Tipperary could revert back to being two Dáil constituencies if the Electoral Commission looking at Dáil boundaries takes account of the numerous submissions made under its constituency review for the next General Election or it could end up being part of Offaly, Waterford or Clare.
There were 14 individual submissions made to the Commission regarding Tipperary. Submissions closed in early May.
However, the submission from Deputy Alan Kelly contains the signatures of thousands of voters from around Newport/Birdhill that were gathered through a petition launched by him and Cllr Fiona Bonfield to take that part of the constituency back from Limerick.
The previous constituency review hived almost 3,000 voters from the Tipperary border with county Limerick into the Limerick City constituency for the 2016 General Election.
Interestingly, only three Oireachtas members from Tipperary – Deputies Kelly and Mattie McGrath and Senator Garrett Ahearn made submissions, and one councillor, Fiona Bonfield.
Not surprisingly, they all want Tipperary to revert to two three-seat constituencies, restoring the old order.
Deputy McGrath concentrates on bringing parts of south Tipperary that were ceded to Waterford back into the county for the Dáil elections.
It is no surprise that Kelly would want Newport, Birdhill and surrounding areas brought back into Tipperary as he cleaned up in that area in the 2016 and 2011 elections.
While he has left pundits pondering whether he will run again or not having been ousted from the party leadership, those Newport votes would come in handy should, say, Cllr Bonfield be chosen as his replacement in the next General Election as she would be guaranteed a sizeable chunk of them as a springboard.
Kelly successfully lobbied last time round for those parts of Lower Ormond that were put into Offaly in 2016 to be returned to Tipperary.
But what the Electoral Commision gave on the one hand was taken away with the other when he lost Newport and its hinterland.
Should the proverbial split be on the agenda and Tipperary becomes two constituencies then the losers could be Sinn Féin as they might not have enough support in the north to win a seat.
Cashel’s Martin Browne would probably benefit from Carrick-on-Suir and that area coming back into south Tipperary, but what the party would gain they could lose in the north.
Their only chance could be to entice Cllr Seamus Morris back into the fold as he is a proven vote-getter in local and national elections.
Fine Gael could have the same difficulties and could face their third General Election without returning a TD for Tipperary.
While Senator Garrett Ahearn would most likely run in the south, the party would need to hunt around for a candidate in the northern end.
Regarding the submissions themselves, three suggest north Tipperary being amalgamated with nearby counties.
Two suggest that a super north Tipperary/Offaly constituency be created while another favours north Tipperary joining parts of east Clare from O’Briensbridge up Lough Derg as far as Mountshannon.
In his submission, Deputy Kelly says that it is “not appropriate” that Newport LEA is currently divided between two Dáil constituencies, a division that also saw the county boundary being breached.
He states that any revision should start with the premise that the entire population of Tipperary be represented by TDs elected in a Tipperary constituency or constituencies.
He points out that as the review’s terms of reference preclude a single six-seat constituency, he and Cllr Bonfield were proposing two three-seat constituencies.
Deputy Mattie McGrath’s submission concentrates on the area south of Clonmel, saying he particularly notes the disenfranchisement of many voters in the southern townslands of Clonmel town, Kilsheelan village and Carrick-on-Suir, which all once formed part of the constituency until the amalgamation of north and south Tipperary in the 2016 General Election.
“Many people south of Clonmel who live in county Waterford go to school, work, and do all of their business in Clonmel town. This is also the case for Carrick-on-Suir and Kilsheelan. By all accounts, these residents are engaged in local issues, community groups and the social fabric of their closest town or village and feel disenfranchised and forgotten about for having lost their opportunity to vote for public representatives here,” he states.
The River Suir acts as a “senseless boundary” for the Dáil constituency, he says, and it is something that many constituents and former constituents have highlighted to him.
“It is my firm belief that this needs to be re-examined,” says Deputy McGrath.
He highlights townslands south of Clonmel town, Kilsheelan village and Carrick-on-Suir town that were once part of the South Tipperary Constituency, including: Kilnamack, Kilmanahan, Knocklofty Road, Russellstown, Kilmacomma, Poulaganogue, Scouthea, Derrinlaur. Gurteen. Kilganey, Glen Upper, Lyrenera, Coolnamuck, Cregg, (Faugheen, Kilkenny Constituency).
Senator Ahearn makes a very short submission in which he states: “As a public representative from county Tipperary I strongly believe that, as part of any boundary review, county Tipperary boundaries should be respected and not exclude any part of the county. If an additional seat is approved for county Tipperary, it should consist of two three-seater constituencies split north / south of the county and not east / west, as this is what the Tipperary electorate have traditionally known.”
One submission from James Doyle suggests that all of north Tipperary be hived off into Offaly and the remainder be included in a Tipperary South constituency.
This was done, in part, for the 2016 General Election, which saw large swathes of Lower Ormond moved into Offaly.
Under this scenario, Cllr Joe Hannigan almost took a seat.
In the end there were just not enough voters in Lower Ormond to sway it his way and the general consensus was that the area suffered by having no local Dáil representative.
This point is taken up by Darina Duffy Kelly in her submission.
“As former chairperson of Rathcabbin Development Association, I felt that the normal chain of communication from councillor to TD to Government did not function properly during 2016-2020, as the Offaly TDs were not heeded by Tipperary County Council on several matters raised in our village such as proper street lighting and construction and repair of wheelchair accessible footpaths,” she says.
Brian Sugrue makes a simple plea to the Commission: “Please have the areas of Birdhill, county Tipperary and Newport, county Tipperary returned once again to the Tipperary constituency. The current alignment places residents of these Tipperary villages/towns in a Limerick constituency, leaving residents effectively disenfranchised.”
Cormac Ó Bric goes in the opposite direction, saying: “County Tipperary, excluding such sections as may need to be added to Offaly to ground an additional Dáil seat for the latter county, far exceeds the maximum threshold for five TDs.”
He also suggests leaving parts of Tipperary in Waterford leaving the remainder of Tipperary as a five-seat constituency.
Aidan O’Brien also asks for Newport to be brought back into Tipperary: “I would like to put on record my desire for Newport county Tipperary to be returned to the Tipperary General Election constituency. I can’t understand why we would be made to vote in Limerick. We don’t know the candidates and we are a tiny portion of their constituency, in a different county.”
Dr Éilís Ní Dhea of Mary Immaculate College suggests moving parts of Clare from O’Briensbridge up to Mountshannon into Tipperary, giving two three-seaters.
Patrick Kelly suggests going back to the situation pre-2016, but taking Ballyphilip,Crohane, Farranrory, Cappagh and Donohill into south Tipperary.
Mark Khan goes against the grain by saying Tipperary should not be divided into two three-seat constituencies: “In previous years much of the Lismore LEA was in south Tipp, and certainly in the Ballymacarbry and Nire Valley areas, the county does not matter bar at GAA matches.”
While he doesn’t think that would solve Waterford’s need for extra votes to get to a five-seater, the other obvious area to take in is Carrick-on-Suir, “a substantial town on the tip of the border with Waterford and more closely connected to Portlaw in Waterford and Piltown in Kilkenny than any town in Tipp”.
The Commission is expected to make its recommendations known in August or September.