requiring plain English.
-Grant Stringer; [email protected]; @Stringerjourno