Analysing the impressive pool of young goalkeepers at Brighton

As the season draws to an end and transfer speculation mounts, there are perhaps two standout headlines to make on goalkeepers at both Brighton and across the wider Premier League.

The first is the correlation between assessed goalkeeper performance and relegation. We must firstly note that the statistics can be misleading and subject to significant fluctuation.

Jason Steele’s stats took a significant dip with the recent 5-1 defeat to Everton and Robert Sanchez’s numbers this year are more average than his impressive 2021-22 figures.

As such they can only ever be taken as an indication of performance – as show by Ederson, routinely held up as one of the best in the world and playing for the likely champions, surprisingly having the third worst expected goals and save percentage stats in the Premier League.

Having said that, the stats perhaps highlight a stark reality for the current bottom three clubs. Combining FBref.com‘s expected goal performance and the overall save percentage (admittedly two overlapping indicators), there are two goalkeepers significantly below Ederson in those metrics.

They are Gavin Bazunu of Southampton on -16.2 expected goals and a save percentage of 54.2 percent, and Illan Meslier at Leeds United at -12.4 on expected goals and a save percentage of 59.5 percent.

And, whether or not it is co-incidental, they are the two youngest regular keepers in the Premier League. Bazunu is aged 21 and Meslier 23.

It can be argued from a distance (somewhat simplistically), that the single most important decision in the possible relegations of Southampton, Leeds and Leicester have been their choice of goalkeeper.

Whilst no doubt team confidence and overall defensive solidity have contributed, there has been a stark performance reduction at Southampton since Bazunu took over as number one.

Previous Saints goalkeepers Fraser Forster and Alex McCarthy had Premier League career save percentages of 69 percent and 66 percent respectively.

Equally at Leicester City, the departure of Kasper Schmeichel and the decision not to sign a replacement looks a key error.

The second very positive headline from a Brighton perspective has been the quiet development and recruitment of arguably the best group of young goalkeepers in the Premier League.

As the selection battle simmering between Steele and Sanchez increases in drama by the week, the future of those vying for promotion to the senior squad provides an intriguing subplot.

Steele vs Sanchez
Spanish international Sanchez lost his place in March, seemingly because Roberto De Zerbi favours Steele’s execution of the goalkeeper’s role playing out from the back.

Perhaps coincidentally, the decision also closely followed the big error Sanchez made when conceding the equaliser away at Crystal Palace.

Since coming into the team, Steele has (at least until the Everton game) gone from strength to strength in both saves made and footwork.

De Zerbi has constantly hailed the former Sunderland man’s ability on the ball and the stats support De Zerbi’s assertions that Steele is amongst the best in Europe, let alone England.

Steele undoubtedly leads in playing with his feet. As an aside, he has carved out a reputation as a penalty saving expert, keeping out four spot kicks in the FA Cup third round shootout with Newport County in 2021 and three in the Carabao Cup at Charlton back in December.

Lots of Brighton fans have subsequently asked whether in the FA Cup semi final against Manchester United, De Zerbi should have repeated the Netherlands’ approach from the 2014 World Cup of switching goalkeepers for the shootout.

Louis van Gaal famously subbed on former Albion keeper Tim Krul just before penalties against Costa Rica. Krul ended up being the hero as the Dutch progressed to the quarter finals.

Despite Steele’s expertise from 12 yards, Sanchez arguably has the greater shot saving capability and a higher potential performance ceiling.

Initially, Sanchez seemed to respond well to being dropped. When he returned for the win at Chelsea and the trip to Wembley, he performed at a high level.

This supported De Zerbi’s initial contention that Sanchez “reacted very well” and “in a good way” to losing his place, alongside an apparent improvement in playing the ball out from the back.

Recent developments, however, suggest the situation has moved on. De Zerbi explained the absence of Sanchez from the matchday squad at Arsenal by saying: “We spoke two days ago and we reached an agreement that he wasn’t going to come here. He knew he wasn’t going to play.”

Before the trip to Newcastle United, De Zerbi confirmed Sanchez would again be absent because the goalkeeper “wanted it this way.”

