The focus on the Portland Trail Blazers’ draft dilemma this week would have you believe that the franchise is facing a decision of Bowie-Jordan or Oden-Durant proportions.
This isn’t just Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. It’s the choice between drafting the pick and trading it for the veteran help after which Damian Lillard has long lusted. And, to that end, it may just be the choice between trading the pick or trading Lillard.
Psst, Joe Cronin. Let me help you out.
Draft the pick.
Chatter around All-NBA forward Jaylen Brown and burgeoning star Mikal Bridges has seemingly gone nowhere. Short of a player like that, who could help the Blazers win now and as well as anchor the future, passing up the opportunity to draft Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller for immediate relief always felt like a short-sighted risk.
Draft the pick.
If contending for a title next season is Lillard’s sole objective, then he has to recognize that was never likely going to be in Portland, regardless of what they did with No. 3. The Blazers are not one player away from pushing Denver in the West.
Draft the pick.
A tweet from Dame whisperer Chris Haynes on Father’s Day about this being the summer he might actually ask out of Portland does not mean Lillard is really on the verge of leaving. But it makes you sit up and pay attention. Maybe it’s just Lillard rattling the Blazers‘ cage, maybe he really does want to move on. But Cronin can’t be pressured into trading Portland’s most valuable asset in years just because Lillard is feeling the weight of his own basketball mortality.
Draft the pick.
Whatever value the No. 3 pick had to its suitors, the price goes down if general managers around the league believe the Blazers are desperate to placate Lillard. The Blazers shouldn’t want to trade Lillard, but they can’t be afraid to lose him either.
Draft the pick.
Lillard is the most important Blazers player of my lifetime. He has connected with the city and lifted the franchise in a way no one has since Bill Walton. He can play basketball here as long as he wants. If he no longer wants that, if he’s ready to move on, it would be a devastating day for the city and the Blazers fanbase. But it wouldn’t be the end of Blazers basketball and his departure in this moment would, ironically, leave them well positioned for the future.
Draft the pick.
Maybe I’m a sucker, but I still think Lillard could be sold on Henderson, an NBA-ready defender with an uncommon competitive drive. And on Miller, a 6-foot-9 small forward who would also help the Blazers defensively, handles the ball well and would have been the best three-point shooter on many NBA teams last season. Drafting young and aggressively pursuing upgrades with their other available assets, including Anfernee Simons, would put the Blazers back in the playoff mix next season.
Draft the pick.
This is the Blazers’ highest lottery pick since they took Oden, meaning it’s their best chance in 15 years to draft superstar talent. It’s too hard to get talented players to Portland to pass on a player who could anchor the franchise for the next decade or longer.
Draft the pick.
If the Blazers were drafting fifth or sixth or seventh, this wouldn’t even be a question. Cronin does not have the benefit of waiting on a project. But jumping into the top three of this particular lottery is the kind of gift that should not be over-scrutinized. Henderson and Miller are both far more polished than Shaedon Sharpe was a year ago, and Lillard loves Sharpe.
Draft the pick.
If the Nuggets‘ dominant playoff run taught us anything, it’s the importance of patience. There are far more examples of teams flaming out after pushing all their chips in for another star than of those superteams actually winning at a high level. In fact, the connective thread of the teams that have succeeded has been LeBron James. Are the Blazers trading for LeBron?
Draft the pick.
The other recent exception is Toronto’s title run in 2019 when the Raptors traded DeMar DeRozan for one year of Kawhi Leonard. The Raptors benefited from a slew of injuries to the mid-dynasty Warriors, including Kevin Durant’s ruptured Achilles.
Not to discount what Toronto did. The Raptors gave themselves a chance. What is the path for the Blazers to do the same?
Draft the pick.
If a Leonard-caliber player was trying to force his way out, the No. 3 pick would be enough to get a deal done. But to coax a team off of a player they are happy with? It just doesn’t really work that way.
Draft the pick.
The Athletic reported last week that New Orleans was interested in moving into the top three to draft Henderson. That would be great news for Portland … if the Pelicans were interested in trading All-Star Brandon Ingram. I’ve been told that will not happen. Instead, Zion Williamson could be on the table. Williamson has played in 114 games in four seasons.
Williamson is a player with spectacular potential as well as potential for a spectacular flameout. Sorry, but I’m not taking another chance on another big man with foot injuries in Portland.
Draft the pick.
Besides, New Orleans GM David Griffin should really be angling for Charlotte’s No. 2 pick if he wants to be sure he’ll get Henderson. That would likely knock the Blazers’ trade leverage down a peg, since Henderson is regarded as a better prospect than Miller, even though Charlotte might have a preference for the rangy Alabama forward.
Draft the pick.
Miller’s role in the Jan. 15 shooting death of Jamea Jonae Harris in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, is deeply alarming. But it is not disqualifying. Authorities testified he delivered the gun used in the killing to a teammate the night of the murder but have said he did not commit a crime. Miller will continue to face questions about his character and judgment, but also deserves the benefit of due process.
The NBA made it clear this week how it views “reckless and irresponsible behavior with guns” when it suspended Ja Morant for 25 games.
I deeply hope Brandon Miller does more with his second chance than Ja did with his.
Draft the pick.
There is a lack of decisiveness to drafting a possible future franchise pillar while Lillard is still chasing team success. It is a gamble, but not as much of one as leveraging its future on a tight window with a trade that might not even exist. Washington trading Lillard analogue Bradley Beal to Phoenix in what amounts as a salary dump should make fans nervous about what it would look like if the Blazers ever had to trade Lillard.
Draft the pick.
Banking on the potential of Henderson or Miller won’t make the Blazers title contenders next season, but they are good enough to change the trajectory of the franchise immediately. The Blazers, at least, won’t be stagnant. That should be good enough for all the principals to get on board. But if it isn’t …
Trade Dame.
— Bill Oram | [email protected] | Twitter: @billoram