It’s hard to deny the Bombers and their quest for September action now after their second half blitz against Carlton. See all Jay Clark’s likes and dislikes.
Week two of the bye rounds started on Thursday night and will finish with a Monday blockbuster between Collingwood and Melbourne.
But there are already lots of big talking points.
Check out Jay Clark’s hits and misses from round 13.
LIKES
1. Adam Saad would have found it tough.
As Essendon charged home over Carlton on Sunday night, it was clear the Bombers were on the march to a finals berth.
The Carlton defender left Essendon to join the Blues three years ago, but Essendon is the club on the rise at 8-5 with the easiest run home in the league to finals.
Coach Brad Scott has played all expectation down smartly, but the reality is the Bombers have upside, and a stronger competitive edge than recent years.
For the Bombers, the blue sky is evident.
Nic Martin might be the most underrated player in the league, Peter Wright fired upon his return, the Bombers have a strong defensive system, and there is a clear vision the team believes in.
Zach Merrett may have only had 15 touches late in the last, but the Bombers can win without him.
Darcy Parish and Mason Redman continue to be talked about as leading free agents, but why would they leave?
No chance.
This was always going to be a sliding doors game for the two clubs and potentially, for all the Carlton hype, Essendon may have skated past.
2. The Roos’ handling of youngster
North Melbourne deserves some credit for the way it has handled Tarryn Thomas this season.
The man who still faces a court appearance over allegations of threatening to distribute an intimate image was at the crossroads two months ago when the club removed him from its AFL and VFL programs over his off-field behaviour.
And when he initially failed to show signs of progress in his counselling, the club refused to budge, keeping him out.
In his slow return to the team, Thomas worked part-time for a cleaning business. Perhaps it was to teach him a lesson about appreciating the opportunity at hand.
But over the past two weeks there have been some encouraging signs from the silken midfielder.
His fitness is clearly still a long way down but he has the polish and class which can be a weapon in this burgeoning Kangaroos’ engine room.
He is contracted for one more season and needs to perform on and off the field to keep his spot at the club.
But there is some new optimism he may still be able to have a strong AFL career despite his troubles over the past 12 months.
3. Turning negative into positive?
North Melbourne might be better off making the hard call on Ben McKay.
The out-of-contract key defender is one of the game’s leading free agents and is attracting interest from Port Adelaide.
Clearly, the Roos’ fan base want McKay to stay, considering he has shown signs of being an elite interceptor at times.
But if he can attract an offer in the vicinity of $800,000 a year, North Melbourne could be compensated with pick 3 for the stopper’s move across the border.
Considering the players taken at pick 3 in recent years, including Harry Sheezel, Luke Jackson, Izak Rankine and Finn Callaghan, it seems a rare opportunity to jag another 200-game jet for the Roos’ rebuild.
Port Adelaide would love another key defender and McKay would slip nicely into the goalsquare to be part of the continued premiership push at the Power from next season.
Durability has been a concern for McKay, who has played 61 games over his seven-and-a-half seasons.
4. Hawks no easybeats
There were fears Hawthorn might be the biggest easybeat in the league after the club suffered consecutive thrashings in the first two rounds of the season.
Big losses to Essendon and Sydney fanned speculation the club was tanking.
But this past month has been a triumph for Sam Mitchell and his Hawks.
They beat West Coast (by 116 points), toppled St Kilda (by 10), got smashed by Port Adelaide last week (by 55) and then claimed a huge scalp against Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday.
The players’ growing self-belief is one thing, but the attacking game plan is another, fuelling confidence among the Hawthorn faithful.
Early on this season Hawthorn was taking some attacking options by foot.
But over the past two months, between rounds 6-13, Hawthorn has gone into handball mode, averaging the lowest kick to handball ratio (1.04) in the league.
Over that period the Hawks are +345 metres gained, almost double the next best in Richmond (+182 metres), Collingwood (+142) and GWS Giants (+127).
The high handball game plan is a Richmond mantra former Tiger assistants Craig McRae and Adam Kingsley have adopted at their new clubs.
It is an easier skill than kicking, forces the opposition to commit to pressure acts, and helps create more one-on-ones in the forward half.
Hawthorn has winnable games coming up against Gold Coast on Sunday, Carlton, GWS Giants, North Melbourne and Richmond.
5. Can Saints spoil next milestone party?
St Kilda crashed Lance Franklin’s party and will set its sights on ruining the celebrations for Trent Cotchin at the MCG this Saturday night.
Tigers’ interim coach Andrew McQualter said “we sometimes forget how good a footballer” Cotchin is heading into his 300th match.
But there was a timely reminder in the upset win over Fremantle on Saturday night when Cotchin had a season-high 28 touches, 15 contested possessions and seven clearances in the win in the west.
While there were some doubts about his ability to contribute forward at the start of the season, his move back into the midfield reaped rich rewards for McQualter with the big win over the Dockers.
But in reality Cotchin’s legacy is clear, anyway.
The premiership captain had a Joel Selwood-style impact on Punt Rd after one of their lowest ebbs at the end of 2016 when Cotchin became a more selfless and impressive, inspirational player in the heart of the Richmond engine room to lead the club to three premierships.
Geelong champion Steve Johnson was full of praise for Cotchin’s transformation.
“He will go down as a legend of their club,” Johnson said on Triple M.
