Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s ‘Daily Ramblings’.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber
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The Prospects Report was released June 1. Updated just a few days ago with its annual Mock Draft. You can order all of the 2023-24 fantasy products in the shop here (or subscribe!). There will also be a French version of our upcoming Fantasy Guide for our French-speaking readers!
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1. Congratulations to the Vegas Golden Knights for winning the Stanley Cup. I don’t know that many had the Golden Knights taking it all at the start of the playoffs (at least none of our writers did), but this was a team that had the best record in the Western Conference while finishing fourth overall. Not exactly out of nowhere, although they weren’t nearly as trendy a pick as the Oilers in the Western Conference.
I get that the Golden Knights aren’t a well-liked team among some in the hockey community because of their relatively short wait for a Stanley Cup. After all, the league granted them relatively generous expansion rules, and they rewarded loyalty to some of the original “misfits” by upgrading them for shinier toys. But credit to the Golden Knights for grabbing talent from other teams that didn’t seem to be able to recognize it on their own rosters, which set a high standard for this team right off the hop. Not taking anything away from this win, but getting to the Stanley Cup Final in their first season still seems to me like the greater accomplishment than winning it in their sixth season. (jun16)
2. Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault finished second in playoff scoring with 25 points in 22 games. His 13 goals also tied Leon Draisaitl for the playoff goal lead (someone finally caught up to Draisaitl!) I’m not using playoff performance as a reason to provide a big boost to Marchessault’s fantasy value, since he’s now 32 years old and has consistently been between the 0.7 to 0.9 PTS/GP range over the past five seasons.
If it doesn’t seem like Marchessault is over 30, remember that he was undrafted and took the long path to the NHL. In fact, his first NHL game was with Columbus in 2012-13, which was his only game with the Blue Jackets and very few likely remember. Then on to Tampa Bay, then to Florida, and you probably know by now how he got to Vegas. It’s amazing how these storylines write themselves.
Marchessault might have more name recognition as a result of his accomplishment, so the more casual hockey fans in your fantasy league might reach to draft him. In the right spot, he is a player who provides decent offense along with high shot totals. He’s taken at least 3 SOG/GP during his six seasons in Vegas, and he also led the playoffs with 80 SOG. Oh, and he also led the playoffs with a plus-17. (jun16)
3. Adin Hill… starting goalie next season? I’m going to say timeshare (1A or 1B) option, whether that be Vegas or elsewhere. Remember Logan Thompson? He still has two years left on his contract, so at this point he’s more likely to be back in Vegas than Hill next season. Not to take away from Hill, but if Antti Niemi or Jordan Binnington can lead a team to a Stanley Cup, then a cup win shouldn’t suddenly elevate Hill to top-tier status.
Hill’s 27 regular-season games played for Vegas this season is a career high, so he’s been pushed down the depth chart on multiple teams. His playoff run should mean that at least receives more respect among NHL teams now. Over the past five seasons he’s never had a GAA above 2.80 or a SV% below .900, and that included some dreadful Arizona and San Jose teams. That in itself deserves consideration. (jun16)
4. In his first-ever trip to the playoffs, Jack Eichel led all playoff scorers with 26 points in 22 games. He also led the playoffs with 20 assists, with no other player recording more than 14 assists. You could argue that he deserved the Conn Smythe over Marchessault, but I think we’re splitting hairs here. I’d give him a very minor increase in fantasy value, but the Vegas cup win was a true team effort and not carried by Eichel the way other teams might expect their star players to perform most of the heavy lifting. (jun16)
5. Eichel clearly re-found his top gear in 2022-23:
He had his dips through the year, and the power-play scoring left something to be desired, but it really does seem as if Eichel regained his touch. It was certainly on full display through the postseason. There are concerns for fantasy, given how Vegas runs their team, but if they maintain a 65% top PP usage for Stone-Eichel-Marchessault-Stephenson, it could change things a bit. (jun15)
6. I’ll take the opportunity to follow up on a few rambles that I made yesterday:
I may have hinted that the Golden Knights didn’t make any huge additions at the trade deadline, but I completely forgot about Ivan Barbashev, considering how much of an impact he made during the playoffs. Only four Vegas players finished with more playoff points than Barbashev, whose 18 points in 22 games fit the profile of solid deep sleeper in playoff pools. He also finished the regular season with a solid 16 points in 23 games after being traded from St. Louis. I’m sure the Golden Knights would love to have him back, but I’m not so sure they have the cap space.