This is a big shift from what De Zerbi recently told to Andy Naylor and The Athletic when stating he wanted both Sanchez and Steele at the club for 2023-24.

“I think and I hope they stay for another year, I don’t want to put one as the first keeper and the other second,” De Zerbi said.

“Jason is playing very well, but Robert played very well at Stamford Bridge and Wembley too. We will see. It isn’t a big problem, it’s a nice problem when you have the possibility to choose and make a mistake.”

“If the level (of the goalkeepers) is the same or very close you can choose, if the level is very different it’s difficult to make a mistake.”

Sanchez’s absence from the squad now suggests that if a top team comes in with an offer between £25 and £30 million, Brighton might be tempted to offload an unhappy player.

Such a figure would represent a significant drop in his value compared to the start of the season, when one might have speculated the Albion could have fetched nearer £50 million for Sanchez’s services.

If Sanchez does leave, the simplest option would presumably be to sign a new goalkeeper as a replacement. Brighton have been linked with 24-year-old Liverpool reserve Caoimhin Kelleher.

There may or may not be any truth in the link to Kelleher, but his ability at playing out from the back would certainly make him attractive to De Zerbi. The continued absence of Sanchez will only add credibility to the rumours.

The braver option for Brighton would be to have faith in the potential of Carl Rushworth, James Beadle and Kjell Scherpen.

Performance reports and Rushworth’s statistics suggest he has been playing to a higher level in League One at Lincoln City this season than Sanchez achieved at Rochdale the year before he replaced Maty Ryan as Brighton number one.

As already noted, Rushworth is not the only good young goalkeeper waiting in the wings at the Albion. So what are the chances of those goalkeepers making the jump from being out on on loan or playing Premier League 2 to the Brighton first team?

Carl Rushworth
21-year-old Rushworth signed from FC Halifax Town in 2018 and has spent the last two seasons successfully on loan at League Two Walsall in 2021-22 before joining Lincoln for the current campaign.

He is a regular member of the England Under 21 squad, although to date only third choice. The obvious option for next year would be a loan stepping up another level, either the Championship or somewhere abroad, with the view of challenging for a place at Brighton in 2024-25.

However, his impressive stats and the possibility of Sanchez leaving present the intriguing option of Rushworth’s challenge starting next season.

So what does the player expect? The Lincoln website quote Rushworth: “I have really enjoyed my time at the club and living in the city and I think getting away with England recently shows I’ve performed well too.”

“I have just come back from a camp and it was good to be in a different environment where you can get new opinions and take that on board. That will help me push on with Lincoln to finish strong and return to Brighton in the summer.”

His manager at Lincoln, Mark Kennedy, has been fulsome in his praise of Rushworth: “He’s phenomenal. I’m a big fan of James Trafford” (on loan at Bolton Wanderers from Manchester City and keeping Rushworth out of the England Under 21 team).

“I think those two are arguably the two best keepers in League One. Carl has had an outstanding season, I think he’s a grade A player. I spoke to England last week about him, and I can’t compliment him enough.”

“We’re really lucky to have Carl, and Brighton have a real talent on their hands. I think goalkeeping is a very unique position, but I think he’s got everything, he’s top class.”

“His temperament, his agility, he’s so quick, lightening quick. One thing he’s done brilliantly this year is that he comes and catches crosses for fun.”

“Short game, he’s really good over short distances I think he’s got to get better over long distances, but you don’t have to worry about that in the Premier League”.

Kjell Scherpen
23-year-old Scherpen joined Brighton for an undisclosed fee in 2021 – reported to be £4.2 million – and at 6’8, he is one of the tallest goalkeepers in Europe.

Scherpen has since gone on loan, first at KV Oostende in Belgium and this season with Vitesse Arnhem in the Netherlands.

Injuries have perhaps impacted his progress which has been mixed to date, leaving his stats looking below those of both Rushworth and Beadle.

Scherpen has, however, received a call up to the senior Netherlands squad for UEFA Nations League fixtures when Krul was ruled out with injury. This indicates progress and that he is well thought of in his home nation.

