Whoever blinks on Sunday between Uganda and Tanzania in their respective Afcon 2023 qualifying matches could be counting their cost come September.
Uganda Cranes host Algeria far away from in Doula, Cameroon while Taifa Stars will relish their home advantage against Niger, thanks to Tanzania’s National Stadium meeting international standards.
Should both Uganda and Tanzania win their ties, they will move to seven points apiece, leaving the battle of who joins already qualified Algeria in Ivory Coast in January and February next year, when the finals will be held, to the final day in September.
Defeat for any could also open other complex permutations, where Niger could also dream again.
But to avoid all that arithmetic chaos, the Cranes must do their job against a team they have only beaten when playing in Uganda, while managing two odd draws in Algiers in as many Afcon qualifying campaigns.
Cranes coach Micho Sredojevic knows the task at hand, and after his side suffered a 1-0 friendly defeat to DRC midweek, the Serbian understands that Sunday’s all-important clash with Algeria provides no trials.
“Today we have tried, tested and experimented but Sunday we are going directly in competition,” said the 53-year-old, “There is no forgiveness.
“I know that we are carrying on our shoulders so many expectations. I want to take all the pressure away from players.
“I want them to come and show what they are capable of because we are playing an early final of the African Cup of Nations in Ivory Coast against a top-class team, Algeria on Sunday.
“There is no better chance than this match to show what is the real character and value of this team despite the fact that we are having several young players that ever in recent history of Uganda Cranes.”
One of those young players is the reason Uganda still have interest in this campaign.
Rogers Mato, the KCCA youngster, scored the only goal as Uganda beat Tanzania 1-0 in Dar es Salaam to keep the Cranes alive in the competition and is favourite to start in attack.
“We are going to play a big country,” said Mato of Algeria, “they are technically and tactically strong but we shall do our best to get positive results.”
While Mato will be probing the Algerians at the other end of the pitch, goalkeeper Salim Jamal will also be contending with danger from Uefa Champions League and Europa Conference winners in Algeria captain Riyad Mahrez and forward Saïd Benrahma.
“It is a lifetime chance for us against big players and a big team like Algeria,” said Jamal, who plays his club football with South Africa’s Richards Bay.
“With the squad we have, we just have to keep the spirit. It’s a mixture of young and experienced players. We have to keep the spirit and shape of the team for us to get the desired result on Sunday.”
Algeria coach Djamel Belmadi, whose side face the cranes today and Tunisia in a friendly on Tuesday, expressed surprise at Uganda’s choice of Cameroon to host the match, but said he would not use it as an excuse.
“In the end,” said Belmadi, “this is not a problem for us. We have previously played in this stadium and we will go back and try to get a positive result.”
If there is anything to encourage Uganda, Algeria never won any game at Douala’s Japoma Stadium, today’s match venue, during the 2021 Afcon finals.
They lost their two group matches and drew the other to exit as fallen defending champions.
Against DRC on Wednesday, Micho showed rare willingness to attack in his starting lineup.
If we are to go by that, the minor changes could be Khalid Aucho, who was rested midweek, tightening up the middle of the park and defender Geoffrey Wasswa’s slight experience favoured ahead of Gift Fred.
To tap more into the industry of Isma Mugulusi, Bobosi Byaruhanga, Moses Waisswa, Faruku Miya, Milton Karisa and Faruku Miya, Micho will have to drop either captain Emmanuel Okwi or Fahad Bayo, with Mato favourite to start.
Salim Jamal, Halid Lwaliwa, Geoffrey Wasswa, Noah Ssemakula, Aziz Kayondo, Khalid Aucho, Isma Mugulusi, Bobosi Byaruhanga, Fahad Bayo, Rogers Mato, Emmanuel Okwi
Substitutes: Charles Lukwago, Nafian Alionzi (GKs), Gift Fred, Rogers Torach, Siraje Ssentamu, Moses Waiswa, Faruku Miya, Milton Karisa, Travis Mutyaba, Richard Basangwa
Goalkeepers: Moustapha Zeghba (Damac, Saudi Arabia), Anthony Mandrea (Caen, France), Oussama Benbot (USM Alger, Algeria)
Defenders: Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Guitoun (Bastia, France), Mehdi Leris (Sampdoria, Italy), Aissa Mandi (Villarreal, Spain), Zineddine Belaid (USM Alger, Algeria), Mohamed Amine Tougai (Esperance de Tunis, Tunisia), Ramy Bensabaini (Gladbach, Germany), Haithem Loucif (USM Alger, Algeria), Jaouen Hadjam (Nantes, France), Ahmed Touba (İstanbul Başakşehir, Turkey)
Midfielders: Hicham Boudaoui (OGC Nice, France), Nabil Bentaleb (Angers, France), Victor Lekhal (Le Harve, France), Ramiz Zerrouki (FC Twente, Netherlands), Hossem Aouar (Olympique Lyon, France), Himad Abdelli (Angers, France)
Forwards: Riyad Mahrez (Manchester City, England), Badredine Bouanani (OGC Nice, France), Said Benrahma (West Ham, England), Farès Chaïbi (Toulouse, France), Mohamed El Amine Amoura (Lugano, Switzerland), Islam Slimani (Anderlecht, Belgium), Baghdad Bounedjah (Al Sadd, Qatar), Aymen Mahious (USM Alger, Algeria)