Barbashev’s playoff performance has set himself up for a big payday in a relatively weak free agent crop, but I don’t think that his fantasy value will change a bunch (depending on where he lands). He profiles as a middle-six scorer who has plus value in bangers leagues because of his strong hits totals (at least 150 hits over each of the past two seasons). His offense is limited because of a low shot rate, as he has never taken more than 1.5 SOG/GP in any of his seven seasons. As well, he has never been a regular first-unit power-play option in either St. Louis or Vegas. (jun17)
7. The other follow-up item is on Mark Stone. On the 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman suggested that Stone could be “in and out” of the lineup going forward because of his chronic back issue. This smells like Peter Forsberg near the end of his career, or even the “perpetual game-time decision” of a young Roope Hintz a few years ago. In other words, Stone could be a high-maintenance player on your fantasy team. If you have your finger on your lineup throughout the day, then that might work. But if you’re a “set and forget” manager, then forget it. Add to that the frustration of another trip to IR potentially being just around the corner, and I’m back to my original stance on Stone. In other words, it’s highly unlikely that I keep him for next season or draft him in the top 100. (jun17)
8. With the Panthers’ Cinderella run finally reaching an end, the full details of their injuries are starting to surface. Winning a Stanley Cup seems to be as much of a war of attrition as it is a hockey tournament.
Aaron Ekblad was playing through a multitude of injuries, so it should be no surprise that he is expected to miss at least the start of training camp as he will be recovering from shoulder surgery. Ekblad also played through a broken foot (Game 2 of Round 1), an oblique tear, and the OTHER shoulder dislocated during the playoffs. This is getting close to Black Knight from Monty Python stuff. Ekblad missed only one game during the playoffs, and that was in the first round. Check back for further updates during the summer that may affect his preseason draft ranking, as he may not be ready for the start of the season.
Eetu Luostarinen broke his tibia during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final, which is the reason he did not play in the Stanley Cup Final. Having broken my tibia before, I can tell you that skating on it isn’t going to work, even though he tried (walking was impossible for me). He probably should be ready for training camp, although he will need much of the offseason to heal.
9. I wrongfully assumed that Matthew Tkachuk would play in Game 5 no matter what because hey, a Stanley Cup was on the line. However, a broken sternum is a serious and painful injury. I don’t know whether that injury could cut into next season, but I have moved Tkachuk onto the injured list on the latest Top 100 Roto Rankings.
You may have already seen the Kevin Weekes report that Brandon Montour likely needs shoulder surgery and could be out three months. Assuming that’s three months from today, Montour would have just enough recovery time to be ready for training camp. (jun16)
10. Looking at the Florida page at Cap Friendly, their defense could look very different at the start of next season. Besides Aaron Ekblad, who could miss the start of the 2023-24 season, their remaining defensemen have either one year remaining (Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling, Josh Mahura) or are UFAs. I could see the Panthers extending Montour and Forsling over the summer. Regardless, it’s something to keep an eye on.(jun17)
11. Aleksander Barkov has played a similar number of games over the past two seasons (67 and 68), which is why he’s on the Band-Aid Boy Trainee list. His production fell by 10 points after his point-per-game average dropped from 1.31 PTS/GP in 2021-22 to 1.15 PTS/GP in 2022-23. Yet he was bound to drop from that career-high point-per-game number, given his career averages over the past 10 seasons.
Barkov’s drop in points came all in the form of goals, as he fell from a career-high 39 goals in 2021-22 to 23 goals in 2022-23. Some bad luck in the shooting department contributed, as he dropped from a career high 18.2% to 11.0%, his lowest total in five years. Something closer to his near-14% career average should mean that he is pushing for 30 goals. (jun17)
12. The first buyout of the season took place on Friday, and it was a big one! Just as the buyout window opened, the Canucks decided to part ways with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and his albatross contract. Ekman-Larsson had four more years with an $8.25 million cap hit per season.
I didn’t think the Canucks would buy out Ekman-Larsson this summer, but they had to do something to get under a salary cap ceiling that is barely increasing. Punting the problem down the road with nearly $20 million worth of dead cap space spread out until 2031 is the price that the Canucks will have to pay. Although that seems less than ideal in a league where cap efficiency matters, the Canucks are banking on the fact that the salary cap will rise more significantly than it has during the COVID years. The Canucks also no longer need to consider trading someone like Brock Boeser or Conor Garland along with a sweetener just to create cap space. (jun17)
13. If you’re wondering what on earth would bring the Canucks to make such a trade for Ekman-Larsson (full trade here), it was a desperation move by Jim Benning for the Canucks to both make the playoffs and save his job. Since neither of those happened, Canucks fans can only hope that this is the end of the inefficient signings and questionable deals that have happened far too often over the last decade.