At Vitesse this season, Scherpen has been a regular in the Eredivisie since recovering from a knee injury. He has recorded five clean sheets, conceding 29 goals in 22 games.

A Dutch media report revealed Vitesse do not have an option to make Scherpen’s stay permanent and he is therefore certain to return to the Amex.

The same article went onto say Scherpen was realistic enough to know he would not be playing for Brighton in the Premier League in 2023-24.

Speaking to ESPN, Scherpen himself seemed to indicate he expects a spell in the Championship next season: “The Championship seems very nice to me. Now I see Zian Flemming (at Millwall), for example, too. That’s great how it works.”

“Every stadium is packed and has a great atmosphere. I think you play 46 games a season. That would be a nice step for my continuity in England.”

“Also, how we lived there and how it was for a few days last week. That just feels really good. And yet different from the Netherlands. We’re very much in the right place there. So, I hope I can play a year in the Championship and then look up.”

Scherpen’s deal at Brighton reportedly expires in 2024. Brighton therefore have a decision to make on whether to cash in from his sale this summer or extend his contract and send him out on loan again.

James Beadle
18-year-old Beadle signed for Brighton from Charlton Athletic in 2022. After a spell playing for the Albion’s Under 21s in PL2, Beadle moved on loan to Crewe Alexandra in January 2023.

Beadle has played for England throughout the age groups and this week celebrated a call up to England’s squad for the upcoming under-20 World Cup in Argentina, indicating his standing as one of best young goalkeepers in the country.

His spell at Crewe cemented that opinion, even though it was cut short after only nine games by an ankle injury which forced him to return to Brighton.

The Crewe website says the club will do everything possible to bring Beadle back on loan next season. But according to manager Lee Bell, they they will face stiff competition from clubs in higher divisions for his signature.

“We will do everything possible to get him here next season, but he will definitely have suitors from higher up. We’ve already had conversations with Brighton, and I’ve explained what we can offer James.”

“They have plans for how they’d like him to progress, so we will have to see. Brighton are a great club to work with, they have helped us massively.”

“They just want what is best for their young players, which is refreshing. There will be competition, and James and Brighton will have to make a decision.”

“James is going to have an excellent career. I know the club thinks really highly of him, and they are right to. It’s something we will keep a close eye on going into next season.”

Tom McGill
23-year-old McGill has seemingly been acting as Brighton’s third choice this season, sitting on the bench in the absence of Sanchez.

The former England Under 17 international recently opted to play for Canada going forwards and was rewarded with a call up to their most recent squad.

McGill has had limited first team experience on loan, with an unfortunate head injury contributing to only one appearance at Crawley Town in 2020. His other spells have all come at non league clubs.

With his contract believed to be near its end, the club will presumably be reviewing whether an extension makes sense given the perhaps greater potential of other young keepers.

And even if offered a contract extension, McGill may yet turn it down after considering whether he would be better off seeking first team opportunities elsewhere.

Killian Cahill
Beadle is not the only notable teenage goalkeeper at Brighton. 19-year-old Killian Cahill joined the club in 2022 from Shamrock Rovers and has recently been impressing in the improving Albion Under 21s side in the second half of the season.

On moving to England, Cahill was clear on his objective to become a Premier League goalkeeper. He said: “It’s amazing to sign here. From the age of four or five, the goal was to be in the Premier League and it’s great to be a step closer to that goal.”

“You go from playing with your local team to Shamrock Rovers, and there I was playing and working to get to this level. But when you take that step to a Premier League club, it does feel a bit surreal; you’re as close to the Premier League as you can get at this age. Now it’s about making that step up.”

Having impressed in PL2, a loan spell will surely be under consideration for Cahill next season to give him a taste of first team football.

Other young Brighton goalkeepers

Fynn Talley (20), Toby Bull (19), Tommy Reid (18), Hugo Fisher (18) Lorenz Ferdinand (16 and son of Rio) are also on the Brighton books, with Reid the current Under 18s goalkeeper.

Brighton goalkeepers in 2023-24
The table below relies on the easily available published stats (FBref.com et al) and inevitably has only partial validity for a number of reasons.