“He has had a massive impact in regards to the way they were able to turn it around, him and Dusty (Martin).
“I always thought Trent Cotchin was an individual. He racked up touches, liked the short kicks, the one-twos.
“But when he went away from that and was willing to accept 10 less possessions for the betterment of the team and went harder defensively, he got players on his back by playing that way.”
DISLIKES
1. Maybe the Carlton forward connection needs a rethink.
It was a tough watch for the Blues’ fans who struggled as Carlton booted 6.16 (52) on Sunday night in a repeat of all the club’s headaches this season.
Spearhead Harry McKay might not think he needs an external goal kicking coach, but perhaps it is worth the shot?
Steve Johnson, Matthew Lloyd?
Carlton fans will feel like they’re banging their heads up against the same brick wall.
The early snapped shot from McKay against Essendon was kicked skinny, and it barely made the distance, setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The Blues have underachieved massively this season, and you feel for coach Michael Voss.
But the Blues had 15 more inside 50s and still got comprehensively beaten on Sunday night.
It means change for the club in some fashion. Maybe the ball movement. Teams are kicking short, and hand balling more these days. The long kick is out.
That will all be played out over the back half of the season but Carlton, and McKay, can’t continue to do the same thing.
And Voss will know it.
2. Are tough conversations needed?
Chris Fagan played a big hand in getting Jack Gunston up to Brisbane.
But this week there are sure to be tough conversations.
It would not have been easy for Gunston on Saturday up against James Sicily and his former team at the MCG.
But Gunston’s six disposals and two score involvements were part of a tough day which continues a lean month.
He has kicked only one goal over the past month and 11 majors from 11 matches so far this season.
Gunston has averaged 9.7 disposals this season, a low for his magnificent career.
Fagan was keen to add Gunston’s hard run and premiership experience to the forward line, but he needs the goalkicker to find some form.
It is not the only selection query for the clash against Sydney Swans at the Gabba.
Defender Daniel Rich, who was subbed out with a calf issue, has dropped off this year, averaging 19 disposals, the lowest since 2018 and 11 uncontested possessions, the lowest since 2013.
Brisbane still can’t be trusted at the MCG, where it the club has won only one match from the past 13.
3. Criticising history
It is harsh to pot Carlton and Essendon for wheeling out their combined 32 premiership cups for their pre-game rivalry celebration at the MCG on Sunday night.
The two clubs want to make the game an annual fixture, and for the first time brought out all of their silverware to celebrate their past successes.
There were plenty of knockers for the concept on social media, saying the clubs were spending too much time looking in the rear vision mirror.
The last time either club saluted was when Essendon lifted the 2000 trophy.
But surely there is nothing wrong with the clubs being proud of their premiership teams and providing fans a look of the cups considering they are the two most successful in AFL-VFL history.
Look forward to the Carlton vs Essendon clash being locked in every King’s Birthday eve to help draw a blockbuster crowd and continue their passionate dislike for each other.
4. Umps ignoring Toby
Hopefully the umpires finally recognise Toby Greene’s on-field influence this season with some long-awaited votes in the Brownlow Medal.
Greene was excellent again on Sunday night in the Giants’ win over North Melbourne, unsurprisingly kicking a blinding goal out of mid-air in the goalsquare from the long kick in from Stephen Coniglio in the third term.
Greene finished with 26 disposals and three goals and again looked a constant threat alongside forgotten man Jesse Hogan, and will contend for the three votes from the whistleblowers.
But he has been often overlooked in the Brownlow Medal voting in the past, perhaps because he was someone who has given the umpires a tough time over the journey.
But he is a more mature person and leader after taking over the club captaincy at the start of the season.
And so far, so good in 2023.
Over his career, Greene has polled only 52 votes in the Brownlow Medal at an average of less than five votes per season.
But after slotting his 32nd goal of the season on Sunday it is surely time the umpires gave more recognition to the Giants’ new inspirational leader.
5. No respite coming for Eagles
West Coast can’t expect a priority draft pick at the end of a season which has gone from bad to worse.
The Eagles have won only three of their past 39 matches and have an average losing margin of 64 points over the past 12 defeats.
But there can be no free handouts from the AFL to a team which won the premiership only five years ago and handed over three high draft picks for former Geelong midfielder Tim Kelly.
And not after an impending overhaul of the high-performance department at season’s end which could help get this long injury list back in good order for next year, replenishing the side with some missing senior talent.
Last year North Melbourne was granted two extra picks (future second-round and future third-round) which it had to trade for mature-age players as well as two extra list spots.
Rival clubs raised their eyebrows at the draft concessions.
The Kangaroos and Eagles each won two games last season, but West Coast has plummeted to new depths this year with only one win and a percentage of 51.4 after another thrashing from Adelaide.
The Eagles are 18th for points for and points against, 18th for points for turnovers and 18th for moving the ball from the back 50m to the forward 50m.
Coach Adam Simpson forecast massive change to the list on Saturday night. But a priority pick shouldn’t be part of the plans.
They’ll perhaps have to trade Andrew Gaff, Jack Darling or Elliot Yeo instead, if there is interest in them.
“We are going to transition this list pretty quickly, it is going to be one of the youngest lists in a year or so in the comp,” Simpson said.
“And then we want to get some picks at the top end as well if we can.”
Originally published as The Tackle: Jay Clark names his likes, dislikes from round 13