OEL was a fixture on the second-unit power play during his two seasons there, but the Canucks already have a replacement with Filip Hronek, who would have likely leapfrogged OEL or played alongside him anyway had he stayed. It’s possible that Jack Rathbone or Christian Wolanin could squeak their way onto PP2 as well if they make the Canucks, barring other offseason transactions to upgrade the defense.
This may not be the end for Ekman-Larsson, who could sign elsewhere as a free agent. It’s probably well-known by now that he would likely slot in as a third-pairing defenseman on a short-term, low cap hit contract. His days of being a worthwhile fantasy option are probably over, though. (jun17)
14. According to Bruce Garrioch, the Senators will reportedly take Alex DeBrincat to arbitration. DeBrincat would require a $9 million qualifying offer, which the Senators might not be able to afford. If successful in arbitration, the Senators would receive a 15% discount on the $9 million. Either way, it doesn’t sound like DeBrincat will be with the Senators long-term, so the move is to simply allow them a little more cap space if they are unable to formulate a trade. I profiled DeBrincat a few weeks ago in the Ramblings, separate from the trade rumors. (jun16)
15. The New Jersey Devils took care of some important business on Thursday, signing Jesper Bratt to an eight-year, $63 million extension. For those of you in cap leagues, that works out to a $7.875 million cap hit, which comes in just under Jack Hughes‘ $8 million cap hit. In 2022-23, Bratt scored a career-high 32 goals while equaling his career high of 73 points from his breakout season of 2021-22. After being unsure about Bratt last offseason, I will more safely assume that he’s at least a near point-per-game player who can conservatively be projected for 70-80 points.
The Devils will now need to turn their attention to extending numerous other RFAs, the most notable being Timo Meier. New Jersey sent a considerable package of picks and prospects to San Jose for Meier, so I’d expect them to eventually sign Meier, although it doesn’t seem like it will be easy. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Devils intend to take Meier to arbitration just as the Sens will with DeBrincat. Signing Meier might come at the cost of Ryan Graves, who is set to become a UFA on July 1. (jun16)
16. The Rangers hired Peter Laviolette as their new head coach. His latest stop in Washington didn’t end up being the best fit for both sides, but over the last two decades Laviolette has taken three separate franchises to the Stanley Cup Final. That is the goal for the Rangers, to be able to find success in the playoffs, working around the roster they have. Secondary to that, the team needs more out of their development, which is not something Laviolette has the best track record with. Cliffy gets a little more into that with his take here. (jun14)
17. Some fantasy questions for the offseason that I think will affect the fantasy landscape for the coming season, and I’ll try to give my preliminary thoughts on them.
Which goalies will be up or down?
Projecting goalies is always the toughest part, as they fluctuate more from month to month and season to season than NHL skaters do. There are very few top-tier goalies, and even Andre Vasilevskiy has been inconsistent (or even downright bad for stretches) while Connor Hellebuyck seems to continue to follow his up and down pattern. The longer summer for Vas may pay off with a better season, while a possible trade or tear-down in Winnipeg will likely ensure that Helle does regress (perhaps substantially) from his numbers this past year.
Do we see any goalies come out of the woodworks to make impacts, like we saw with Akira Schmid, Stuart Skinner, or even Pheonix Copley the past year? There are always a couple of surprises, but those are next to impossible to project ahead of time. The changes that are more projectable and actionable are the ones with the musical chairs among teams, and the rise/fall of team strength (more on that later). (jun14)
18. What will be the impact of 2023 Draftees?
Of the top draft picks, Connor Bedard should play the full season in the NHL (98% confidence). The expectation is that Adam Fantilli should as well (70% confidence), and perhaps whoever Columbus selects third overall, as they could play a sheltered role between Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine (10% confidence). Aside from that, David Reinbacher could be ready, Ryan Leonard is physically developed, and there is always the possibility of another wildcard winning a spot in an injury-depleted lineup out of camp (maybe 25% odds we get more than half a season out of one of the other players).