Save percentage for example is clearly dependent on the quality of chances the opponent has. A goalkeeper is more likely to keep out half chances and efforts from outside the box than one-on-ones.

You can therefore argue that the save percentage of goalkeepers at a club playing the sort of higher risk football Brighton have adopted will be lower, as opponents can create strong chances playing on the break. The Everton defeat is evidence of this.

There are three notable stats below. Overall save percentage speaks for itself. The FBref.com expected goals / goals prevented stat seeks to measure the goals conceded against opposition chances (Rushworth’s positive figure for example shows he has conceded 2.7 goals less than he was expected to).

Pass completion rate meanwhile is important given the heavy emphasis on the ability DeZerbiBall places on its goalkeepers to start attacks, which has ultimately led to Steele replacing Sanchez.

The table shows the 2022-23 stats for Sanchez and Steele alongside the three goalkeepers out on loan. Also included are Sanchez’s numbers for his spell at Rochdale in 2019-20, the season before he broke into the Brighton team for comparison to Rushworth, Scherpen and Beadle.

 

Things to consider when looking at these numbers are that there is more limited information in the lower leagues and that Steele and Beadle both have limited sample sizes.

The numbers can also be subject to significant fluctuation and there is uncertainly on the accuracy, particularly of the goals prevented statistic.

But we can still use these stats to make some judgements about where Brighton stand in the goalkeepers department going into 2023-24.

The first question now looks to be whether there are transfer offers that would meet the club’s valuation and lead to Sanchez leaving.

Even with his ups and downs this season and recent omission, Sanchez still looks to have a very high potential. Because he broke through so early, it is easy to forget he is only 25 and still open to improvement.

Rushworth would appear to be at least as ready for Premier League football as Sanchez was when promoted to number one, at the same age coming off the back of a League One loan spell.

At this stage, Rushworth’s performances put him slightly ahead of Scherpen. Therefore a Steele and Rushworth combination looks conceivable in 2023-24, although presumably a further assessment will be made when all the goalkeepers return in the summer.

The selections of Beadle – with outstanding stats for his age – to the England U20 World Cup squad and Scherpen to the last Dutch squad show they cannot be discounted. Where Scherpen fits in may be decided by what happens with his contract situation.

If both Steele and Sanchez were to remain Brighton goalkeepers next season – as was the original preference of De Zerbi – then Championship (or equivalent level in Europe) loans might well be a good move to further develop and assess Rushworth and Scherpen.

The struggles of Bazunu at Southampton and Meslier at Leeds are perhaps salutary and indicative of the difficulties and risks which come with younger keepers. It might be enough to counter-balance the idea of promoting Rushworth, who otherwise looks such an exciting prospect.

It is worth mentioning Christian Walton at this point. Four years ago, one might have expected Walton to be Brighton number one in 2023 instead of plying his trade at League One Ipswich Town.

There was that notable sliding doors moment against Chelsea in a August 2020 pre-season friendly. Walton injured an ankle when ahead of Sanchez and Steele as the nearest challenger to then-number one Ryan.

Had Walton not been so unfortunate, it could well have been he rather than Sanchez who was given the opportunity by Graham Potter to replace Ryan when the Australian international’s form dipped.

Walton is now 27 and reports on him along with his numbers in a promotion winning Ipswich side are impressive, including him winning the Golden Glove in League One this season with 23 clean sheets. He should be well suited for the Championship in 2023-24.

And what of those links with Kelleher? Although talented, Liverpool apparently value him at £20 million. Given the promise and level of the young goalkeepers already at Brighton, one could question whether buying another under the age of 25 for such an amount makes any sense.

One alternative option would involve looking at an experienced goalkeeper nearing the end of his career – such as 34-year-old Martin Dubravka – to come and compete with Steele for a season or two, whilst Rushworth, Scherpen and Beadle complete their development.

Whatever happens with Sanchez, Steele or any of the other goalkeepers for that matter, it can be credibly argued that Brighton already have their future numbers one for the next decade lined up. It is another example of why the Albion’s player development pathway is world leading.

Peter Finn