We know these kinds of numbers as they are fairly consistent year to year, with only the top couple of 18-year-olds sticking. What does fluctuate though, is the production of these players. Looking back to 2019, we saw Kirby Dach and Jack Hughes each score less than 25 points through 60+ games. That may end up being more of a proper benchmark for Fantilli than where many are expecting… maybe in the 55-point range. Bedard’s numbers have already been reviewed many times, though I will reiterate that the expectation for somewhere in the ballpark of 65 points makes the most sense.
Aside from them, it’s unlikely any other 2023 draftee tops 20 points next year, but I do have a feeling that someone does. Maybe it’s Nate Danielson as a surprise second-line center for the Canucks. Or perhaps Colby Barlow just clicks for a team that can fit him in like Washington, Detroit, or Philadelphia. There is so much optimism this time of year, but the reality is that the majority of rookie and breakout candidates will disappoint. (jun14)
19. Which older players will decline?
Every year in the summer old players are underappreciated. Players like Joe Pavelski, Claude Giroux, Patrice Bergeron, Brent Burns, and even Sidney Crosby are traded for pennies on the dollar as every team tries to get younger and be ahead of the production curve.
Even the mid-tier guys like Alex Killorn, David Krejci, and Brock Nelson had some very good seasons when they were extremely cheap to acquire in the summer (I should know, I bought it on some of them then).
That’s all well and good though, but eventually players do fall off. Mark Giordano is not what he once was, neither are Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, T.J. Oshie, etc. Eventually, the production just isn’t there anymore, and when some of the star players get to a certain age, it is fair to wonder. Do the concussion issues from the playoffs slow a soon-to-be 39-year-old Joe Pavelski down? Alex Ovechkin will be 38 when next season starts, will his decline finally come? Victor Hedman may only be 32, but he has a ton of miles on him, and has been slowly getting surpassed by Mikael Sergachev. Is this the year it becomes obvious and all of your league-mates catch on to it as well?
These are the right questions to be asking, and often the right answer isn’t exactly clear. Sometimes the option to sell or buy these players is made for you if they are available super cheap (like Kane might be), or if you can still get an excellent return (like you might be able to for Hedman). (jun14)
20. Today, we will continue the playmaking data series. While a lot of our primary stats will be from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, the playmaking data itself is tracked by Corey Sznajder. The specific category we’re looking at today is simply 5-on-5 scoring chance assists (SCA/60), which measures how often a player assists on his teammate’s scoring chances. For this article, we are going to look at the biggest improvements (or declines) by scoring chance assist rate among forwards in 2022-23 when compared to 2021-22. That will naturally exclude rookies and players that were injured for extensive periods of time in either season. The defensemen will get their own shine eventually, and I discussed some changes in overall scoring chance creation from the blue line a couple months ago. This is a subject I will return to often. [Follow the link for the lists of players…] (jun13)
21. Dobber answered a host of fantasy hockey questions last week via his Twitter account. Below are just three of them, but you can follow the link for the rest:
– @Princeton1973 asked: Long term thoughts on Marchenko and Holtz?
Kirill Marchenko – A great complimentary goal-scorer, so if he can stick on Johnny Gaudreau‘s line, I think he’s a potential 75-point player. However, I don’t think he will get on that line – at least not for a sustained length of time. So, I think he ends up topping out as a 30-goal guy and low-60s for points. He had some bad luck in terms of grabbing some assists last season, otherwise he may have ended up with 40 points (he had 25, thanks to just four assists).
Alexander Holtz – Nothing has changed for me here. Holz was a seventh overall pick, so the franchise has a lot riding on him. I think he’s a buy-low acquisition right now and I think he has 70-point upside in three to four years.
– @funpatrol1 asked: How many points for Connor B next season?
Well, if I was betting big money, I would bet the over on 85 points. If I was betting small money, I would take a real swing here and bet on 105 points. I believe he’ll end up being a better player than Connor McDavid.
– @RonnieBlaydz asked: Does Dustin Wolf play in the NHL next season?
I think he gets in by midseason and backs up Jacob Markstrom. If playoffs are a factor, and Markstrom stumbles (I like Markstrom, and believe he’ll bounce back), then Wolf could steal the job temporarily. It really depends on how well the new coach (Ryan Huska!) gets this team going. If they struggle, we’ll see Wolf sooner. If they fly out the gates (as often happens with a new coach), then the Flames will wait on Wolf. The philosophy of NHL teams is that it never hurts to give a young prospect an extra year in the AHL. (jun14)
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